1,3-Pentadiene

## Isoprene Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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### I. Price Overview

| Time Point | Price/Quote | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | 9,600 CNY/ton | Gaide Chemical Network benchmark price; 3-month average price is 9,009 CNY/ton |
| Oct 16 | 12,000–13,000 CNY/ton (domestic mainstream) | Range quote; regional fluctuations of ±500 CNY/ton |
| Oct 28 | Sino-Korea Petrochemical: 10,200 CNY/ton; Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical: 10,900 CNY/ton (≥70% purity) | Longzhong Information enterprise quotes |
| Oct 29 | Partial market increase | Supply remains low due to raw material constraints; manufacturers maintain firm prices |
| Nov 6/9/10 | Updated benchmark prices from SunSirs | Specific values not disclosed; model continues to track |

**International Market Reference:**
- Asia FOB Korea: USD 1,500–1,600/ton (mid-October)
- European Market: USD 1,800–1,900/ton (pushed up by logistics costs)

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### II. Supply-Side Dynamics

1. **Unit Operating Status**
- Major producers such as Sinopec Qilu and Yangzi Petrochemical maintain operating rates of 80%–85%, with overall stable production.
- Sino-Korea Petrochemical's C5 separation unit is operating normally (confirmed on Oct 28).
- Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical's C5 separation unit is operating normally (confirmed on Oct 28).
- Some units have experienced temporary regional supply tightness due to routine maintenance.

2. **Raw Material Costs**
- Cracked C5 raw material prices remain at 5,000–5,500 CNY/ton. Influenced by crude oil fluctuations, cost support is strong.
- On Oct 8, strong trends in crude oil and bulk chemical futures further boosted the cost side and trading sentiment.

3. **Import Situation**
- Import volumes decreased by approximately 10% month-on-month. Southeast Asian suppliers prioritize local demand, reducing exports to China.
- Rising international shipping costs have increased import expenses, causing some traders to suspend quotes for forward contracts.

4. **Inventory Levels**
- Total domestic social inventory is approximately 12,000 tons, down 8% month-on-month due to increased downstream procurement and export order fulfillment.

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### III. Demand-Side Dynamics

1. **Downstream Operating Rates**
- Operating rates in the resin and rubber industries have recovered to 75%–80%, leading to steady growth in isoprene demand.
- Procurement is primarily driven by essential needs, with low willingness to stockpile as downstream buyers wait to digest existing inventories.

2. **Downstream Risk Warnings**
- The resin industry plans concentrated maintenance next quarter, which may exert phased pressure on isoprene demand.

3. **Export Market**
- Affected by rising shipping costs, some export orders have delayed delivery, slowing the pace of demand release.

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### IV. Policy and External Environment

- **Environmental Policies**: Some regions have strengthened VOCs emission controls. Production and transportation must meet higher environmental standards, increasing short-term operational costs for enterprises.
- **Crude Oil Disturbances**: Since October, crude oil price fluctuations have transmitted to the chemical product market, causing industry participants to operate cautiously.

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### V. Analytical Assessment

| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| **Short-term Supply & Demand** | Supply is tight due to maintenance and raw material constraints; demand is supported by essential needs but lacks stockpiling, intensifying supply-demand dynamics |
| **Cost Support** | High-level cracked C5 raw material prices + increased environmental costs provide clear cost-side support |
| **Price Trend** | Prices gradually recovered from 9,600 CNY/ton in mid-October to the 10,200–10,900 CNY/ton range in late October, showing a fluctuating upward trend |
| **Market Sentiment** | Holders are firm and reluctant to sell; downstream buyers are in wait-and-see mode; transactions are limited to essential needs |

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### VI. Forecast (Next 1–3 Months)

| Period | Price Forecast Range | Core Logic |
|---|---|---|
| **Short-term (1–2 weeks)** | 10,000–11,500 CNY/ton | Tight supply + cost support; prices expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias |
| **Medium-term (1–2 months)** | 9,500–11,000 CNY/ton | Downstream resin maintenance will suppress demand, but cost declines will be limited |
| **Long-term (3–6 months)** | 9,000–10,500 CNY/ton | Global cracking unit operating rates will recover, increasing raw material supply and pressuring prices |

**International Market Forecast:**
- FOB Korea: USD 1,450–1,650/ton
- Europe: USD 1,700–1,900/ton (logistics costs continue to provide support)

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### VII. Risk Warnings

1. **Significant Crude Oil Price Fluctuations**: A sharp drop in international oil prices would lower cracked C5 costs, directly dragging down isoprene prices.
2. **Excessive Downstream Maintenance**: If concentrated maintenance in the resin industry occurs earlier or on a larger scale, the impact on demand will exceed expectations.
3. **Escalating International Trade Frictions**: Reduced imports combined with trade policy changes could either intensify domestic supply tightness or release alternative sources.
4. **Stricter Environmental Policies**: Tighter VOCs controls may force some small and medium-sized enterprises to reduce production passively, further tightening short-term supply.