1,3-Pentadiene

m-Cyclopentadiene Recent Commodity Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
Price Trends
- Recent Price Data: From July 17 to July 27, 2026, the national average price of m-cyclopentadiene in mainstream markets exhibited a volatile upward trend. On July 17, the average price stood at RMB 7,069.2 per ton; it rose to RMB 7,169.2 per ton on July 20—a 1.41% increase; edged up further to RMB 7,199.2 per ton on July 21—a 0.42% increase; advanced to RMB 7,250.4 per ton on July 24—a 0.71% increase; and reached RMB 7,345.2 per ton on July 27—a 1.31% increase.
- Regional Price Variation: As of July 27, 2026, prices varied across regions. Key producers’ quotations were as follows:
- Liaoning Beihua Luhua: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Sinopec SK Hydrocarbon: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Yanshan Petrochemical: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Fushun Ikos: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Huizhou ISCO: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Zhanjiang Zhonghe: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.
- Daqing Huake: Prices adjusted dynamically with market conditions.

Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Domestic m-cyclopentadiene production capacity is concentrated primarily in the East and South China regions. In recent years, continuous commissioning of ethylene cracking capacity has increased the supply of cracked C5 feedstock, thereby expanding raw material availability for m-cyclopentadiene production. However, suboptimal operating rates at certain cracked C5 separation units—and relatively low m-cyclopentadiene content in cracked C5 feedstock from newly commissioned facilities—have constrained actual output.
- Recent quotation dynamics indicate that some producers have suspended quotations, potentially reflecting supply-side uncertainty.
- Demand Side:
- Primary downstream applications of m-cyclopentadiene include m-cyclopentadiene-based resins, widely used in adhesives, coatings, and rubber industries. Steady growth in downstream sectors has driven rising demand for m-cyclopentadiene.
- Recently, demand for m-cyclopentadiene-based resins has improved, prompting resin manufacturers to resume operations, thereby increasing demand for m-cyclopentadiene—a key driver behind the recent price uptrend.

Related Product Market Conditions
- Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD): As another major component separated from cracked C5, its price movement serves as a reference for the m-cyclopentadiene market. From July 17 to July 24, 2026, the national average price of DCPD in mainstream markets rose—from RMB 6,938.33 to RMB 7,106.67 per ton.
- Isoprene: Another cracked C5 derivative, its supply-demand balance and price fluctuations also influence the m-cyclopentadiene market. Since July 2024, isoprene supply has been tight, driving substantial price increases—potentially prompting some downstream users to adjust procurement strategies and increase reliance on m-cyclopentadiene.

II. Analysis and Assessment
Reasons for Price Increase
- Demand Pull: Improved demand for m-cyclopentadiene-based resins and higher operating rates among resin manufacturers constitute the primary driver behind rising m-cyclopentadiene prices.
- Cost Support: Cracked C5—the principal raw material for m-cyclopentadiene—is subject to price volatility, directly impacting production costs. Although increased ethylene cracking capacity has boosted cracked C5 supply recently, suboptimal separation unit utilization and feedstock quality issues have kept m-cyclopentadiene production costs elevated, providing firm price support.
- Market Sentiment: Optimistic market expectations regarding m-cyclopentadiene’s outlook have spurred active purchasing by traders and downstream users, further fueling price gains.

Market Risk Factors
- Supply-Increase Risk: If cracked C5 separation unit utilization improves significantly—or newly commissioned separation facilities achieve stable operation—m-cyclopentadiene output could surge substantially, leading to oversupply and downward price pressure.
- Demand-Shortfall Risk: Downstream sectors—including adhesives, coatings, and rubber—are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory policies. Should demand growth fall short of expectations, downward pressure on m-cyclopentadiene pricing will likely intensify.
- Feedstock Price Volatility Risk: Cracked C5 prices are heavily influenced by crude oil prices and ethylene market supply-demand dynamics. Significant feedstock price fluctuations would directly affect m-cyclopentadiene production costs and market pricing.

III. Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (1–3 Months)
- Price Trend: M-cyclopentadiene prices are expected to remain range-bound at elevated levels. Robust downstream resin demand will sustain strong consumption, while limited near-term supply expansion and solid cost support will underpin prices. However, as prices rise, downstream buyers may become increasingly price-sensitive, potentially slowing transaction volumes and restraining further upside.
- Supply-Demand Balance: On the supply side, producers that suspended quotations may gradually resume offering prices, modestly increasing available supply. On the demand side, resin manufacturers are projected to maintain high operating rates—but procurement pace may decelerate.

Long-Term Outlook (3+ Months)
- Price Trend: Over the longer term, m-cyclopentadiene prices are anticipated to gradually revert toward rational equilibrium levels. As newly commissioned cracked C5 separation facilities progressively come online, overall market supply will expand, easing supply-demand imbalances. Concurrently, downstream demand growth will stabilize, diminishing its upward price impact.
- Market Development Trends: The m-cyclopentadiene industry will evolve toward greater scale and concentration, with large-scale enterprises gaining competitive advantage through technological leadership, cost efficiency, and economies of scale. Furthermore, tightening environmental regulations will drive increased investment in green production technologies, promoting sustainable industry development.