1,2-Hexanediol

Recent Market Dynamics

1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The mainstream quotation for 1,2-hexanediol in the domestic market has shown a slight upward fluctuation over the past week. In the East China region, prices rose from RMB 18,000–19,000 per ton to RMB 18,500–19,500 per ton; in the South China region, prices increased from RMB 18,200–19,200 per ton to RMB 18,700–19,700 per ton.
- International Market: In Asia, FOB Korea prices rose from USD 2,300–2,400 per ton to USD 2,350–2,450 per ton; in Europe, CIF Rotterdam prices increased from EUR 2,600–2,700 per ton to EUR 2,650–2,750 per ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- The overall operating rate of domestic producers remains stable, hovering around 75%–80%. Some enterprises experienced slight production declines due to scheduled equipment maintenance, but the impact on overall supply was minimal.
- Regarding imports, the volume of arriving cargo has increased recently, mainly from South Korea and Japan, helping to fill part of the domestic supply gap.

3. **Demand Situation**
- The downstream coatings industry has entered its traditional peak season, leading to a significant rise in demand for 1,2-hexanediol, with some coatings companies increasing their procurement volumes.
- Demand in the cosmetics sector remains steadily growing. High-quality standards are required for this industry, driving strong demand for premium-grade products.
- Demand in the polyurethane sector has also improved. With development in the construction and automotive industries, increased demand for polyurethane materials has further boosted demand for 1,2-hexanediol.

4. **Cost Factors**
- The price of the main raw material, ethylene oxide, has remained relatively stable at approximately RMB 7,000–7,200 per ton, providing moderate cost support for 1,2-hexanediol.
- Energy prices, including coal and natural gas, have shown minor fluctuations, having little impact on production costs.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Increase**
- Demand Side: Increased demand from downstream industries such as coatings, cosmetics, and polyurethane, particularly the surge in procurement due to the coatings industry’s peak season, has driven prices upward.
- Supply Side: Although domestic producers’ operating rates are stable, scheduled maintenance has slightly reduced output. While imported supplies have increased, the overall growth in supply has not kept pace with the rise in demand, resulting in a relatively tight market supply.

2. **Market Sentiment**
- Traders and downstream enterprises generally hold an optimistic outlook for the future, believing that continued demand growth will support further price increases. Consequently, procurement enthusiasm is high, and market trading activity is active.

Forecast

1. **Short-Term (1–2 Weeks)**
- Prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend, with an increase of approximately RMB 300–500 per ton. The strong demand from downstream sectors is unlikely to change significantly in the short term. Although production will recover after equipment maintenance, it may not quickly meet the heightened market demand.

2. **Medium-Term (1–2 Months)**
- If downstream demand remains robust and domestic producers do not implement large-scale capacity expansions, with limited additional import supplies, prices could rise further to RMB 20,000–21,000 per ton. However, if downstream companies reduce procurement due to high prices or if domestic enterprises significantly increase output, the upward price trend may be curbed.

3. **Long-Term (3–6 Months)**
- Attention should be paid to seasonal changes in downstream industries and the macroeconomic environment. If the macroeconomic situation remains favorable and downstream demand continues steady growth, prices may stay at elevated levels. Conversely, if the macroeconomy deteriorates and downstream demand weakens, prices may decline. Additionally, fluctuations in raw material and energy prices will also influence 1,2-hexanediol pricing.