L-Threonine

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The mainstream quotes for L-threonine have shown a steady upward trend recently. Some large-scale producers have raised their ex-factory prices by 200-300 RMB/ton, with market transaction prices following suit. Currently, the mainstream transaction price range is 9,500-10,000 RMB/ton.
- International Market: L-threonine prices in Asia have also risen, with FOB China main port prices increasing by approximately 50-80 USD/ton compared to last week, reaching 1,350-1,400 USD/ton. Prices in the European market have also seen a 3%-5% increase due to raw material costs and supply constraints.
2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic production capacity utilization rates remain generally stable. Some enterprises have experienced slight declines in output due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance, but there is no significant overall shortage of supply. However, news of delayed new capacity commissioning plans has emerged, limiting short-term supply growth.
- Internationally, major producing countries, such as some European enterprises, have faced production constraints due to rising energy costs, leading to reduced export volumes and further exacerbating the tight supply situation in the international market.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Domestic demand for L-threonine from the feed industry remains robust. With the gradual recovery of the pig farming sector and increased feed production, procurement volumes for L-threonine have risen. Meanwhile, the steady growth in poultry farming scale has further driven demand for L-threonine.
- In international markets, importing demand for L-threonine is increasing in Southeast Asia and South Asia due to the development of the livestock industry. In Europe and America, rising meat demand driven by holiday consumption has boosted feed industry procurement of L-threonine.
4. **Cost Aspect**
- The price of the main raw material, corn, has continued to rise recently. This is influenced by reduced corn planting area, weather-related impacts on yield, and the transmission of international corn market prices, leading to a significant increase in corn prices, which directly drives up the production costs of L-threonine.
- Energy prices have also fluctuated, with increases in coal and natural gas prices raising energy costs for enterprises, further compressing profit margins and prompting companies to raise product selling prices.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Reasons for Price Increase**: On the supply side, delayed new capacity commissioning domestically and constrained supply in major international producing countries have resulted in insufficient overall supply growth. On the demand side, growing domestic and international feed industry demand for L-threonine has tightened the supply-demand balance, becoming the primary driver of price increases. Additionally, rising costs of corn and energy have provided support for price hikes.
2. **Market Sentiment**: Producers have a strong willingness to maintain high prices due to rising costs and tight supply. Traders, optimistic about the future market, have high enthusiasm for stockpiling, further pushing market prices upward. Although downstream feed enterprises have some resistance to price increases, they are compelled to accept higher prices and increase procurement volumes due to rigid demand.

Forecast
1. **Short-term (1-2 months)**: L-threonine market prices will continue to rise. The impact of delayed new capacity commissioning will persist, and the international supply tightness is unlikely to ease quickly. Demand from domestic and international feed industries will remain strong. Corn and energy prices are expected to stay high, further supporting price increases. It is estimated that domestic market prices will exceed 10,000 RMB/ton, and international FOB China main port prices could reach 1,450-1,500 USD/ton.
2. **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: As new capacities gradually come online, the tight supply situation will ease to some extent. However, demand will continue to grow. If cost prices remain high, L-threonine prices will oscillate at a high level. If new capacity commissioning accelerates and supply increases significantly, prices may experience a certain degree of correction, but the extent of the decline will be limited.
3. **Long-term (6+ months)**: The market supply-demand relationship will gradually balance, and prices will return to a reasonable range. However, factors such as raw material price fluctuations, changes in environmental policies, and international trade conditions need to be monitored, as they may cause significant price volatility.