Zinc glycinate

Glycine Zinc Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- **Domestic Market**: Over the past week, glycine zinc prices have shown slight fluctuations, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 18,500 to 19,200 RMB/ton. This represents an increase of approximately 2.3% compared to the same period last month, primarily driven by rising raw material costs and supported by downstream inventory replenishment demand.
- **International Market**: FOB China port prices remain stable at USD 2,550-2,650/ton. Export orders are predominantly based on long-term contracts, while the spot market remains quiet.

2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**
- **Supply Side**:
- Domestic major producers maintain operating rates of 75%-80%. Some manufacturers have temporarily suspended production due to environmental restrictions, leading to tight spot market circulation.
- Import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month, mainly because overseas suppliers are prioritizing their own downstream supply chains.
- **Demand Side**:
- The feed additive industry accounts for over 60% of demand. Improved profits in hog farming have increased the enthusiasm for restocking, driving growth in glycine zinc procurement.
- Demand in the pharmaceutical and health supplement sectors remains stable, with procurement occurring on an as-needed basis and no significant incremental demand.

3. **Cost Drivers**
- The price of raw material glycine increased by 3.5% this week to 8,200 RMB/ton, while zinc oxide prices remained stable at 22,000 RMB/ton, providing strong cost support.
- Seasonal increases in energy costs (natural gas and electricity) have further compressed the profit margins of production enterprises.

4. **Inventory Levels**
- Domestic social inventory has dropped to 12,000 tons, the lowest level in the past three months, leading to increased reluctance among traders to sell.
- Manufacturer inventory turnover days have shortened to 10-15 days, with some specifications experiencing stockouts.

5. **Policy and Industry Trends**
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued the \"Standards for Amino Acid Balance in Feed,\" promoting the standardized use of trace element additives such as glycine zinc, which is beneficial for long-term demand.
- Environmental inspection teams have been deployed in major production areas such as Shandong and Hebei, forcing some small and medium-sized enterprises to suspend operations for rectification, strengthening expectations of supply-side contraction.

6. **Impact of Related Products**
- Zinc sulfate prices are running weak, widening the price gap with glycine zinc to 3,000 RMB/ton. Some downstream users are shifting to the more cost-effective zinc sulfate, which limits the growth space for glycine zinc demand.
- Prices for other amino acid products such as lysine and methionine are rising simultaneously, creating a synergistic cost-push effect.

Analysis and Forecast

1. **Short-term (1-2 weeks)**:
- Prices are expected to remain firm with fluctuations, with the mainstream range at 18,800-19,500 RMB/ton. Supported by costs and low inventory, trader quotes may continue to rise.
- Attention should be paid to the intensity of environmental production restrictions and downstream acceptance of high prices. If inventory replenishment demand slows, prices may face downward pressure.

2. **Medium-term (1-3 months)**:
- As profits in hog farming continue to improve, demand for feed additives is expected to grow steadily. Combined with seasonal maintenance on the supply side (such as summer high-temperature shutdowns), the price center may shift upward to 19,500-20,500 RMB/ton.
- Caution is needed regarding the potential impact of a rebound in overseas import volumes and price drops in substitutes like zinc sulfate.

3. **Long-term (3-6 months)**:
- Driven by policy, the standardization process in the feed industry is accelerating, optimizing the demand structure for glycine zinc, and the long-term price center is expected to rise.
- It is recommended to monitor the progress of capacity expansion for raw material glycine and the potential diversion effect of new energy sectors (such as zinc-air batteries) on zinc oxide.