Ammonium nitrate

Nitric Acid Ammonium Market Dynamics Intelligence

I. Price Trends
- Recent Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the reference price for ammonium nitrate stood at RMB 4,330.00 per ton, unchanged from July 1 and July 2. On June 30, the reference price was RMB 4,340.00 per ton—unchanged from June 1—but declined by 0.23% compared to the RMB 4,340.00 per ton recorded on July 1.
- Historical Prices: From end-June 2025 to June 2026, ammonium nitrate prices exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. For example, at end-June 2025, powdered ammonium nitrate was priced at RMB 2,264 per ton, down 12.91% year-on-year; porous granular ammonium nitrate was priced at RMB 2,396 per ton, down 9.81% year-on-year; and liquid ammonium nitrate was priced at RMB 2,109 per ton, down 13.90% year-on-year.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply:
- Domestic Capacity: China’s ammonium nitrate industry capacity has entered a contraction phase, declining to 9.71 million tons by 2024—down 1.13 million tons net from 2021. However, capacity utilization has steadily increased—from 55.42% in 2020 to 66.02% in 2024—gradually alleviating overcapacity issues.
- Production: China’s ammonium nitrate output has grown at a low but steady pace, rising from 5.935 million tons in 2020 to 6.411 million tons in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.95%.
- Imports: In 2025, China did not rely on imports to supplement domestic ammonium nitrate supply, as domestic production capacity fully met market demand. Historically, minor imports served mainly to supplement high-end product varieties, leverage favorable pricing, or balance regional supply-demand imbalances.
- Demand:
- Industrial Explosives: Industrial explosives constitute the largest downstream market for ammonium nitrate in China, accounting for approximately 44% of its production cost. In recent years, industrial explosive output has remained consistently high, ranging between 4.35 million and 4.55 million tons annually—providing sustained and robust demand support for ammonium nitrate.
- Agricultural Fertilizers: As a key fertilizer raw material, ammonium nitrate demand is closely tied to agricultural development and food security. With global population growth and increasing pressure on arable land resources, demand for efficient and environmentally friendly agricultural inputs continues to rise—offering broad market potential for the ammonium nitrate industry.

III. Market Developments
- Export Recovery: China’s ammonium nitrate exports followed a 'decline-then-recovery' trajectory. From 2020 to 2022, export volumes sharply contracted—from 101,600 tons to 27,900 tons. Subsequently, export demand gradually recovered: in 2024, exports rebounded to 41,700 tons, up 11.8% year-on-year; from January to August 2025, cumulative exports reached 38,500 tons—up 43.12% year-on-year compared to 26,900 tons during the same period in 2024.
- Price Volatility: China’s ammonium nitrate export average price moved inversely to export volume. From 2020 to 2023, the export average price rose continuously—from RMB 2,059.52 per ton to RMB 3,849.84 per ton. After 2023, it entered a downward trend; from January to August 2025, the average export price fell to RMB 2,358.89 per ton—down 22.09% year-on-year versus RMB 3,027.65 per ton in the same period of 2024.

Analysis & Assessment

I. Price Trend
- Ammonium nitrate prices have remained stable recently; however, longer-term, they may continue exhibiting a fluctuating downward trend due to influences including supply-demand dynamics and raw material price volatility.

II. Supply-Demand Relationship
- Domestic ammonium nitrate capacity continues optimizing, with rising capacity utilization and gradual relief of overcapacity. Meanwhile, domestic output grows steadily at a low rate, strengthening self-sufficiency and eliminating import dependency.
- Industrial explosives and agricultural fertilizers—the two primary downstream markets—show stable and growing demand, providing solid support to the ammonium nitrate market.

III. Export Market
- China’s ammonium nitrate export market is recovering, with notable export volume growth. However, due to inherent characteristics of ammonium nitrate, export destinations remain highly concentrated in Asia. Moreover, the declining export average price may adversely affect export-oriented enterprises’ profitability.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- In the short term, ammonium nitrate prices are likely to remain stable or experience only minor fluctuations. Longer-term, prices may continue declining under the influence of supply-demand fundamentals and raw material price volatility.

II. Supply-Demand Forecast
- Domestic ammonium nitrate capacity will continue optimizing, with further increases in capacity utilization and low-speed output growth. Concurrently, demand from industrial explosives and agricultural fertilizers is expected to remain stable and grow moderately, sustaining overall market demand.

III. Export Forecast
- China’s ammonium nitrate export market will continue recovering, with export volumes likely to sustain growth. However, the average export price may continue declining; thus, export enterprises should prioritize cost control and profitability enhancement.