Epichlorohydrin rubber

# Chlorinated Rubber Market Intelligence (Mid-October to Mid-November 2026)

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## I. Price Trends

| Time Point | Quote Information | Price (CNY/ton) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Wuhan Organic Xinrong Chemical (Xinkang brand, copolymer type, 25kg/bag, ex-factory price) | 38,000 | — |
| 2026-11-05 | Same as above | 38,000 | Unchanged |
| 2026-11-06 | Same as above | 38,000 | Unchanged |
| 2026-11-09 | Same as above | 38,000 | Unchanged |
| 2026-11-11 | Same as above | 38,000 | Unchanged |

**Core Judgment: The mainstream ex-factory price of chlorinated rubber has remained fixed at 38,000 CNY/ton over the past month, exhibiting a typical sideways consolidation pattern.**

SunSirs released commodity price dynamics for chlorinated rubber on November 6 and November 9, respectively. However, they only disclosed the benchmark price model (Settlement Price = Benchmark Price × K + C) without providing specific fluctuation values, indicating a lack of directional drivers in the short term and a pronounced price anchoring effect.

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## II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals

**2.1 Supply Side**
- Major domestic producer Wuhan Organic Xinrong Chemical Co., Ltd. continues to supply stably. The price has not been adjusted for seven consecutive days, reflecting that upstream raw material costs and production rhythms have stabilized.
- The industry faces increasing pressure from stricter environmental regulations. Chlorinated rubber production involves hydrogen chloride emissions and wastewater treatment. Producers are committed to optimizing processes, exploring closed-loop recycling systems, and substituting with low-toxicity, low-harm raw materials, which limits supply elasticity in the short term.

**2.2 Demand Side**
- Relying on its excellent oil, heat, and aging resistance, chlorinated rubber maintains rigid demand in **automotive, petroleum, defense, and aerospace** sectors.
- The global chlorinated rubber market size reached 2.871 billion RMB in 2025, with the Chinese market at 804 million RMB. By 2032, the global market is projected to expand to 4.603 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.98%. The Asia-Pacific region remains the core consumption hub.

**2.3 Competitive Landscape**
- Key global players include **Zeon (Japan), Daiso (Japan), Hubei Chengfeng Chemical, and Hebei Lixing Specialty Rubber**. The domestic market is represented by the Wuhan, Hubei industrial cluster, where imported materials (from Zeon, Osaka Soda, etc.) and domestic products coexist in competition.

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## III. Analysis and Judgment

**3.1 Short-term (1–3 months): Sideways consolidation with a ceiling and a floor**
- The 38,000 CNY/ton quote has remained unchanged for several days, indicating that buyers and sellers have reached a temporary equilibrium at the current price level, lacking catalysts to break the stalemate.
- Rising environmental compliance costs provide bottom support for prices, while the absence of explosive growth in downstream tire and automotive industry demand (referencing concurrent natural rubber market data: US tire imports dropped 4% year-on-year in the first 8 months of 2026, and EV sales plummeted 30.7% year-on-year) suppresses upward price potential.

**3.2 Medium-term (3–12 months): Moderate upside potential**
- The global market's 6.98% CAGR suggests steady demand growth.
- Green manufacturing and sustainability trends are driving technological upgrades in the industry. High-value-added modified products (such as eco-friendly ECO chlorinated rubber) are expected to open new profit margins.
- Breakthroughs in waste rubber recycling technology may bring structural optimization to raw material costs.

**3.3 Risk Warnings**
- **Tightened environmental policies** may short-term increase production costs. If companies fail to complete process upgrades in time, they face capacity elimination risks.
- **Price fluctuations in alternative materials like natural rubber** (currently at a 1-year high, around 19,000–20,000 CNY/ton) may squeeze the cost-performance advantage of chlorinated rubber.
- International trade friction and geopolitical factors remain significant external variables.

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## IV. Forecast Conclusion

| Dimension | Judgment |
|---|---|
| **Price Trend** | Short-term: Narrow range fluctuation around 38,000 CNY/ton; Medium-term: Moderate upward movement to the 39,000–41,000 CNY/ton range as demand recovers and costs are passed through |
| **Market Sentiment** | Predominantly wait-and-see, with low trading activity, awaiting clear signals from policy and the demand side |
| **Operational Advice** | Rigid demand buyers can lock in prices as needed; speculative positions should be cautious, monitoring the pace of environmental policy implementation and order data from downstream automotive/petroleum industries |

**One-line Summary: The current chlorinated rubber market is like a still pool of water—calm on the surface, but with undercurrents flowing beneath. The dual forces of environmental upgrades and demand expansion are accumulating momentum for the next market cycle.**