Calcium fluoride

Fluorspar Market Intelligence Report (April 8, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Recent Prices
- Domestic fluorspar average price stood at RMB 3,575.00/ton on April 7, 2026—up 3.62% over the past 30 days and 3.53% over the past 90 days.
- Grade-based pricing: Port arrival price for high-grade fluorspar (CaF? > 97%) ranged from RMB 3,300–3,500/ton; mid-to-low grade (CaF? ≤ 97%) priced between RMB 1,800–2,300/ton.
- Regional variation: Wet-ground 97%-grade fluorspar in Inner Mongolia traded at RMB 2,700–3,100/ton; prices in Fujian, Henan, and Jiangxi provinces ranged from RMB 2,600–3,100/ton.

2. Historical Comparison
- Prices peaked at RMB 3,650/ton in October 2025—a 60-day increase of 14.73%. Early-2026 saw a correction to RMB 3,481.25/ton, followed by a gradual recovery.
- Overall, domestic fluorspar prices declined 6.14% in 2025. In 2026, modest bottom-up recovery is expected, with RMB 3,000/ton serving as a strong support level.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Domestic constraints intensified: depletion of high-quality resources, stricter environmental standards (carbon intensity ≤ 0.45 tons CO?/ton), and enhanced mine safety requirements have kept industry operating rates at a low 55%–60%.
- Global supply tightening: Major producing countries—including Mexico and South Africa—have tightened resource controls, reducing exports by 5%. Meanwhile, low-cost imports from Mongolia increased by 10%–15%, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices.
- Policy regulation: Fluorspar has been officially included in China’s strategic mineral list. The 2026 national mining quota is capped at 4.45 million tons. Environmental policies are accelerating the exit of small- and medium-sized producers, raising the market share of leading enterprises to 38.3%.

2. Demand Side
- New Energy Sector: Demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF?) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) grew 15%–20% year-on-year, generating ~30,000 tons/year of incremental demand.
- Refrigerant Industry: Export demand rose 6%–8%, supported by relaxed production quotas and overseas air-conditioner replacement cycles.
- Traditional Demand: Hydrofluoric acid (HF) production remains constrained by environmental regulations, with operating rates below 50%; end-users remain highly price-sensitive to elevated fluorspar costs.
- High-End Applications: Semiconductor and optical industries are driving demand for ultra-high-purity fluorspar (99.99% purity); domestic production share rose from 35% to 50%.

III. Industry Developments
1. Technological Advancement
- Comprehensive tailings utilization rate improved from 31.5% to 58.7%, and green mining technologies have lowered production costs.
- Breakthroughs in deep-processing technologies have enhanced self-sufficiency in high-end products; rising domestic production of electronic-grade hydrogen fluoride (e-HF) has directly boosted demand for high-purity fluorspar concentrate.

2. Competitive Landscape
- Market leadership consolidated among top-tier enterprises, supplemented by regional brands; industry concentration continues to rise, with average single-mine capacity increasing to 32,000 tons/year.
- Export quota restrictions imposed by Mexico, South Africa, and other countries have exacerbated global supply tightness. China has implemented zero tariff on low-arsenic fluorspar to stimulate imports.

IV. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Volatility
- Regional shortages may emerge during the Q3 peak season, potentially pushing prices higher—but Mongolian low-cost supplies will cap upside potential.
- Weak traditional demand (e.g., HF) and low price tolerance among downstream users will restrain rapid price increases.

2. Long-Term Trend
- Resource scarcity and strategic designation underpin an upward shift in the price center; high-grade fluorspar prices are expected to stabilize within RMB 3,300–3,500/ton.
- Robust, structural demand growth from new energy and semiconductor sectors is shifting the industry’s focus from “scale expansion” toward “value creation.”

V. Price Forecast
1. 2026 Outlook
- Prices are projected to exhibit “bottom-lifted, range-bound” behavior, with the annual average slightly higher than in 2025.
- Full-year average price is forecast at RMB 3,200–3,600/ton; high-grade fluorspar may exceed RMB 3,500/ton.

2. Key Risks
- Excessive growth in Mongolian imports could trigger price corrections.
- Slower-than-expected growth or policy shifts in the new energy sector may weaken long-term price support.