Acetone

Acetone Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis & Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Recent Price: As of July 7, 2026, the Business Network’s benchmark acetone price stood at RMB 4,712.50 per ton—down 4.07% from the beginning-of-month level (RMB 4,912.50/ton), yet up RMB 200/ton (a 4.43% increase) from July 6.
- Recent Volatility: Over the past week, acetone prices declined cumulatively by RMB 300/ton (a 5.99% drop); over the past month, they fell by RMB 1,937.50/ton (a 29.14% decline).
- Historical Comparison: The current price is at a yearly low. The annual minimum was RMB 4,047.50/ton; the maximum, RMB 8,350.00/ton; and the median, RMB 6,198.75/ton.

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Domestic acetone vertical integration rate rose to 71% in 2025, enhancing resilience among integrated producers; however, industry-wide profitability has declined.
- A wave of imported cargoes en route is scheduled to arrive at Chinese ports by end-2025, potentially pushing port inventories to 28,000–30,000 tons, intensifying supply surplus pressure.
- Demand Side:
- Key downstream sectors—including bisphenol-A (BPA) and methyl methacrylate (MMA)—are struggling to achieve meaningful utilization-rate improvements; solvent-focused industries are procuring on a just-in-time basis, lacking incremental demand support.
- China’s apparent acetone consumption in 2025 reached ~3.569 million tons, up 9.12% year-on-year—but demand growth has notably decelerated versus prior years.

3. Regional Markets
- East China Region: Quoted at RMB 4,712.50/ton on July 7—the epicenter of recent price fluctuations.
- Shandong Region: On July 1, Fuyu Petrochemical (Shandong) reduced its acetone price by RMB 100/ton to RMB 5,000/ton; its 250,000-ton/year phenol-acetone plant operates normally.
- North China Region: On July 1, Sinopec North China lowered its posted acetone price by RMB 200/ton to RMB 4,900/ton (cash payment, ex-works pickup).

4. Corporate Updates
- Yangzhou Shiyu Chemical: Its 320,000-ton/year phenol-acetone plant operates normally; acetone price effective July 1 was RMB 5,100/ton, with relatively low inventory.
- Jiangsu Ruiheng Chemical: Its 650,000-ton/year phenol-acetone plant runs at 80% capacity, primarily for internal consumption; acetone price effective July 1 was RMB 5,100/ton.

II. Analysis & Judgment
1. Short-Term Volatility Drivers
- Price Rebound: The 4.43% price increase on July 7 was driven primarily by traders’ reluctance to sell (“seller hesitation”) and restocking demand at low price levels—yet lacks sustainable underlying demand support.
- Supply Pressure: Rising port inventories and higher domestic plant operating rates mean the near-term supply-overhang remains entrenched.
- Cost Support: Feedstocks—pure benzene and propylene—trade in narrow ranges, offering insufficient cost-based price support.

2. Long-Term Trends
- Industry Structure: Integrated producers are expanding market share; non-integrated players, facing losses, are cutting output passively—further consolidating industry concentration.
- Demand Growth: Core downstream sectors (e.g., BPA, MMA) exhibit slowing demand growth; emerging applications (e.g., lithium-ion battery separators, semiconductors) have yet to scale meaningfully.
- Profitability Pressure: Industry gross margin declined by 179.38% year-on-year in 2025; enterprises must strengthen cost control and inventory management to navigate profitability challenges.

III. Future Outlook
1. Price Range Forecast
- Short Term (1–3 months): East China spot prices are projected to oscillate within RMB 4,050–4,750/ton—upside capped by weak demand, while downside is limited by seller hesitation at low price levels.
- Long Term (1–3 years): With structural optimization and gradual supply-demand rebalancing, the price center is expected to gradually rise to RMB 6,500–7,000/ton (projected for 2027–2031).

2. Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply Side: Domestic capacity continues expanding; import volumes may fluctuate following the termination of anti-dumping duties—persistent supply surplus may become the norm.
- Demand Side: Core-sector demand remains stably growing; high-end product demand (e.g., electronic-grade acetone) is gaining share; emerging application demand is gradually materializing.

3. Industry Opportunities
- Premiumization Strategy: Enterprises should prioritize high-value derivatives (e.g., optical-grade polycarbonate, electronic-grade acetone) and bio-based materials to enhance profitability.
- Vertical Integration: Upstream-downstream integration can reduce logistics costs and bolster risk resilience.
- Policy Tailwinds: National policy support for high-end chemical new materials and import substitution presents strategic development opportunities.