1,2-Pentanediol

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The price of 1,2-pentanediol has recently shown a slight upward fluctuation. In the East China region, the mainstream quotation is between 22,000 and 23,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 300–500 RMB/ton compared to the previous week; in the South China region, the price ranges from 22,500 to 23,500 RMB/ton, with an increase of 200–400 RMB/ton.
- International Market: In Asia, the FOB Korea price stands at 3,000–3,100 USD/ton, showing a slight rise; in the European market, the FOB Rotterdam price is between 3,200 and 3,300 USD/ton, remaining relatively stable with a slight upward trend.
2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic production enterprises maintain a generally stable operating rate. Although some companies temporarily halted production due to equipment maintenance, the overall impact on output is limited. However, due to the depletion of previous inventory, spot market supply has become slightly tight.
- Regarding imports, the import volume has decreased due to rising international logistics costs and adjustments in export policies of certain countries, further exacerbating the tight supply situation in the domestic market.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream industry demand has increased. In the cosmetics sector, driven by growing consumer demand for natural and gentle skincare products, the application ratio of 1,2-pentanediol as a humectant and preservative booster in cosmetic formulations has risen, thereby boosting demand.
- In industries such as coatings and inks, where 1,2-pentanediol is used as a solvent and additive, demand has also improved alongside the recovery of these sectors.
4. **Cost Factors**
- The price of the main raw material, 1-pentene, has remained relatively stable recently. However, upstream raw materials such as propylene have seen price increases, providing support for the production cost of 1,2-pentanediol.
- On the energy cost front, high levels of coal and natural gas prices have increased enterprise production costs, prompting some companies to raise prices to offset cost pressures.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Reasons for Price Increase**: On the supply side, although domestic operating rates are stable, inventory depletion and reduced imports have led to tight spot market supply. On the demand side, growing demand from downstream industries such as cosmetics and coatings has driven prices up. Additionally, rising costs have provided further support for price increases.
2. **Market Supply-Demand Relationship**: The market is currently in a state of excess demand over supply. The tight supply situation is unlikely to be effectively alleviated in the short term, while the sustained growth in demand is expected to further push prices upward.
3. **Impact of Costs**: The rise in raw material and energy costs has significantly affected the production cost of 1,2-pentanediol. To maintain profit margins, enterprises are highly likely to continue raising prices to cope with cost pressures.

Forecast
1. **Price Trend**: It is expected that over the next week, the price of 1,2-pentanediol will continue to rise, with domestic market prices likely breaking through the 23,000–24,000 RMB/ton range. International prices will also follow the domestic trend upward, with the FOB Korea price potentially reaching 3,100–3,200 USD/ton.
2. **Supply Situation**: Domestic enterprise operating rates are expected to remain stable. However, as demand continues to grow, the tight supply situation may intensify. Regarding imports, if international logistics issues and export policy constraints are not resolved, import volumes are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.
3. **Demand Situation**: Demand from downstream industries such as cosmetics and coatings will continue to grow. Particularly in the cosmetics sector, driven by consumption upgrades, the demand for 1,2-pentanediol is expected to remain strong, providing solid support for the market.