Calcium propionate

Recent Market Dynamics of Calcium Propionate

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: Over the past week, the mainstream market price of calcium propionate in East China has been 12,000-13,000 RMB/ton, representing a slight increase of 2%-3% compared to the previous week. In South China, prices range from 12,500-13,500 RMB/ton, with an increase of approximately 3%-4%.
- International Market: The price of calcium propionate in the European market is 1,800-2,000 USD/ton (FOB Rotterdam), remaining relatively stable. In the US market, prices are 1,900-2,100 USD/ton (FOB Houston), showing a slight upward trend of 1%-2%.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Production Capacity: The operating rate of major domestic calcium propionate manufacturers is maintained at 75%-80%. Although production has slightly decreased due to equipment maintenance at some enterprises, overall supply capacity remains sufficient to meet market demand.
- Imports: Recent import volumes of calcium propionate have decreased, primarily due to rising transportation costs in certain international regions and suppliers prioritizing local market supply. As a result, import arrivals have declined by approximately 15% compared to the previous month.

3. Demand Situation
- Food Industry: As the primary consumption sector for calcium propionate, demand in the food industry is steadily growing. With the arrival of summer, increased consumption of beverages and baked goods has led to a corresponding rise in demand for calcium propionate as a preservative. Demand is expected to increase by 8%-10% compared to the previous month.
- Feed Industry: Demand for calcium propionate in the feed industry is also on the rise. Driven by a recovery in the livestock and poultry industry and increased feed production, demand for calcium propionate is expected to grow by 5%-7%.

4. Cost Factors
- Raw Materials: The price of propionic acid, a key raw material, has recently fluctuated. The domestic market price of propionic acid is 9,000-10,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 3%-5% from the previous month, which has somewhat increased the production cost of calcium propionate.
- Energy Prices: Energy prices, including coal and natural gas, have remained relatively stable, exerting minimal impact on the production costs of calcium propionate.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Reasons for Price Increase: Domestic demand has increased, particularly in the food and feed industries. Meanwhile, supply has tightened due to equipment maintenance at some enterprises and reduced imports, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance that has pushed prices up. Additionally, the rise in the price of the raw material propionic acid has provided further support to calcium propionate prices.
2. Market Supply-Demand Structure: The market is currently in a relatively balanced but slightly tight state, with demand growing slightly faster than supply. This supply-demand structure is expected to persist in the short term.

Forecast
1. Price Trends: Over the next week, calcium propionate prices are expected to maintain a steady upward trend. Domestic market prices may increase by 2%-3%, while international market prices are likely to follow the domestic market with a slight rise.
2. Supply-Demand Changes: As equipment maintenance concludes, domestic supply will gradually increase. However, demand growth is expected to continue, meaning the supply-demand relationship is unlikely to undergo fundamental changes in the short term. In the long term, if propionic acid prices continue to rise or demand increases significantly, the supply-demand imbalance in the calcium propionate market may intensify.