1,3-Butadiene, homopolymer, carboxy-terminated

Market Intelligence on End-Carboxylated Polybutadiene Liquid Rubber

I. Market Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: The mainstream transaction price is in the range of 38,000-42,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 2.5% compared to the previous week. Prices for some high-end grades have exceeded 45,000 RMB/ton.
- South China: The price range is 37,500-41,000 RMB/ton. Affected by regional supply tightness, local transaction prices have risen slightly.
- North China: Prices are stable in the range of 37,000-40,000 RMB/ton. The market is dominated by downstream rigid demand, with average trading activity.

2. International Market:
- Southeast Asia: The FOB price is approximately 5,200-5,600 USD/ton. Influenced by crude oil price fluctuations and regional demand growth, prices have increased by 3% month-on-month.
- Europe and the United States: The CFR price is stable at 6,000-6,500 USD/ton. Sustained strong demand in high-end application areas supports prices at high levels.

II. Supply and Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Production Capacity: The operating rate of major production enterprises is maintained at 85%-90%. Short-term supply has decreased due to equipment maintenance at some companies.
- Import Volume: Imports from January to February increased by 12% year-on-year, primarily from Southeast Asia. However, recent increases in logistics costs have led to higher landed import prices.
- New Production Capacity: A leading enterprise plans to commission a new 50,000-ton/year facility in the second half of the year, which may alleviate long-term supply pressure.

2. Demand Side:
- Downstream Industries:
- Coatings Industry: Accounts for approximately 45% of demand, showing stable growth. High-end eco-friendly coatings have increased demand for end-carboxylated polybutadiene.
- Adhesives Industry: Accounts for approximately 30% of demand. Driven by the new energy vehicle and electronic packaging sectors, demand has increased by 15% year-on-year.
- Other Sectors: Demand from composite materials, sealants, and other areas accounts for approximately 25%, maintaining steady growth.
- Regional Demand: East and South China account for over 70% of demand. Influenced by the manufacturing recovery, short-term demand resilience is relatively strong.

III. Cost and Profit Analysis
1. Raw Material Costs:
- Butadiene Price: Recently maintained at 10,000-11,000 RMB/ton, representing a 5% month-on-month increase, providing significant cost support for end-carboxylated polybutadiene.
- Catalysts and Additives: Prices have shown minimal fluctuation, with limited impact on total costs.

2. Production Profits:
- Industry Average Gross Margin: Approximately 15%-18%, down 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, mainly due to rising raw material costs.
- Leading Enterprises: Through large-scale production and technical optimization, the gross margin remains above 20%.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Trends
1. Policy Impact:
- Stricter environmental policies are driving the downstream coatings and adhesives industries to transition to low-VOCs products, benefiting the demand for end-carboxylated polybutadiene.
- Adjustments to export tax rebate policies have increased export costs for some enterprises, potentially affecting international market competitiveness in the short term.

2. Industry Trends:
- A certain enterprise has successfully developed high-solids end-carboxylated polybutadiene products for high-end composite material applications, receiving positive market feedback.
- The industry association has organized a technical seminar to discuss solutions for reducing production costs and enhancing product performance.

V. Analysis and Forecast
1. Short-term (1-3 months):
- Price Trends: Influenced by raw material cost support and regional supply tightness, prices may remain in a high-level oscillation, with an expected fluctuation range of 37,000-43,000 RMB/ton.
- Supply and Demand: Short-term significant supply increases are unlikely, while demand remains steadily growing. The overall market supply and demand will remain in a tight balance.

2. Medium-term (3-6 months):
- Price Trends: As new production capacity is gradually released and import volumes increase, prices may face downward pressure, though the decline is expected to be limited, with prices likely maintained at 35,000-40,000 RMB/ton.
- Supply and Demand: Supply-side pressure will ease, and demand will be influenced by seasonal factors. The overall supply and demand relationship will tend to become looser.

3. Long-term (6-12 months):
- Price Trends: Influenced by raw material costs and the upgrading of downstream demand structures, prices may exhibit a trend of first declining and then rising, with a potential recovery to 38,000-42,000 RMB/ton by the end of the year.
- Supply and Demand: With the full release of new production capacity, supply-side competition will intensify. Continuous growth in demand for high-end application areas will support the price floor.

VI. Risk Warnings
1. Risk of significant fluctuations in raw material prices.
2. Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations.
3. Risk of changes in international trade policies.
4. Risk of new production capacity being deployed faster than expected.