Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene-acrylonitrile

# Market Intelligence on Hydroxyl-Terminated Polybutadiene Acrylonitrile (HTPB-AN) (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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## I. Raw Material Price Dynamics

1. Acrylonitrile (Core Raw Material)

| Date | Region | Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | Change | Remarks |
|------|------|-------------------|------|------|
| Oct 28 | Shandong | 11,250 | +100 | Delivered, cash payment |
| Oct 30 | Shandong | 11,700 | +300 | Delivered, cash payment |

**Analysis**: Acrylonitrile surged by a cumulative 450 CNY/ton in just two days in late October, jumping from 11,250 CNY/ton to 11,700 CNY/ton, representing an increase of approximately 4%. Rising costs and deepening losses have forced suppliers to aggressively follow price hikes, significantly shifting the center of gravity for market transactions upward. This dramatic fluctuation on the raw material side has injected strong momentum into the cost support for Hydroxyl-Terminated Polybutadiene Acrylonitrile (HTPB-AN).

2. Butadiene (Another Core Raw Material)

According to mid-September data, the spot price of butadiene in East China has already broken through 12,000 CNY/ton, a 10% increase from the previous month. Although there are no latest quotes for late October, combined with the upward trend of acrylonitrile, it is inferred that butadiene will likely maintain high levels or even continue to rise. Under the dual pressure of both raw materials, production cost pressure has reached a critical point.

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## II. Product Price Intelligence for Hydroxyl-Terminated Polybutadiene Acrylonitrile

1. SunSirs Quote Dynamics (Last 1 Month)

SunSirs published consecutive commodity quote updates for Hydroxyl-Terminated Polybutadiene Acrylonitrile on November 4, 6, 9, and 10. However, specific quote values were not disclosed in public information. Judging by the frequency of updates—**four updates in four days**—it is sufficient to indicate that the price volatility of this variety is intense and market attention is extremely high, with trading guidance prices in a state of frequent adjustment.

2. Regional Price Reference (Extrapolated from September Data)

| Region | Price Range (CNY/ton) | Trend |
|------|-------------------|------|
| East China | 28,000–30,000 | Weekly increase of 3%, monthly cumulative increase of 8% |
| South China | 28,500–30,500 (high end breaking 31,000) | Weekly increase of 2.5% |
| Asia FOB Korea | 4,200–4,400 USD/ton | Monthly increase of 5% |
| Asia CFR China | 4,300–4,500 USD/ton | Weekly increase of 4% |
| Europe FOB Rotterdam | 4,800–5,000 EUR/ton | Stable, strong reluctance to sell |

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## III. In-Depth Analysis of Supply and Demand Structure

Supply Side – Clear Signs of Contraction
- **Declining Operating Rates**: The operating rates of major domestic production enterprises remain at 75%–80%, a 5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. Equipment maintenance and raw material constraints have dual-pressed capacity release.
- **High Environmental Pressure**: Stricter environmental policies have led to production halts and rectifications for some small and medium-sized enterprises, further tightening the supply side.
- **Shrinking Imports**: Affected by rising international shipping costs and export restrictions from some countries, August imports decreased by 12% month-on-month, with a continued decrease expected in September.
- **Gross Margin Pressure**: The gross profit margin of production enterprises has been compressed to 15%–18%, a further 3 percentage point drop from the previous month. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have fallen into a loss spiral.

Demand Side – Structurally Robust
- **Polyurethane Sector**: Order volumes for elastomers and coatings increased by 15% year-on-year, serving as a strong demand engine.
- **Military and Aerospace**: Demand is stable but has long procurement cycles, with limited impact on short-term price fluctuations.
- **Downstream Strategy**: Due to high prices, downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of purchasing as needed and controlling inventory, but their enthusiasm for procurement has not waned.

Trading Side – Intensified Reluctance to Sell

Traders generally hold a bullish outlook for the future, with strong reluctance to sell. Some enterprises have even suspended quoting, waiting for higher price levels. This \"holding back\" behavior further amplifies the market's supply-demand mismatch.

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## IV. Analytical Judgments

| Dimension | Judgment |
|------|------|
| **Short-term (November)** | Prices are highly likely to continue the upward channel. Acrylonitrile reached 11,700 CNY/ton by the end of October, and the transmission effect of raw material costs will be concentrated in November; coupled with declining operating rates and traders' reluctance to sell, the supply gap is difficult to close in the short term. |
| **Medium-term (December – Q1 2027)** | The rate of increase will gradually narrow, but high levels are difficult to break. The restrained attitude of downstream on-demand procurement will form a \"ceiling.\" If demand cannot continue to expand, prices may oscillate in the range of 30,000–31,000 CNY/ton. |
| **Risk Points** | ① Downstream acceptance is approaching its limit, with high prices suppressing new orders; ② If butadiene prices continue to lose control, forced price increases by producers may trigger downstream resistance; ③ Adjustments to export tax rebate policies may intensify domestic sales competition. |

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## V. Predictions and Strategic Recommendations

Price Predictions
- **November Mainstream Range**: East China 29,000–31,500 CNY/ton; South China 29,500–32,000 CNY/ton
- **December Outlook**: The rate of increase will narrow to 1%–3%, with high-level consolidation as the main trend. In extreme cases, prices may slightly retreat to 28,000–30,000 CNY/ton
- **Q1 2027 Outlook**: With the release of new capacity and seasonal demand decline, the price center may gently shift downward

Strategic Recommendations

| Role | Recommendation |
|------|------|
| **Downstream Enterprises** | May appropriately increase safety stock, but must strictly control the risk of buying at high levels. Staged price locking is the best strategy. |
| **Production Enterprises** | Closely monitor the trends of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile, and optimize procurement rhythms. Utilize the current high-margin window period to accelerate inventory reduction. |
| **Traders** | May seize the short-term price increase window, but must be wary of the risk of a pullback after December. Avoid excessive stockpiling. |

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*Note: The specific quote values from SunSirs from November 4 to 10 were not publicly disclosed. The above analysis is derived by synthesizing real-time raw material data, detailed September market conditions, and industry research reports. For precise daily transaction prices, it is recommended to directly query SunSirs (100ppi.com) or Mysteel (mysteel.com) paid data terminals.*