Amino-2-propanol

I. Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- The market price of monoisopropanolamine (MIPA) in China has recently exhibited a narrow fluctuation trend. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region is 12,000–12,500 RMB/ton, in the South China region it is 12,200–12,700 RMB/ton, and in the North China region it is 11,800–12,300 RMB/ton. Regional price differences are primarily influenced by transportation costs and local supply-demand dynamics.
- Compared with the same period last week, the overall price fluctuation remained within ±200 RMB/ton. Market prices remained relatively stable, with no significant increases or decreases observed.
2. Supply Situation
- The operating rate of domestic MIPA production enterprises is maintained at approximately 70%–75%. Some large enterprises have stable production operations and are producing according to orders; some small and medium-sized enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in operating rates due to environmental inspections and equipment maintenance, but the overall impact on market supply is limited.
- On the import side, recent MIPA import volumes have remained relatively stable, with the main sources being Europe and the United States. Due to the rise in international shipping costs, the landed cost of imported goods has increased slightly. However, importers have not significantly raised domestic sales prices in order to maintain their market share.
3. Demand Situation
- Downstream industry demand shows mixed performance. In the cement grinding aid sector, demand for MIPA has increased slightly as infrastructure projects have commenced, but the increase is limited, mainly because some enterprises still have inventory to be digested.
- In the surfactant sector, demand is relatively stable, with enterprises purchasing as needed and no large-scale stockpiling observed. In the pharmaceutical intermediate sector, demand is influenced by pharmaceutical production plans and has shown no significant changes recently.
4. Inventory Situation
- Production enterprise inventories are at a moderate level, with some enterprises maintaining a certain level of safety stock to prepare for potential changes in market demand. Trader inventories are relatively low; given the limited market price fluctuations, traders are operating cautiously and are reluctant to stockpile large quantities, primarily adopting a quick-in, quick-out strategy.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Reasons for Price Stability
- Basic supply-demand balance is the primary factor for price stability. On the supply side, the operating rate of production enterprises is stable, import volumes are steady, and market supply is sufficient. On the demand side, although demand in various sectors has increased or decreased, the overall change is minimal, with no clear situation of oversupply or shortage.
- Market participants’ mindsets are relatively calm. Production enterprises focus on stable production and ensuring order delivery; traders operate cautiously; and downstream enterprises purchase as needed. There has been no panic buying or selling, which has helped maintain stable market prices.
2. Analysis of Influencing Factors
- Cost: The price of propylene oxide, the main raw material for MIPA, has fluctuated slightly recently, having little impact on MIPA costs. However, instability in international crude oil prices may indirectly affect propylene oxide prices, thereby exerting some pressure on MIPA costs.
- Policy: The impact of environmental policies on production enterprises continues. Some small and medium-sized enterprises may face production restrictions or shutdowns due to non-compliance with environmental standards, which will affect the market supply landscape. However, the short-term impact on prices is limited.

III. Forecast
1. Short-Term Forecast (1–2 Weeks)
- Price: MIPA market prices are expected to continue the narrow fluctuation trend, with a range of ±200 RMB/ton. Given the basic supply-demand balance and stable market participants’ mindsets, the possibility of significant price increases or decreases is low.
- Supply: Production enterprise operating rates are expected to remain at current levels, and import volumes will not show significant changes. Market supply will continue to remain sufficient.
- Demand: Downstream industry demand is expected to remain stable. Demand in the cement grinding aid sector may increase slightly as infrastructure projects progress, but overall demand growth will be limited.
2. Medium-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
- Price: If international crude oil prices continue to rise, leading to higher propylene oxide prices and increased MIPA costs, market prices may see a slight increase. However, if downstream demand does not improve significantly, the magnitude of price increases will be limited.
- Supply: With the continuous advancement of environmental inspections, some small and medium-sized enterprises may be forced to suspend operations for rectification due to environmental issues, potentially reducing market supply. However, large enterprises may compensate for the supply gap by increasing their operating rates.
- Demand: The continued advancement of infrastructure projects is expected to drive increased demand for MIPA in the cement grinding aid sector, while demand in the surfactant and pharmaceutical intermediate sectors is expected to remain stable with slight growth. Overall, market demand is expected to grow slightly in the medium term.