Acetone

Acetone Market Dynamics Intelligence (July 29, 2026)

I. Core Price Data
1. Benchmark Price
- China Commerce Network (Shengyishe) Acetone Benchmark Price: RMB 7,337.50/ton on July 29, up by 18.35% from RMB 6,200.00/ton on July 24 and up by 30.74% from RMB 5,612.50/ton on July 15.
- Regional Market Prices:
- East China Market: RMB 5,950/ton (quoted on July 28);
- South China Market: RMB 6,500/ton (quoted on July 28);
- North China Market (Fangshan, Beijing): RMB 6,400/ton (quoted on July 28).

2. Price Volatility Range
- Over the past week (July 22–29): benchmark price declined from RMB 7,747.50/ton to RMB 7,337.50/ton, a decrease of 5.29%;
- Over the past month (June 29–July 29): benchmark price rose from RMB 4,800.00/ton to RMB 7,337.50/ton, an increase of 52.86%.

II. Market Driver Analysis
1. Supply-Side Factors
- Concentrated Plant Maintenance: Domestic phenol-acetone plant operating rates dropped to 65–66% in July (as of July 12), down by over 5 percentage points from June. Key maintenance units include:
- Changchun Chemical (Jiangsu) 480,000-ton/year facility (June 20 – July 31);
- Shenghong Refining & Chemical 250,000-ton/year facility (June 28 – August 15);
- Wanhua Chemical 310,000-ton/year facility (planned maintenance from late July to early September).
- Low Port Inventory: Jiangyin port inventory fell to 8,000 tons on July 24, down by 6,500 tons from July 17; traders’ pricing resilience remains strong.

2. Cost-Driven Factors
- Upstream Benzene Prices: Strong rebound observed—weekly increase of 8.12% to RMB 7,320/ton as of July 12, providing significant cost support.

3. Demand-Side Factors
- Downstream Restocking Demand: Despite depressed margins in downstream sectors (e.g., BPA at -RMB 1,538/ton), sharp price declines in June triggered concentrated “bottom-fishing” purchases by end-users, driving short-term demand;
- Stable Isopropanol Demand: Isopropanol producers maintain marginal profitability, sustaining steady acetone demand.

4. Import/Export Dynamics
- June 2026 imports totaled 17,000 tons, down 9.98% year-on-year; cumulative imports for January–June reached 199,800 tons, down 8.42% YoY;
- Exports amounted to 1,500 tons in June, down 101.98% YoY—indicating heightened domestic supply reliance.

III. Market Contradictions and Risk Factors
1. Core Contradictions
- Supply Contraction vs. Weak Demand: Maintenance activities reduced monthly external supply by ~27,000 tons, yet downstream BPA and MMA plant operating rates remain low, with limited substantive improvement in end-user demand.
- Port Inventory Rebound Risk: Approximately 6,200 tons of imported acetone arrived at ports in July; additional cargo en route totals ~11,000 tons. Should inventory exceed 25,000 tons, pricing pressure will intensify.

2. External Risks
- Geopolitical Tensions: International crude oil prices surged >3% on July 13 due to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz; prolonged conflict may further elevate cost-driven acetone pricing;
- Policy Shifts: The U.S. finalized Section 301 tariff list and related hearing outcomes announced on July 24 may reshape import/export dynamics.

IV. Price Outlook and Strategic Recommendations
1. Short-Term Forecast (1–2 weeks)
- Price Range: Benchmark price likely to stabilize between RMB 7,000–7,500/ton, influenced by port inventory levels and downstream operating rates.
- Driving Logic: Ongoing plant maintenance and robust cost support offset relatively weak demand-side stabilization—resulting in a resilient, sideways-to-upward price trend.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast (1–3 months)
- Downside Risk: If Wanhua Chemical and other facilities resume operations as scheduled in August—and port inventories rise—prices could retreat to RMB 6,500–7,000/ton;
- Upside Catalyst: Sustained increases in international oil prices or recovery in BPA profitability could push prices above RMB 7,500/ton.

3. Strategic Recommendations
- Upstream Producers: Sell opportunistically at elevated prices to lock in profits;
- Downstream Consumers: Procure based on actual demand; avoid speculative inventory accumulation;
- Traders: Closely monitor port inventory developments and plant restart schedules to dynamically adjust inventory positions.