1-Amino-8-hydroxynaphthalene-3,6-disulphonic Acid

H Acid Product Market Dynamics Intelligence (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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I. Price Trends

| Time Point | Price Range (CNY/ton) | Key Events |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-October | 150,000–170,000 (some manufacturers quoted up to 250,000) | Shaoxing Sanfeng Chemical raised H acid quotes; Yandong Group announced a suspension of H acid quotes on October 17 |
| October 29 | 35,000 | Quoted by Suzhou Senfida Chemical (ex-works, tax included, Suzhou, Jiangsu) |
| November 12 | 41,000 | Quoted by Jiangsu Xinsu New Materials (ex-works, tax included, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 25 kg/drum) |

**Price Fluctuation Notes**: In mid-October, the industry’s average monitored price remained at a high level of 150,000–170,000 CNY/ton. However, quotes of 35,000–41,000 CNY/ton appeared on the SunSirs platform from late October to early November, creating a significant gap compared to the previous high levels. These quotes may reflect short-term pricing by individual traders or non-standard product specifications, showing a notable deviation from mainstream industry transaction prices. Caution is advised regarding potential discrepancies in data definitions.

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II. Supply-Side Intelligence

1. **Persistent Rigid Capacity Constraints**: China’s nominal H acid production capacity is 90,000–100,000 tons/year, while effective capacity is less than 60,000 tons/year, resulting in a long-term supply-demand gap of over 10%. The environmental assessment approval process for new capacity takes 2–3 years, leaving virtually no short-term supply elasticity.
2. **Production Halts and Sell-Off Restraint by Leading Enterprises**: Inner Mongolia Yandong Fine Chemicals (accounting for nearly one-third of national effective capacity) suspended H acid quotes starting October 17, with the resumption time undetermined. This move directly triggered a wave of price increases in the downstream dye sector.
3. **Accelerated Environmental Phase-Outs**: Regulatory scrutiny of high-risk, high-pollution processes such as nitration and sulfonation continues to tighten, leading to the permanent elimination of many non-compliant small and medium-sized production capacities and further increasing industry concentration.
4. **Advantages of Integrated Enterprises**: Leading enterprises with self-sufficient H acid capabilities, such as Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co., and Jihua Group, can almost fully convert price increases into profit increments in this round of hikes.

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III. Demand-Side Intelligence

1. **Seasonal Demand Recovery**: The traditional \"Golden September and Silver October\" peak season for textiles and apparel has driven inventory replenishment among downstream buyers. The recovery in weaving has transmitted restocking demand to the printing and dyeing sector.
2. **Export Substitution Opportunities**: Production cuts in India’s textile clusters due to extreme heat have created substitution space for Chinese dye and intermediate exports. In the first 10 months of 2026, China’s total goods trade import and export value reached 44.81 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20%, indicating robust foreign trade performance.
3. **Significant Downstream Pressure**: Printing and dyeing enterprises are squeezed from both sides—lacking bargaining power against dye manufacturers upstream and unable to fully pass on costs to downstream customers—resulting in severe compression of processing margins.

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IV. Industry Chain Linkage Dynamics

| Segment | Dynamics |
|---|---|
| Dye Enterprises | Zhejiang Longsheng raised reactive dye prices by 3,000–5,000 CNY/ton starting November 1; Yabang Co. adjusted prices twice within ten days in October, with Disperse Blue 60 quoted at 300,000 CNY/ton |
| Intermediate Linkage | Reducing agent prices rose from 25,000 CNY/ton at the start of the year to 160,000–180,000 CNY/ton (an increase of over 600%), mirroring the surge in H acid prices |
| Listed Company Performance | Longsheng’s net profit for the first three quarters was 1.65 billion CNY (+18%); Runtu’s net profit for the first three quarters was 954 million CNY (+324%); Jihua’s net profit growth in the first half exceeded 1,200% |

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V. Analytical Assessment

1. **Early Signs of High-Level Price Correction**: The appearance of quotes at 35,000–41,000 CNY/ton from late October to early November, if representing actual transaction prices, would indicate a cliff-like pullback from historical highs. However, given the fundamental industry conditions (capacity gap, Yandong’s quote suspension, and leading enterprises’ reluctance to sell), these low prices are more likely to reflect quotes from individual non-mainstream channels or short-term promotional activities. Mainstream market transaction prices are likely to remain in the range of over 100,000 CNY/ton.
2. **Short-Term Supply Bottlenecks Unresolved**: With no clear timeline for Yandong to resume quoting, combined with high environmental pressure, effective supply remains tight, limiting the potential for price declines.
3. **Integrated Leaders Hold Pricing Power**: Enterprises with an integrated \"intermediates–dyes\" layout (Longsheng, Runtu, Jihua) have fully realized profit elasticity in this cycle, and industry differentiation is expected to intensify further.
4. **Demand-Side Support Persists**: Strong foreign trade growth, seasonal restocking, and substitution demand from India provide a demand-side floor for H acid and downstream dyes.

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VI. Forecasts

| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| **Short-Term (1–2 weeks)** | Prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels. The tight supply situation will persist until Yandong resumes quoting. If the low-price quotes reflect genuine market signals, caution is needed regarding potential short-term panic selling and cascading effects |
| **Medium-Term (1–3 months)** | With intensified winter environmental production restrictions and the release of pre-Spring Festival inventory demand, H acid prices are expected to stabilize and recover. Mainstream transaction prices are projected to remain in the range of 120,000–180,000 CNY/ton |
| **Long-Term (2027)** | Due to long new capacity commissioning cycles, the supply-demand gap is difficult to close, and the H acid price center is expected to shift systematically upward. Integrated enterprises with self-sufficient capacity will continue to benefit, while small and medium-sized capacities lacking supporting facilities will accelerate their phase-out |

**Risk Warnings**: Downstream printing and dyeing demand falling short of expectations; sudden relaxation of environmental policies; leading enterprises such as Yandong resuming quotes earlier than expected; and macroeconomic downturns suppressing textile exports.