Poly(acrylonitrile-co-butadiene)

Nitrile Rubber Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Recent Market Price Dynamics
- Price Trend: As of July 27, 2026, the Business Network’s benchmark price for nitrile rubber stood at RMB 16,725.00 per ton, up by RMB 675/ton (approximately 4.2%) from the benchmark price of RMB 16,050.00 per ton on July 20. The benchmark price was RMB 16,525.00 per ton on July 21 and RMB 16,700.00 per ton on July 22, reflecting a continuous upward trend.
- Price Spread: As of July 27, the Business Network’s average price spread for nitrile rubber further widened positively to RMB 371.25 per ton, indicating intensified market volatility and strengthening bullish sentiment.

II. Recent Key Market Developments
- Supply Side:
- Lanhua’s 15,000-ton-per-year nitrile rubber production facility is undergoing scheduled maintenance shutdown; other domestic nitrile rubber units are operating stably. Supplier inventories remain at low levels, tightening supply and providing price support.
- In the first half of 2026, effective global nitrile rubber supply contracted due to plant maintenance and Middle East geopolitical conflicts across major producing regions. Export volumes declined notably in Asia’s primary producing countries, while import volumes surged over 10% in key consuming markets including India and Southeast Asia.
- Cost Side:
- During the week of July 20–24, 2026, butadiene prices rose across Asian markets: FOB Korea increased to USD 1,280/ton (+USD 60/ton); CFR Taiwan rose to USD 1,300/ton (+USD 90/ton); CFR Southeast Asia reached USD 1,190/ton (+USD 90/ton); and CFR Mainland China climbed to USD 1,330/ton (+USD 30/ton). Rising butadiene prices strengthened cost-side support for nitrile rubber.
- Demand Side:
- Amid the seasonal low-demand period, downstream product manufacturers maintained relatively low operating rates, resulting in weak consumption and exerting moderate downward pressure on price increases.
- China’s tire exports increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, offering modest demand support for nitrile rubber; however, overall demand growth remained limited.
- Trade Dynamics:
- In the first half of 2026, China’s nitrile rubber imports totaled 42,300 tons, up 0.82% year-on-year; exports amounted to 12,700 tons, down 5.82% year-on-year. Exports to India declined sharply by 40.62% year-on-year, whereas exports to Southeast Asia rose across various destinations.
- On September 25, 2025, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on nitrile rubber originating from China, significantly constraining Chinese export momentum. Consequently, China’s nitrile rubber export volumes declined consecutively in October and November 2025.

III. Analysis and Assessment
- Short-Term Outlook:
- Tightened supply due to Lanhua’s maintenance shutdown, combined with rising butadiene costs, suggests continued pricing strength in the near term, with potential for further upside.
- Although demand remains seasonally subdued, growth in tire exports and gradual improvement in downstream operating rates will provide some price support and mitigate sharp downside corrections.
- Medium-Term Outlook:
- Upon completion of Lanhua’s maintenance, supply constraints will gradually ease, leading to stabilized market supply. Should demand fail to show meaningful improvement, upward pricing momentum will weaken, and the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase characterized by range-bound trading.
- Butadiene prices—subject to global supply dynamics and geopolitical risks—may retreat; such a decline would erode cost support for nitrile rubber and introduce downward price pressure.
- Long-Term Outlook:
- The nitrile rubber market in 2026 will continue to face the dual challenges of sluggish demand growth and persistent supply pressure. Coupled with expectations of lower raw material prices, the annual average price is anticipated to drift downward, with relatively narrow price volatility and no pronounced unilateral trend.
- Broader macroeconomic recovery, evolving trade policies, and developments in the new-energy vehicle industry will profoundly influence nitrile rubber demand; close monitoring of these factors is essential.

IV. Forecast
- Price Forecast:
- Short Term (1–2 months): Nitrile rubber prices are expected to remain strong, fluctuating within a range of RMB 16,500–17,000 per ton.
- Medium Term (3–6 months): With easing supply constraints and muted demand response, prices will likely consolidate in a range of RMB 16,000–16,500 per ton.
- Long Term (1 year and beyond): Influenced by global economic recovery, trade policy shifts, and NEV industry development, prices are projected to trend downward with limited downside room; the annual average price is forecast to settle between RMB 15,500–16,000 per ton.
- Market Trend Forecast:
- Supply Side: Gradual supply expansion is expected as newly commissioned facilities come online and existing maintenance cycles conclude, sustaining ongoing supply pressure.
- Demand Side: Rapid development of the new-energy vehicle sector will drive incremental nitrile rubber demand; however, growth in traditional sectors remains limited, resulting in overall modest demand expansion.
- Trade Side: Escalating global protectionism and geopolitical uncertainties will reshape nitrile rubber trade patterns, placing continued pressure on China’s export markets.