Methacrylic acid

Market Dynamics Report on Methyl Methacrylate

I. Price Dynamics
- **East China Market**: As of July 24, the transaction price reference for methyl methacrylate was around 15,000 RMB/ton.
- **Shandong Market**: As of July 24, the market price reference for methyl methacrylate was 14,600 RMB/ton. With significant cost increases, stockholders pushed for price hikes. Downstream demand followed the basic necessities, making low prices hard to find, and the center of gravity for negotiations moved upward.
- **Sunshang (Societe des Chemins de Fer de l'Est) Benchmark Price**: As of July 27, the benchmark price for methyl methacrylate on Sunshang was 15,233.33 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous few days.

II. Related Product Price Dynamics
- **Hydroxyethyl Methacrylate (HEMA)**: From July 22 to July 27, the market price of hydroxyethyl methacrylate fluctuated within a range, trading between 14,200 and 14,600 RMB/ton. Downstream demand was average, with transactions mostly based on individual negotiated deals.
- **Glycidyl Methacrylate (GMA)**: As of July 24, Shandong Guangpu’s 30,000-ton/year GMA production unit was operating normally. The manufacturer’s quoted price was 35,000 RMB/ton, with room for negotiation on actual orders.

III. Market Supply and Demand Analysis
- **Supply Side**: The overall supply of methyl methacrylate has been stable recently. Some manufacturers in Shandong have pushed for price increases due to higher costs, indicating a willingness to support prices from the supply side.
- **Demand Side**: Downstream demand has followed basic necessities, but overall performance has been average, showing no significant signs of growth or contraction. Downstream products such as hydroxyethyl methacrylate have also exhibited range-bound trading characteristics, with limited price support from the demand side.

IV. Industry Dynamics and Policy Impact
- **Industry Scale and Growth**: The global methyl methacrylate market is projected to reach 15.944 billion RMB by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.13%. As an important market in the Asia-Pacific region, China’s methyl methacrylate market is also expanding.
- **Policy Environment**: Environmental protection policies are increasingly impacting the chemical industry. Methyl methacrylate manufacturers are increasing their investments in environmental compliance, which may affect production costs. Additionally, the trend of rectifying chemical industrial parks and tightening safety production regulations requires enterprises to enhance safety management to ensure stable production.

Analysis and Judgment
- **Price Trend**: Recently, the market price of methyl methacrylate has risen due to increased costs. However, average downstream demand limits further price increases. It is expected that the market price will remain stable in the short term, with limited fluctuation.
- **Supply-Demand Relationship**: The current supply-demand relationship for methyl methacrylate is relatively balanced. The supply side’s willingness to support prices and the limited support from the demand side constrain each other, keeping market prices relatively stable.
- **Industry Trends**: With the expansion of the global methyl methacrylate market and the continued growth of the Chinese market, the industry is poised for new development opportunities. However, stricter environmental policies and safety regulations will impose higher requirements on enterprises, driving the industry toward green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.

Forecast
- **Short-Term Forecast**: Over the next week, the market price of methyl methacrylate is expected to remain stable, with fluctuations within ±200 RMB/ton.
- **Medium- to Long-Term Forecast**: As downstream demand gradually materializes and supply-side capacity adjusts reasonably, the market price of methyl methacrylate is expected to show a gentle upward trend in the coming months. However, the specific extent of the increase will depend on various factors, including raw material price fluctuations, changes in environmental policies, and shifts in market demand.