Polyethylene, Oxidized

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. Supply Side
- The operating rate of domestic POE producers remains stable. Some enterprises are conducting routine maintenance as planned, leading to a slight decrease in overall output.
- Regarding imports, due to the shutdown and maintenance of certain overseas facilities, import arrivals have decreased, and port inventories are at low levels.

2. Demand Side
- Demand in the photovoltaic (PV) sector remains robust. With increased production scheduling of PV modules, demand for POE films has surged significantly, becoming the primary driver for POE demand growth.
- Demand in the automotive sector remains stable. Under the trend of vehicle lightweighting, the application of POE in automotive components is growing steadily, albeit at a relatively slower pace.
- Demand in traditional sectors such as footwear materials, wire and cable remains largely unchanged, with purchases driven by rigid demand.

3. Pricing
- Domestic POE market prices have shown an overall upward trend, with price increases ranging from 500 to 1,000 RMB/ton depending on the specific grade.
- Imported POE prices fluctuate in line with the international market. Due to reduced arrivals, prices have also risen.

4. Market Sentiment
- Traders exhibit strong bullish sentiment, with increased reluctance to sell. Some traders are holding back stock in anticipation of further price increases.
- Downstream enterprises, facing rising prices, have adopted cautious procurement strategies, purchasing only as needed. Some companies show signs of proactive inventory building.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Tight supply conditions are unlikely to ease in the short term: Maintenance by domestic enterprises and reduced imports have decreased market supply. Low port inventories further exacerbate the tight supply situation, which is expected to persist in the near term.

2. Strong demand support: The rapid growth in demand from the PV sector provides solid support for the POE market, while stable demand from the automotive and other sectors plays a supplementary role. Overall, the demand side is performing well.

3. Continued upward price momentum: Driven by tight supply and robust demand, the market faces significant supply-demand imbalances. Traders' reluctance to sell and procurement behaviors by downstream enterprises will continue to push POE prices higher.

Forecast

1. Price Trend: Over the next week, POE market prices will continue to rise, with expected increases of 300–800 RMB/ton. If overseas maintenance periods extend or domestic maintenance exceeds expectations, price increases could widen further.

2. Supply Situation: As domestic enterprises complete their maintenance, output will gradually recover. However, import arrivals are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, keeping overall market supply tight.

3. Demand Situation: Demand in the PV sector will remain strong, while demand in the automotive and other sectors will stay stable. Traditional sectors such as footwear materials will see little change. Overall, demand will continue to provide strong support to the market.

4. Market Sentiment: Traders' bullish sentiment will remain unchanged. Downstream enterprises may adjust procurement strategies based on price movements. If prices rise too rapidly, some companies may reduce purchasing volumes and wait for price corrections.