Zinc oxide

Zinc Oxide Recent Commodity Market Dynamics IntelligenceI. Price Trends1. **Domestic Market**: Recently, the domestic zinc oxide market has shown a slight upward fluctuation. The ex-factory price (tax-included) for 99.7% zinc oxide in major regions is in the range of 18,000-19,500 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 2%-3% compared to the beginning of the month. Among them, the price increase in North China is slightly higher than in East and South China due to tight raw material supply.2. **International Market**: International zinc oxide prices are affected by USD exchange rate fluctuations and changes in overseas demand, showing regional differentiation. Due to high energy costs, the European market price remains at 2,800-3,000 USD/ton (CFR Europe), up approximately 5% from last month; the Southeast Asian market price remains stable at 2,500-2,600 USD/ton (CFR Southeast Asia) due to weak demand.II. Supply and Demand Dynamics1. **Supply Side**: - The domestic zinc oxide capacity utilization rate is about 75%, up 2 percentage points from last month, but some enterprises' operating rates remain below the same period last year due to environmental production restrictions or insufficient supply of zinc concentrate raw materials. - In terms of imports, August zinc oxide import volume decreased by 10% month-on-month, mainly due to the weakening price advantage of overseas products and slowing domestic demand growth.2. **Demand Side**: - Rubber Industry: Tire companies' operating rates remain at a high level (about 70%), with stable demand for zinc oxide, but the procurement pace has slowed somewhat due to a slowdown in export orders. - Ceramics and Coatings Industries: Downstream ceramic companies' demand decreased by about 15% year-on-year due to the sluggish real estate sector; the coatings industry has seen structural adjustments in zinc oxide demand due to environmental policies promoting the substitution of water-based coatings, but the total volume has not changed significantly. - New Energy Sector: Demand for high-purity zinc oxide in lithium battery cathode materials has grown significantly, but the proportion remains low (about 5%) and has not yet formed a clear pull on the overall market.III. Cost Side1. **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices have continued to rise to 23,000-24,000 RMB/ton (tax-included), up about 8% from last month, due to overseas mine production cuts and low inventory levels, thereby increasing the production cost of zinc oxide.2. **Energy Costs**: Coal prices remain at high levels, increasing the energy cost in the zinc oxide production process by about 10%, further compressing enterprise profit margins.IV. Inventory Dynamics1. **Domestic Inventory**: The total social inventory of zinc oxide is about 12,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last month, mainly due to downstream companies restocking at low prices and tight supply.2. **Port Inventory**: The imported zinc oxide inventory at major ports is about 8,000 tons, down 15% month-on-month, indicating limited replenishment of imported supplies.V. Analysis and Judgment1. **Short-term (1-2 weeks)**: Supported by high zinc concentrate prices and downstream essential restocking, zinc oxide prices may maintain a strong fluctuation, but the increase will be limited. The mainstream price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 18,500-19,500 RMB/ton.2. **Medium-term (1-3 months)**: If the tight supply situation of zinc concentrate eases or downstream demand in the rubber and ceramics industries weakens further, zinc oxide prices may face downward pressure, but demand growth in the new energy sector may provide some support.3. **Long-term (3-6 months)**: Attention needs to be paid to the progress of overseas mine production resumption, domestic environmental policies, and the pull effect of the new energy industry on zinc oxide demand. If zinc concentrate supply remains tight, zinc oxide prices may continue to run at high levels; if demand-side weakness intensifies, prices may be under downward pressure.VI. Forecast1. **Price Forecast**: The mainstream price of zinc oxide in September is expected to operate in the range of 18,000-20,000 RMB/ton, while international market prices will maintain a differentiated trend due to regional supply and demand differences.2. **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The domestic zinc oxide capacity utilization rate may rise slightly to 80%, but import volume will be difficult to increase significantly due to overseas prices and demand; downstream demand in the rubber and ceramics industries may continue to be weak, while the potential for demand growth in the new energy sector awaits release.3. **Risk Points**: Supply disruption of zinc concentrate, stricter environmental policies, and demand decline due to overseas economic recession.