Chlorodifluoromethane

R22 Recent Commodity Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
Price Trends
- Recent Price: As of June 22, 2026, the R22 price stands at RMB 22,500.00 per metric ton, up by 6.30% over the past 30 days, 15.38% over the past 60 days, and 29.81% over the past 90 days. From early June to June 22, prices have remained generally stable, with no change observed over the most recent week.
- Historical Price Comparison: Around June 20, 2025, the ex-factory negotiated price for ODS-grade R22 at enterprise level stabilized between RMB 35,500–37,000 per metric ton. Specifically, Zhejiang and Shandong provinces reported an ex-factory price (tax-inclusive, pickup basis) of RMB 37,000/ton, while Jiangsu province reported RMB 35,500/ton. Compared with current pricing, prices in 2025 were significantly higher; however, the 2025 market conditions were heavily influenced by comprehensive policy bans on production and use, rendering direct comparisons with the present market context less meaningful.

Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side
- Quota Constraints: The global phase-out of second-generation refrigerants—including R22—continues to advance, and China’s implementation of the Montreal Protocol has intensified. In 2025, R22 production quotas decreased by 17.42% year-on-year, with domestic-use quotas down by 27.13%. Quotas remain further tightened in 2026, prompting manufacturers to adopt conservative production strategies and resulting in limited spot supply.
- Production Status: Major producers maintain moderate inventory levels. For instance, Jiangsu Meilan Chemical’s R22 unit operates at approximately 70% capacity utilization, with inventory described as “normal.” Leading enterprises—benefiting from high quota concentration and superior inventory management capabilities—maintain relatively stable operations, whereas smaller- and medium-sized enterprises face slower inventory turnover due to stricter quota constraints and ongoing regulatory crackdowns on illegal production.
- Crackdown on Illegal Activities: The nationwide “Crackdown on Illegal Production and Distribution” campaign, intensively implemented since 2025, has effectively dismantled unauthorized production capacity and illicit distribution channels. Consequently, low-priced, off-market dumping has diminished markedly, alleviating inventory pressure on legitimate supply channels.
- Demand Side
- After-sales Maintenance Market: R22 remains dominant in the air-conditioning after-sales maintenance segment, where demand is highly inelastic to price fluctuations. With rising ambient temperatures, the air-conditioning maintenance season has commenced, driving increased demand for small-packaged refrigerants—and thus boosting R22 consumption.
- Export Market: Export orders for alternative refrigerants such as R125 and R134a remain robust, reflecting strong overseas demand. This export activity helps absorb domestic supply surplus and provides indirect support to the R22 market. However, export prices (RMB 31,000–33,000/ton) still lag behind domestic prices (RMB 35,500–37,000/ton).
- Air-conditioning Manufacturing: Entering the pre-peak cooling season in May, heightened summer temperatures—exacerbated by El Ni?o—are expected to drive substantial increases in air-conditioner operational load. Downstream production planning and procurement activities are gradually accelerating. Air-conditioner production volume in June rose 11.5% year-on-year, further stimulating R22 procurement demand.

Cost Factors
Upstream raw materials—including anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and crude oil—continue trading at elevated levels, increasing production costs. To safeguard profitability, manufacturers have passed on cost pressures via price hikes, thereby contributing to upward price momentum in the R22 market.

II. Analysis and Assessment
Drivers of Price Increases
- Supply Contraction: Reduced production quotas have constrained manufacturers’ operating rates. Additionally, seasonal plant maintenance cycles—following high-load operation during the first half of the year—further curtail R22 output, exacerbating tightness in spot supply and reinforcing a supply-deficit market structure.
- Demand Support: Robust, inelastic demand from the air-conditioning maintenance sector, coupled with steady export demand, provides firm underpinning for R22 pricing. Concurrently, the onset of peak-season air-conditioner manufacturing amplifies procurement requirements.
- Cost Push: Rising input costs have prompted widespread price adjustments by producers to preserve margins, directly fueling R22 price appreciation.

Market Risks
- Disruption from Illicit Supply: Although the anti-illegal campaign has yielded significant results, pockets of low-priced illegal product persist regionally, posing intermittent, latent downward pressure on officially quoted prices.
- Demand Shortfall Risk: Should summer temperatures prove milder than forecasted—leading to weaker-than-expected air-conditioner sales and lower operational loads—refrigerant procurement may decelerate, weighing on prices. Moreover, broader rollout of appliance “trade-in-for-upgrade” policies could dampen maintenance demand, potentially triggering inventory overhang.

III. Forecast
Short Term (1–3 months)
The R22 price is expected to remain in a high-level, range-bound uptrend. Peak-season air-conditioner manufacturing will extend through Q3, sustaining strong producer pricing discipline. Meanwhile, persistent quota tightening and low inventories on the supply side are unlikely to ease significantly in the near term—all supporting price resilience. Nevertheless, given limited market tolerance for further price escalation—and considering residual risks from illicit supply and potential demand shortfalls—the likelihood of sharp price gains remains low.

Long Term (3 months and beyond)
Accelerated adoption of environmentally compliant alternatives—including R410A and R290—will continue eroding R22’s share in new equipment manufacturing, leading to sustained structural decline in end-use demand. Consequently, long-term R22 pricing faces gradual downward pressure. However, in the near-to-medium term, robust demand from the air-conditioning maintenance sector—combined with persistent supply constraints—will prevent any precipitous price collapse.