Vinylidene chloride

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The price of 1,1-dichloroethylene has recently shown a narrow fluctuation trend. The mainstream price in the East China region is 12,000–12,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly fluctuation of approximately ±200 yuan/ton; the price in the North China region is 11,800–12,300 yuan/ton, also maintaining relatively stable minor fluctuations.
- International Market: Internationally, the price of 1,1-dichloroethylene in the US market is 1,800–1,900 USD/ton (FOB price), while the price in the European market is 1,750–1,850 EUR/ton. Recent international prices have also seen minor adjustments due to exchange rate fluctuations and regional supply-demand changes, but the overall fluctuation range is smaller than that in the domestic market.
2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic Production Capacity: The operating rate of major domestic 1,1-dichloroethylene producers remains around 75%–80%. Some enterprises have limited capacity due to routine maintenance, but the overall supply volume has not decreased significantly. There is no clear information on new projects coming online recently.
- Import Situation: Import volumes have remained relatively stable recently, with monthly imports ranging from 500 to 800 tons. Main sources of imports include the United States and certain European countries. Imported products are primarily used domestically to supplement demand in high-end application fields.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream Industries: The main downstream sectors for 1,1-dichloroethylene include poly-1,1-dichloroethylene resin and pesticide intermediates. The operating rate in the poly-1,1-dichloroethylene resin industry is currently 70%–75%, with stable demand for 1,1-dichloroethylene; the pesticide intermediate industry, influenced by seasonal factors, has seen increased demand for some products, slightly boosting demand for 1,1-dichloroethylene.
- Export Situation: Export volumes have recently shown some growth, with monthly exports ranging from 300 to 500 tons. Main export destinations include Southeast Asia and South Asia. Exported products are primarily mid-to-low-end specifications, meeting basic industrial needs in those regions.
4. **Cost Aspects**
- Raw Material Prices: The price of the main raw material, ethylene, has fluctuated frequently recently, influenced by international crude oil prices and the operating status of ethylene plants. Ethylene prices fluctuate between 7,000 and 7,500 yuan/ton, providing strong cost support for 1,1-dichloroethylene. Chlorine prices remain relatively stable at 200–250 yuan/ton, having a minor impact on costs.
- Production Costs: Considering raw materials and other production costs, the current production cost of 1,1-dichloroethylene is around 10,500–11,000 yuan/ton, leaving limited profit margins for enterprises.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Supply-Demand Relationship**: The current 1,1-dichloroethylene market is in a basic supply-demand balance. Although some enterprises are undergoing maintenance on the supply side, the overall operating rate is acceptable, and stable import volumes provide supplementation. On the demand side, downstream industry demand is stable, and export growth also provides some market pull. However, due to limited profit margins for enterprises, there is insufficient motivation for further production increases.
2. **Cost Impact**: Fluctuations in the raw material ethylene price have a significant impact on the cost of 1,1-dichloroethylene. If ethylene prices continue to rise, enterprise profits will be squeezed, potentially leading to price increases or reduced operating rates; if ethylene prices fall, it will help enterprises reduce costs and stabilize market prices.
3. **Market Sentiment**: Market participants are relatively cautious. Traders mostly purchase based on demand and are hesitant to stockpile large quantities; production enterprises also arrange production reasonably based on orders to avoid inventory buildup.

Forecast
1. **Price Aspect**: In the short term, the price of 1,1-dichloroethylene is expected to continue its narrow fluctuation trend, with the domestic market price range projected at 11,800–12,500 yuan/ton. If significant fluctuations occur in raw material ethylene prices, the price may adjust accordingly, but the magnitude will not be large.
2. **Supply Aspect**: Over the coming period, the operating rate of domestic production enterprises is expected to remain relatively stable, and new capacity release will still take time. Import volumes are also not expected to change significantly, with overall supply remaining at current levels.
3. **Demand Aspect**: Downstream industry demand will continue to remain stable, and export volumes are expected to continue growing with increased international market demand, although the growth rate will be limited. Overall demand will provide a stable support for market prices.