Hydrogenated Cardanol

# Cashew Phenol Market Dynamics Intelligence (Mid-October to Mid-November 2026)

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## I. Price Overview

| Product | Specification | Quoted Range | Time Node | Trend |
|---------|---------------|--------------|-----------|-------|
| Crude Cashew Phenol (Vietnam origin) | Monophenol content 78-85%, Viscosity 140-210 CPS, 950kg/drum | 7,400 RMB/ton | Oct 21 | ↑ |
| Crude Cashew Phenol (Vietnam origin) | Decarboxylated cashew oil, Viscosity 140-200 | 7,000 RMB/ton | Oct 21 | ↑ |
| Crude Cashew Phenol (Vietnam origin) | Same as above two specifications | 6,100-6,600 RMB/ton | Aug 27 | Baseline |
| High-purity Cashew Phenol | Bulk liquid, HPLC >98% | SunSirs benchmark price continuously released | Nov 6/9/10 | Monitoring |
| Cashew Phenol Polyoxyethylene Ether | — | SunSirs benchmark price released | Nov 10 | Monitoring |

**Core Data**: The mainstream quoted price for crude cashew phenol has surged from 6,100-6,600 RMB/ton at the end of August to 7,000-7,400 RMB/ton in late October, representing an increase of **12%-21%**. The three-month average price is 6,213 RMB/ton, with current prices at an **annual high**.

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## II. Supply-Side Intelligence

1. Tightening Domestic Supply
- Due to **seasonal fluctuations in raw cashew shell supply**, production rates have decreased at major domestic crude cashew phenol production sites, reducing overall market supply by approximately **15%** compared to previous periods.
- Manufacturer inventory levels are at a low, with average inventory turnover days **shortened by 3-5 days** compared to before; some manufacturers are facing inventory shortages.

2. Blocked Import Channels
- Hit by the dual impact of rising international logistics costs and adjustments in export policies from some producing countries, the arrival volume of imported crude cashew phenol is **delayed by approximately 20%**.
- Import landed prices have risen by approximately **10%** compared to the previous period, significantly squeezing importer profit margins.

3. Diverging Trader Inventories
- Large traders have sufficient prior reserves and relatively stable inventories; small and medium traders face inventory shortages and have a strong willingness to restock, exacerbating short-term supply-demand tightness.

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## III. Demand-Side Intelligence

| Downstream Industry | Demand Status | Key Signals |
|---------------------|---------------|-------------|
| **Paint Industry** | Strong Growth | Entering the traditional peak season, order volume from large enterprises increased by **25%** week-on-week, with a preference for high-quality products |
| **Rubber Industry** | Stable Rigid Demand | Small and medium enterprises purchase as needed, high price sensitivity, strong cost control intent |
| **Pesticide Industry** | Structural Upgrade | Environmental policies forcing process adjustments, increased demand for specific specification products |
| **New Energy/Biomedicine** | Explosive Growth | Demand in high-tech sectors is climbing exponentially, with significant long-term incremental potential |

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## IV. Market Driving Factor Analysis

**Upward Push (Triple Overlap)**:
1. **Supply Contraction** — Seasonal raw material shortage + import delays, creating a \"double kill\" effect;
2. **Peak Season Demand** — Traditional peak season for the paint industry combined with explosive growth in emerging sectors, full firepower on the demand side;
3. **Inventory Depletion** — Double low in manufacturer and small/medium trader inventories, the market \"reservoir\" is nearly dry.

**Potential Suppressing Factors**:
- High prices may suppress the procurement pace of some price-sensitive downstream sectors;
- Stricter environmental policies form a continuous constraint on the production end.

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## V. Analytical Judgment

**Current Qualitative Assessment: A strong upward market driven by supply-demand imbalance, with short-term inertia still present.**

Crude cashew phenol has climbed from 6,100 RMB/ton at the end of August to 7,400 RMB/ton in just two months, an increase of over 20%. This is not a simple seasonal fluctuation, but the result of the **resonance between structural shortage on the raw material end and structural upgrading on the demand end**. Particularly worth noting is that the demand structure changes in the pesticide industry driven by environmental policy adjustments are reshaping the supply-demand landscape for specific specification products, potentially giving rise to new price highs.

Regarding high-purity cashew phenol (HPLC >98%), SunSirs has continuously released price dynamics on Nov 6, 9, and 10, indicating that market attention to high-end products is continuously heating up. However, specific transaction prices have not been fully disclosed and require close tracking.

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## VI. Forecast Outlook

| Time Dimension | Price Prediction | Core Logic |
|----------------|------------------|------------|
| **Short-term (1-2 weeks)** | Continue to rise 5%-8% | Dual support from supply tightness + peak season demand, inertial upward movement |
| **Medium-term (1-2 months)** | Growth narrows, tending to high-level oscillation | Easing of seasonal raw material issues + recovery of import arrivals, supply increment offsets demand |
| **Long-term (3-6 months)** | Stable with slight increase, center of gravity moves up | Continuous volume expansion in downstream new energy and biomedicine, strong price resilience if raw material supply is guaranteed |

**Risk Warning**: If there is a major interruption in raw material supply or downstream demand shrinks due to macroeconomic slowdown, prices face the risk of falling from high levels; conversely, if emerging application sectors exceed expectations in their explosion, 7,400 RMB/ton is by no means the ceiling.

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## VII. Strategic Recommendations

- **Buyers**: It is advisable to moderately lock in volumes at the current time to avoid chasing highs; watch for restocking opportunities during the import arrival window in 1-2 months.
- **Producers**: Accelerate raw material reserves and flexible capacity allocation, seizing the high-price window to release profits.
- **Investors**: Focus on enterprises with raw material control and high-purity product lines, as well as cashew phenol application expansion targets in new energy and biomedicine sectors.