2-Morpholinepropanoic acid, 4-[(1,1-dimethylethoxy)carbonyl]-, ethyl ester, (2S)-

Recent Market Dynamics Report on Ethyl Acetate

I. Price Trends

1. Domestic Market:
- East China: Ethyl acetate prices have shown slight fluctuations recently, with main transaction prices ranging from 7,800 to 8,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 1.5% compared to last week.
- South China: Prices remain relatively stable, with main transaction prices ranging from 7,900 to 8,100 RMB/ton, basically flat compared to last week.
- North China: Prices have seen a slight increase, with main transaction prices ranging from 7,700 to 7,900 RMB/ton, representing an increase of about 1%.

2. International Market:
- Asia: The FOB Korea price for ethyl acetate is between $950 and $980 per ton, up approximately 3% from last month, primarily driven by increased demand.
- Europe: The CIF Rotterdam price is between €1,050 and €1,080 per ton, remaining stable due to balanced supply and demand.
- North America: The FOB US Gulf price is between $1,000 and $1,030 per ton, showing a slight increase of approximately 2%.

II. Supply and Demand Situation

1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Capacity Utilization: The operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has maintained around 85% recently. Although some units are paused for maintenance, overall supply remains sufficient.
- New Capacity: There are no plans for the commissioning of new large-scale ethyl acetate production units, limiting supply growth.
- Import Volume: August ethyl acetate imports amounted to approximately 50,000 tons, a 10% month-on-month increase, primarily sourced from South Korea and Southeast Asia.

2. Demand Side:
- Domestic Demand: Demand from downstream industries such as coatings and inks remains stable. Some enterprises have increased procurement volumes due to the approaching peak season, driving demand growth.
- Export Demand: August ethyl acetate exports totaled approximately 30,000 tons, an 8% month-on-month increase, mainly exported to India, Southeast Asia, and other regions.
- Impact of Substitutes: Prices of substitutes such as ethyl propionate remain stable, having a limited impact on ethyl acetate demand.

III. Costs and Profits

1. Raw Material Costs:
- Ethanol Prices: Ethanol prices have seen a slight increase recently, with main transaction prices ranging from 6,800 to 7,000 RMB/ton, up approximately 2%, strengthening the cost support for ethyl acetate.
- Acetic Acid Prices: Acetic acid prices remain stable, with main transaction prices ranging from 3,200 to 3,400 RMB/ton, having a minimal impact on ethyl acetate costs.

2. Production Profits:
- Domestic ethyl acetate production profits are maintained at 200-300 RMB/ton. Although slightly lower than last month, they remain within a reasonable range.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Dynamics

1. Environmental Policies: Stricter environmental regulations in China have led to the shutdown of some small-scale ethyl acetate units that failed to meet environmental standards, further increasing industry concentration.
2. Trade Policies: The impact of US-China trade tensions on ethyl acetate imports and exports is limited, but subsequent tariff changes require monitoring.
3. Industry News: A major ethyl acetate producer plans to undergo unit maintenance in the fourth quarter, expected to affect production volume by approximately 10,000 tons.

V. Analysis, Judgment, and Forecast

1. Short-term (1-2 weeks):
- Price Trend: Domestic ethyl acetate prices are expected to maintain slight fluctuations, with East China prices likely ranging between 7,800 and 8,050 RMB/ton.
- Supply and Demand: Supply remains generally stable, while demand is supported by the approaching peak season, limiting the extent of price increases.

2. Medium-term (1-2 months):
- Price Trend: Influenced by rising ethanol prices, cost support for ethyl acetate will strengthen, potentially pushing prices slightly up to 8,000-8,200 RMB/ton.
- Supply and Demand: Demand remains continuously stable. Supply may tighten slightly due to unit maintenance, but overall supply and demand will remain balanced.

3. Long-term (3-6 months):
- Price Trend: If ethanol prices continue to rise, ethyl acetate prices may further increase to 8,200-8,500 RMB/ton; if ethanol prices fall back, ethyl acetate prices may correct to around 8,000 RMB/ton.
- Supply and Demand: Attention should be paid to the release of new capacity and changes in downstream demand. Without significant incremental supply, prices will likely remain within a fluctuating range.