Chlorosulfonated Polyethylene

# Market Intelligence on Recent Commercial Dynamics of Chlorosulfonated Polyethylene (CSM)

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## I. Price Quick View (Mid-October to November 12, 2026)

| Date | Quoting Entity | Tax-inclusive Price (CNY/ton) | Delivery Location | Specification | Quantity | Validity |
|------|----------------|-------------------------------|-------------------|---------------|----------|----------|
| Nov 3 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | 22,000 | Nantong, Jiangsu | National Standard | 200 tons | 3 days |
| Nov 4 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | 22,000 | Nantong, Jiangsu | National Standard | 200 tons | 3 days |
| Nov 5 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | 22,000 | Nantong, Jiangsu | National Standard | 200 tons | 3 days |
| Nov 9 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | 22,000 | Nantong, Jiangsu | National Standard | 200 tons | 3 days |
| Nov 10 | Nantong Zhonghe Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. | 22,000 | Nantong, Jiangsu | National Standard | 200 tons | 3 days |

**Market Average Price (Gaide Chemical Network, updated on Nov 5): 22,000 CNY/ton**

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## II. Analysis of Market Dynamics Characteristics

1. **Price Trend: Horizontal Consolidation at Bottom, No Movement**

Over the past month, CSM quotes have exhibited a rare \"iron-clad\" stability—from November 3 to November 10, Nantong Zhonghe Chemical maintained its quote at 22,000 CNY/ton for eight consecutive days without any fluctuation. This price represents a significant decline of approximately 26.7% from the historical high of 30,000 CNY/ton recorded in March 2024, reflecting a profound reshaping of the industry's supply and demand landscape.

2. **Supply Side: Capacity Release and Operating Rate Negotiation**

Current major domestic producers include Jilin Petrochemical, Lianyungang JTD Rubber Materials, Jiangxi Hongrun Chemical, and Hejian Lixing Special Rubber, among others. Judging by the stability of quotes, there are no signs of drastic contraction or expansion on the supply side. Enterprises are primarily adopting a strategy of stable pricing to facilitate shipments. The listed volume of 200 tons per batch indicates that midstream traders are operating in a small-batch, fast-turnover mode.

3. **Demand Side: Essential Demand Provides a Floor, Limited Incremental Growth**

The core downstream applications of CSM include building waterproofing (roof membranes, sealants), automotive parts (gaskets, hoses, cable insulation), industrial products (conveyor belts, protective coatings), and wire and cable. Current end-user demand is characterized by \"steady but weak essential demand and insufficient elasticity.\" While the construction and automotive sectors provide baseline consumption support, there is a lack of strong incremental drivers, and market sentiment remains cautious.

4. **Cost Side: Pressure on Raw Material Prices**

Fluctuations in upstream polyethylene raw materials and chemical inputs such as chlorine gas and sulfur dioxide directly impact CSM production costs. Recent volatility in the energy market (with crude oil prices fluctuating back and forth) has created transmission pressure on the chlor-alkali industry chain, but has not yet triggered drastic changes in CSM cost structures.

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## III. Global Market Background Reference

From a global perspective, the CSM market size reached approximately USD 17.831 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 27.162 billion by 2033, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4%. The Asia-Pacific region (particularly China and India) is the fastest-growing area, while North America holds a significant share due to its mature industrial system. However, these macro-level global positives have not effectively translated into domestic spot prices, indicating that the current domestic CSM market is more constrained by short-term supply-demand imbalances rather than long-term trend drivers.

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## IV. Analytical Judgment

**Core Judgment: Short-term horizontal consolidation, medium-term weak oscillation, long-term optimism for structural opportunities.**

1. **Prices have reached a phased bottom range.** The quote of 22,000 CNY/ton is nearly 30% lower than historical highs, leaving limited room for further significant declines, but also lacking sufficient momentum for a rebound.
2. **The dual-weak supply and demand landscape is unlikely to break in the short term.** Production operating rates have not shown significant improvements, and downstream willingness to conduct centralized procurement remains low. The market is in a stalemate characterized by \"prices exist but transactions are scarce.\"
3. **Industry reshuffling is accelerating.** Sustained low prices will eliminate high-cost capacity, and leading enterprises with scale and technological advantages (such as Jilin Petrochemical) will further consolidate their market share.

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## V. Forecast and Outlook

| Time Horizon | Forecast | Basis |
|--------------|----------|-------|
| **Next 1-2 weeks** | Prices are likely to remain in a narrow range around 22,000 CNY/ton | Consecutive stable quotes, no sudden positive or negative factors |
| **Next 1-3 months** | Possibility of a slight dip to 21,000-21,500 CNY/ton | Winter demand off-season combined with inventory pressure |
| **First half of 2027** | Prices expected to recover to 23,000-25,000 CNY/ton as infrastructure and new energy vehicles recover | Supported by the long-term growth logic of the global CSM market CAGR of 5.4% |

**Risk Warning:** If raw material prices for chlorine gas and polyethylene experience drastic fluctuations, or if policy stimulus for the automotive and construction industries exceeds expectations, the current horizontal consolidation pattern could be disrupted. Close monitoring is required.