Polyethylene, Oxidized

I. Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- The domestic POE market price is currently exhibiting a narrow range of fluctuations. Prices for certain mainstream grades have seen slight increases, ranging from 200 to 500 RMB/ton, primarily driven by raw material cost support and localized supply tightness.
- Imported POE prices remain relatively stable, but prices for certain high-end grades face some uncertainty due to changes in international supply and demand and exchange rate fluctuations.
2. Supply Status
- The operating rate of domestic POE production enterprises remains stable, with no news of new capacity releases. Production volumes of some enterprises have fluctuated slightly due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues, but the overall supply volume has not changed significantly.
- On the import front, the number of recent arriving vessels is basically normal. However, supply of some high-end products has tightened due to issues with overseas production facilities.
3. Demand Status
- Demand in the photovoltaic sector continues to improve. With the increase in photovoltaic installation volume, demand for POE encapsulant films is steadily rising, becoming the main driver pulling POE demand.
- Demand in the automotive industry is stable. The application of POE in automotive parts shows stable growth, but the growth rate is relatively slow.
- Demand in industries such as packaging and wires/cables remains unchanged, with POE procurement mainly on an as-needed basis.
4. Raw Material Market
- Ethylene prices have recently fluctuated within a narrow range, providing limited cost support for POE.
- Octene supply is relatively stable, with minor price fluctuations, having little impact on POE costs.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Causes of Price Fluctuations
- Regarding raw material costs, ethylene and octene prices are relatively stable, not exerting significant pushing or suppressing effects on POE prices.
- On the supply side, domestic production is stable but with localized fluctuations, and the supply of imported high-end products has tightened, making the overall market supply slightly tight and supporting a narrow upward trend in prices.
- On the demand side, strong demand in the photovoltaic industry is the main factor driving POE prices, while demand in other industries is stable and has not had a significant impact on prices.
2. Market Supply and Demand Relationship
- Currently, the market supply and demand are in a relatively balanced but slightly tight state. In terms of supply, domestic production is stable but with limited increments, and the supply of imported high-end products has decreased. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic industry's demand continues to grow, while demand in other industries is stable, resulting in an overall market condition of supply falling short of demand, although the degree of tightness is limited.

III. Forecast
1. Price Trend Forecast
- In the short term, POE market prices are expected to continue a narrow upward trend. Sustained strong demand in the photovoltaic industry will provide strong support for prices, and the tight supply situation for imported high-end products, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, will also push prices up. However, considering that raw material costs remain relatively stable, the magnitude of price increases is expected to be limited.
- In the medium to long term, if new domestic POE capacity is released smoothly, market supply will increase, potentially facing downward pressure on prices. However, if the photovoltaic industry's demand maintains rapid growth, it will to some extent alleviate the downward price pressure caused by increased supply.
2. Supply and Demand Relationship Forecast
- In the short term, the tight market supply and demand situation will persist. Domestic production enterprises' operating rates are stable, imported high-end product supply is tight, and photovoltaic industry demand continues to grow while other industries' demand remains stable, making it difficult for market supply to meet demand.
- In the medium to long term, as new domestic POE capacity is gradually released, market supply will increase, and the supply and demand relationship is expected to tend toward balance. However, if the growth rate of photovoltaic industry demand exceeds the growth rate of supply, the market may still present a situation of supply falling short of demand.