Glycidyl Neodecanoate

# Recent Commodity Market Dynamics, Intelligence, and Forecast Analysis for Epoxidized Undecylenic Acid (EPDA)

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## I. Price Dynamics Intelligence Over the Past Month (Mid-October to Mid-November 2026)

| Date | Source | Core Information |
|------|--------|------------------|
| 2026-11-10 | SunSirs Benchmark Price | Released daily trading guidance price, including adjustment coefficient K (accounting period costs) and premium/discount C (logistics, brand, and regional price differentials). |
| 2026-11-09 | SunSirs Benchmark Price | Continuation of the daily reporting mechanism; price model continuously updated. |
| 2026-11-06 | SunSirs Benchmark Price | First quotation day of the week; price signal released. |
| 2026-10-31 | GuideChem.com / Tianmen Hengchang Chemical | Supplier in Tianmen, Hubei Province quoted \"Price on Inquiry\" (POI), purity 99%, pharmaceutical grade, packaging options of 25kg/1kg/200kg, total supply capacity of 10,000 kg. |
| 2026-10-12 | Industry Exhibition Dynamics | Anhui Yixing New Materials (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Anhui Xinyuan Technology, a National Single-Item Manufacturing Champion) showcased Epoxidized Undecylenic Acid (E10P) at the Dongguan Metalworking Fluid Conference, with a designed annual production capacity of 30,000 tons. |

**Intelligence Assessment:** Over the past month, SunSirs has released three benchmark prices (on November 6, 9, and 10), indicating high trading activity for this product and the need for close monitoring of price fluctuations. However, specific numerical values have not been disclosed in public intelligence, with prices presented only as \"Price on Inquiry.\" This indicates that current market pricing remains primarily on a case-by-case basis, with limited standardization.

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## II. Market Fundamental Data Anchoring

| Indicator | Data | Source/Time |
|-----------|------|-------------|
| 2025 Global Sales | USD 151 million | QYResearch, February 2026 |
| 2032 Global Sales Forecast | USD 216 million | CAGR 5.3% (2026-2032) |
| 2025 Global Production | 31.06 thousand tons | — |
| 2025 Average Selling Price | USD 4,861/ton | — |
| Annual Production Capacity | 50 thousand tons | — |
| Gross Margin Range | 20%-35% | — |
| Global Undecylenic Acid Market (Upstream) 2022 Size | USD 514 million | Projected to reach USD 605 million by 2029, CAGR 6.0% |
| China Undecylenic Acid Market Share | 46.63% (2022) → Projected 50.69% (2029) | — |

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## III. Supply-Side Dynamics Analysis

### 3.1 Production Capacity Landscape
- **Global Capacity:** Approximately 50,000 tons/year. Current capacity utilization has not shown signs of saturation, leaving room for expansion.
- **Rise of New Chinese Forces:** Anhui Yixing New Materials, with a designed annual capacity of 30,000 tons and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Anhui Xinyuan Technology (a National Single-Item Manufacturing Champion), will significantly enhance domestic supply capabilities upon entry.
- **Key Manufacturers:** The global first tier consists of Hexion and Tianjin Siyou, jointly accounting for approximately 75.80% of market share; the second tier includes ExxonMobil at 18.70%. In China, apart from Tianjin Siyou, institutions such as the Southwest Research Institute of Chemical Industry have technical reserves but have not yet achieved industrialization.

### 3.2 Supply Pressure Assessment
> ?? If Anhui Yixing’s 30,000-ton capacity is put into operation as scheduled, domestic EPDA supply will leap to a new level, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices in the short term. However, considering that total global capacity is only 50,000 tons, the new capacity represents a 60% increase, necessitating vigilance against the risk of oversupply.

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## IV. Demand-Side Dynamics Analysis

| Application Area | Current Status and Trends |
|------------------|---------------------------|
| **Automotive Coatings** | Core application. EPDA provides water resistance, UV resistance, and chemical resistance. The trend of lightweighting in new energy vehicles drives demand. |
| **Industrial Coatings** | Steady growth, with rigid demand for corrosion and weather resistance. |
| **Architectural Coatings** | Gradual volume increase following infrastructure recovery. |
| **Metalworking Fluids** | Anhui Yixing New Materials’ exhibition signal indicates that this sector is being actively developed. |

**Demand Assessment:** The coatings sector remains the \"ballast\" demand for EPDA. In 2025, global coatings applications accounted for approximately 27%, with a future CAGR of about 7.65%. Driven by the dual engines of new energy vehicles and green buildings, the demand side is positive in the medium to long term.

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## V. Price Trend Judgment

### 5.1 Short-Term (Next 1-3 Months)
- The continuous daily reports from SunSirs signal high market trading frequency, but the \"Price on Inquiry\" pricing model indicates intense bargaining between buyers and sellers.
- **Judgment:** Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, estimated at USD 4,600-5,100/ton (approximately RMB 33,000-37,000/ton), constrained by the dual costs of raw material undecylenic acid and epichlorohydrin.

### 5.2 Medium-Term (2027-2028)
- The release of new capacities from companies like Anhui Yixing will disrupt the existing supply-demand balance, potentially shifting the price center downward by 5%-10%.
- However, sustained volume growth in downstream coatings demand can partially offset the supply shock.

### 5.3 Long-Term (2029-2032)
- Under the moderate growth expectation of a global CAGR of 5.3%, prices will tend to stabilize, with gross margins maintained in the 20%-35% range, and the industry entering a phase of \"volume growth and price stability.\"

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## VI. Risk Warnings

| Risk Type | Specific Description |
|-----------|----------------------|
| ?? Oversupply Risk | Concentrated release of new domestic capacity; if demand falls short of expectations, price wars are inevitable. |
| ?? Raw Material Fluctuation Risk | Undecylenic acid (tertiary carboxylic acid) is highly sensitive to petrochemical-based raw material prices, with direct upstream cost transmission. |
| ?? Policy Benefit Risk | Stricter environmental policies promote the substitution of solvent-based coatings with water-based coatings, benefiting EPDA as a green functional monomer. |
| ?? Intensifying Competition Risk | Multi-party competition among international giants (Hexion, ExxonMobil) and domestic players (Tianjin Siyou, new entrants). |

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## VII. Core Conclusions and Operational Recommendations

| Dimension | Judgment |
|-----------|----------|
| **Market Qualitative** | A moderately growing niche sector; short-term supply disturbances outweigh demand changes. |
| **Price Direction** | Short-term oscillation with a bearish bias, medium-term pressure, long-term stabilization and recovery. |
| **Investment Logic** | Focus on the alignment between the pace of capacity realization and the prosperity of downstream coatings. |
| **Procurement Strategy** | Under the current \"Price on Inquiry\" model, it is recommended to lock in long-term agreements and diversify procurement to mitigate single-point price volatility. |
| **Sales Strategy** | Producers should accelerate inventory reduction and capture market share during the window period before new capacity is commissioned. |

> **One-Sentence Summary:** Epoxidized Undecylenic Acid is at a critical turning point of \"old structure loosening and new forces entering\"—short-term outlook depends on supply, medium-term on demand, and long-term on the dividends from green coating substitution.