Chlorodifluoromethane

Recent R22 Commodity Market Intelligence

1. Price Trends
- The average domestic R22 market price rose by 2.3% week-on-week. Mainstream quotes in the East China region range from 18,500 to 19,000 CNY/ton, while South China prices are slightly higher at 19,200 to 19,500 CNY/ton.
- Chloroform prices remain stable, while hydrofluoric acid has increased by 3% due to tight supply, strengthening cost-side support.

2. Supply Situation
- Utilization rates at major manufacturers are maintained at 75%-80%. Companies such as Shandong Dongyue and Zhejiang Juhua are undergoing scheduled maintenance, reducing the volume of spot goods in circulation.
- Import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month, primarily due to overseas plant maintenance and rising logistics costs.

3. Demand Dynamics
- The refrigerant industry has entered its traditional peak season, with increased restocking demand from air conditioner production. Demand for R22, the primary model for the repair market, remains robust.
- Utilization rates for downstream products such as Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) have risen to 85%, ensuring stable rigid demand for R22.

4. Policy and Environmental Impact
- The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has reaffirmed the HCFCs phase-out schedule, with a 35% quota reduction in 2025, increasing corporate willingness to stockpile.
- Stricter environmental inspections in northern regions have led to production cuts by some small and medium-sized manufacturers, exacerbating regional supply tightness.

5. Inventory Levels
- Manufacturer inventories decreased by 8% week-on-week. Social inventories are at a three-year low, and traders are increasingly reluctant to sell.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Cost Drivers: Rising hydrofluoric acid prices and chloroform cost support are pushing R22 price centers upward.
2. Supply-Demand Imbalance: Plant maintenance on the supply side, combined with reduced imports, contrasts with significant peak-season effects on the demand side, widening the short-term supply-demand gap.
3. Policy Expectations: Anticipation of quota reductions has prompted downstream companies to stockpile in advance, further intensifying market tension.

Forecast
1. Price Trend: R22 prices are expected to continue rising over the next two weeks, targeting a range of 19,500 to 20,500 CNY/ton. Attention should be paid to hydrofluoric acid price fluctuations and manufacturer maintenance schedules.
2. Market Risks: If downstream acceptance of high prices declines, a phased pullback may occur; however, long-term prices remain difficult to fall due to policy-driven factors.
3. Operational Recommendations: Traders may consider appropriate restocking, while downstream enterprises should procure as needed. Close attention should be paid to July quota implementation and manufacturer production plans.