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China and India are the leading exporters of 4,4'-Butylidenebis(6-tert-butyl-m-cresol), accounting for the majority of global shipments, while the United States, Germany, and South Korea represent the largest importers. Import volumes into the U.S. and EU have remained relatively stable over the past two years, with modest upward pressure on 4,4'-Butylidenebis(6-tert-butyl-m-cresol) prices reflecting tightening supply from key Asian producers.
# Antioxidant BBM Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence Analysis Report
**Intelligence Period: October 12, 2026 – November 12, 2026**
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## I. Price Trends
### 1.1 Core Quotation Data
| Time Node | Quoting Enterprise | Ex-Factory Price (Tax Included) (CNY/kg) | Delivery Location | Specification |
|-----------|----------|----------------------|--------|------|
| 2026-10-09 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-10-10 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-10-14 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-10-15 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-10-16 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-11-04 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-11-05 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-11-06 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-11-09 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
| 2026-11-10 | Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd. | 82 | Suzhou, Jiangsu Province | Industrial Grade |
### 1.2 Price Trend Assessment
Over the past month, the ex-factory price of Antioxidant BBM has remained **completely static and rock-solid**, consistently anchored at **82 CNY/kg**. From January 2026 to November 2026, this nearly ten-month price plateau reflects a highly balanced supply and demand structure for this variety—there is neither a sharp contraction on the supply side pushing prices up, nor a cliff-like decline in demand on the buyer side pulling quotes down. The fact that SunSirs (Shengyishe) continuously released price updates for this variety on November 6, 9, and 10 indicates that market attention remains, yet the price signal is exceptionally quiet.
---
## II. Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals
### 2.1 Supply Side
- Domestic antioxidant industry capacity continues to expand. In 2024, the total national antioxidant production reached **1.27 million tons**, a year-on-year increase of **15.6%**. The East China region contributed approximately **60%** of total production, with Jiangsu, as a core production area, possessing ample supply capacity.
- Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials Co., Ltd., as the primary quoting entity for the BBM variety, quoted a volume of **10,000 kg** with a packaging specification of 25 kg/drum, indicating its capability for stable bulk supply.
### 2.2 Demand Side
- The overall market size of antioxidants in China reached **35.8 billion RMB** in 2024, compared to 3.44 billion RMB in 2023 (based on specific segment criteria), indicating steady industry growth.
- Demand in traditional downstream sectors such as plastics, rubber, oils, and adhesives remains solid, while applications in emerging fields such as food, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics continue to expand, providing diversified demand support for BBM-type products.
- The global primary antioxidant market size in 2024 was approximately **USD 15 billion**, with China accounting for **35%** of the global share (approx. USD 5.25 billion), driven by strong domestic demand.
### 2.3 Competitive Landscape
- The antioxidant industry has relatively low concentration, with fragmented market shares. International giants like BASF, Clariant, and AkzoNobel occupy the high-end market with their technological and scale advantages. Domestic enterprises such as Zhejiang NHU Co., Ltd. (annual production of 280,000 tons, accounting for 22% of the national total) and Jiangsu Sanfangxiang are accelerating their catch-up efforts.
- As a specific variety, BBM has a relatively concentrated quoting base, with Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials dominating the market. This monopoly-like quoting structure is unlikely to change in the short term.
---
## III. Influencing Factor Analysis
| Dimension | Specific Factors | Direction of Impact |
|------|----------|----------|
| Raw Material Costs | Fluctuations in upstream phenol and amine raw material prices | Neutral to Stable |
| Environmental Policies | Stricter policy orientation toward eco-friendly antioxidants | Long-term positive for high-end products |
| Downstream Demand | Steady growth in plastics, automotive, and construction industries | Supports demand |
| Capacity Release | Continuous expansion of domestic capacity, ample supply | Suppresses price increases |
| International Trade | Trade friction and export uncertainty | Short-term disturbance |
---
## IV. Analytical Judgment
**Core Judgment: Antioxidant BBM is expected to maintain a \"sideways consolidation\" pattern in the short term, with a very low probability of price breakthrough.**
1. **Significant Price Anchoring Effect**: 82 CNY/kg has become the widely recognized transaction benchmark in the market. Buyers and sellers have reached a tacit understanding at this price level, and there is currently no catalyst to break this equilibrium in the short term.
2. **Ample Supply Suppresses Elasticity**: Domestic antioxidant capacity continues to be released, with abundant supply in the East China production area. As a mature variety, BBM does not face supply bottlenecks.
3. **Moderate Demand Support**: Downstream application areas are steadily expanding, but no explosive growth has occurred. The demand side has limited pull on prices.
4. **Industry Trends Favor the Medium-to-Long Term**: Eco-friendly and high-performance antioxidants have become the R&D direction. Technological upgrades will drive an increase in product value-added, but the direct boost for traditional varieties like BBM will take time.
---
## V. Trend Forecast
| Time Horizon | Forecast Judgment | Confidence Level |
|-----------|----------|--------|
| **Next 1 Month (Nov-Dec)** | Price likely to remain at 82 CNY/kg, with narrow fluctuations of ±2 CNY | ★★★★☆ |
| **Q1 2027** | If raw material costs do not fluctuate significantly, prices will remain sideways; if environmental production restrictions are tightened, a slight upward move is possible (85-88 CNY/kg) | ★★★☆☆ |
| **Full Year 2027** | With industry technological upgrades and high-end transformation, if BBM iterates toward eco-friendly types, the price center is expected to shift moderately upward to the 85-90 CNY/kg range | ★★★☆☆ |
---
## VI. Strategic Recommendations
- **Buyers**: The current price is in a historical low-side plateau period. It is advisable to moderately lock in medium-to-long-term contracts to hedge against future cost increase risks.
- **Suppliers**: The profit margin at 82 CNY/kg has been compressed to a relatively thin level. Companies should accelerate product upgrades or expand into high-value-added niche markets to avoid falling into a pure price competition quagmire.
- **Investors**: Focus on the implementation pace of eco-friendly antioxidant policies and anomalies in upstream raw material prices, as these are the two key variables that could break the price stalemate for BBM.
4,4'-Butylidenebis(6-tert-butyl-m-cresol) is a white to off-white crystalline solid at room temperature, with a mild phenolic odor and low volatility; it has a melting point typically in the range of 128–132 °C. It is an aromatic organic compound classified as a sterically hindered phenolic antioxidant. Primarily used as a high-performance antioxidant, it imparts thermal and oxidative stability to polymers—especially polyolefins, styrenics, and elastomers—and is incorporated during polymer processing or compounding. Its main commercial applications are in plastics, synthetic rubber, adhesives, and lubricants, where long-term stabilization against degradation is required.
Antioxidant for rubber, dry or latex.
This chemical is included in Fine Chemicals. See more about what is 4,4''''-Butylidenebis(6-tert-Butyl-m-Cresol) and 4,4''''-Butylidenebis(6-tert-Butyl-m-Cresol) SDS information.
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