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China, the United States, and Germany are the leading exporters of Polybutadiene, collectively accounting for over 45% of global exports in 2023–2024, while China, South Korea, and Turkey represent the largest importers by volume and value. Import demand has remained relatively stable across major Asian and European markets, though recent fluctuations in Polybutadiene prices have coincided with tighter supply from key Russian and Eastern European producers amid ongoing trade realignments.
Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Butadiene Rubber (BR)
I. Recent Market Dynamics
1. Price Trends
- As of July 7, 2026, the Business Network’s benchmark price for butadiene rubber stood at RMB 12,490.00 per metric ton.
- On July 6, the reference price was RMB 12,490.00/ton, representing a 0.16% increase compared to RMB 12,470.00/ton on July 1.
- On July 3, the reference price was RMB 12,420.00/ton, down 0.4% from RMB 12,470.00/ton on July 1.
- On July 2, the reference price was RMB 12,320.00/ton, down 1.2% from RMB 12,470.00/ton on July 1.
- On July 1, the reference price was RMB 12,470.00/ton, down 16.59% from RMB 14,950.00/ton on June 1.
- On June 30, the reference price was RMB 12,480.00/ton, down 16.52% from RMB 14,950.00/ton on June 1.
- On June 29, the reference price was RMB 12,480.00/ton, down 16.52% from RMB 14,950.00/ton on June 1.
2. Enterprise Price Adjustments
- On July 6, 2026, Sinopec increased its ex-factory price for butadiene rubber.
3. Plant Operations
- On June 29, 2026, Yanshan Petrochemical’s high-cis butadiene rubber unit underwent scheduled maintenance shutdown; Zhenhua New Materials’ butadiene rubber unit resumed operations.
4. Import/Export Data
- In May 2026, China’s butadiene rubber exports totaled 40,524.61 metric tons, while imports amounted to 14,380.38 metric tons.
II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Reasons for Price Volatility
- Supply Side: Alternating plant maintenance and restarts—such as Yanshan Petrochemical’s shutdown and Zhenhua New Materials’ restart—impact overall supply volume, thereby causing price fluctuations. Supply reductions due to maintenance may provide price support, whereas increased supply following restarts may exert downward pressure on prices.
- Cost Side: Fluctuations in raw material prices affect production costs for butadiene rubber, which are subsequently passed through to market prices. Although recent raw material price movements were not explicitly cited, raw material costs remain a key factor influencing BR pricing.
- Policy/Enterprise Side: Sinopec’s ex-factory price hike reflects manufacturers’ assessment of supply-demand dynamics and cost considerations. Such adjustments typically drive upward price momentum in the broader market and may prompt follow-on price increases by other producers.
2. Supply-Demand Balance
- Recent price trends show an initial decline followed by a modest rebound. The sharp price drop in June likely resulted from relatively ample supply coupled with demand growth falling short of expectations—leading to oversupply and downward price pressure. The slight July uptick may reflect the combined effects of enterprise price adjustments and temporary supply constraints arising from plant maintenance, indicating some improvement in supply-demand equilibrium.
III. Outlook
1. Short-Term Forecast (1–2 Weeks)
- Price Outlook: Prices are expected to remain subject to minor fluctuations. Should maintenance-related supply constraints persist and the impact of enterprise price hikes continue, prices may maintain an upward trajectory—albeit with limited gains. Conversely, if supply recovers rapidly while demand fails to pick up meaningfully, prices could retreat once again.
- Supply-Demand Outlook: On the supply side, plant maintenance status remains pivotal; timely restarts of idled units will increase market availability. On the demand side, downstream industry activity—including operating rates and order volumes—will significantly influence BR demand; close monitoring is therefore warranted.
2. Medium-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
- Price Outlook: Price direction will hinge on the evolving supply-demand balance. Sustained growth in end-user sectors—particularly new-energy vehicles (NEVs)—could bolster demand for butadiene rubber. If supply expansion proceeds at a comparatively slower pace, prices may gradually recover. Conversely, should supply surge while demand growth remains sluggish, prices may linger at low levels.
- Supply-Demand Outlook: On the supply side, incremental capacity from newly commissioned plants is expected to further increase market supply. On the demand side, continued development of NEVs, smart devices, and related industries presents new growth opportunities for butadiene rubber. However, the pace and scale of such demand growth remain uncertain.
Polybutadiene is a synthetic rubber appearing as a translucent to opaque, viscous, amber-to-brown elastomeric solid or gum at room temperature; it is non-volatile, odorless to faintly rubbery, and exhibits no sharp melting point but softens progressively above ~40 °C. It is a high-molecular-weight polymer classified as a conjugated diene elastomer, synthesized primarily via anionic or coordination polymerization of 1,3-butadiene. As a key raw material in the rubber industry, polybutadiene is widely blended with natural rubber and styrene–butadiene rubber (SBR) to enhance abrasion resistance, resilience, and low-temperature flexibility. Its principal applications are in tire treads and sidewalls, mechanical rubber goods (e.g., conveyor belts, hoses), and impact-modified plastics such as high-impact polystyrene (HIPS) and acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene (ABS) resins.
Component of water soluble binders and electrical encapsulants.
low molecular weight formulations are liquid, Polybutadiene is a homopolymer of butadiene. The catalysts involved in the polymerization process determine the structure and molecular weight of the rubber. It is used in tires and for other products that require abrasion resistance. At times both SBR and polybutadiene are extended with oils. There are underlying hazards associated with the individual oils, some of which are carcinogenic in animals and suspected human carcinogens.
This chemical is included in Rubber. See more about what is Polybutadiene and Polybutadiene SDS information.
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