Sodium lauryl polyoxyethylene ether sulfate

AES Market Intelligence Report (July 22, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price: According to B2B Chemical Network (Shengyishe) data, the AES benchmark price on July 17, 2026, stood at RMB 9,566.67 per ton—unchanged from the beginning of the month—and remains within the mid-to-high range for the year (annual high: RMB 10,100/ton; annual low: RMB 8,540/ton).
2. Historical Volatility: The AES price center has remained stable between RMB 9,300–9,500/ton during 2025–2026. In August 2025, prices briefly declined to RMB 8,540/ton due to weakened demand but subsequently rebounded, supported by rising raw material costs and demand recovery.

II. Supply-Demand Landscape
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Capacity: China’s AES production capacity exceeded 450,000 tons in 2025, with output reaching approximately 380,000 tons. Over 60% of production is concentrated in the East China and South China regions, led by key players including Zanyu Technology and Ningbo Kingfa.
- Import Dependence: High-end grades remain reliant on imports from Japanese JSR and Korean LG Chem. In 2024, import dependency reached 42%.
2. Demand Side:
- Household & Personal Care Sector: As a core raw material for dishwashing liquids, shampoos, and other detergents, China’s AES demand totaled 732,900 tons in 2025, projected to rise to 1,092,400 tons by 2030, with market size exceeding RMB 960 million.
- Industrial Applications: Emerging demand from industrial cleaning and eco-friendly coatings is broadening AES application scopes.

III. Key Market Drivers
1. Raw Material Costs: Fluctuations in fatty alcohol and ethylene oxide prices directly impact AES production costs. Elevated crude oil prices in 2026 continue to support fatty alcohol supply.
2. Policy Impacts:
- Environmental Regulations: China’s “Dual Carbon” goals (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) are boosting demand for green detergents, highlighting AES’s superior biodegradability.
- Trade Policies: Regulatory requirements such as Saudi Arabia’s SASO energy labeling and EU REACH regulations raise market entry barriers, prompting enterprises to optimize product portfolios.
3. Regional Markets:
- Middle East: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is driving robust demand for home appliances and infrastructure development, spurring AES consumption in refrigeration and environmental appliances.
- Southeast Asia: Over 40% of imported household appliances in Vietnam and Indonesia originate from China, generating strong demand for AES as a supporting raw material.

IV. Competitive Landscape
1. Domestic Enterprises:
- Technological Upgrades: Companies such as Ningbo Kingfa and Shandong Daowen have adopted continuous bulk polymerization processes to reduce energy consumption and enhance self-sufficiency in high-end grades.
- Regional Expansion: Leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative, firms like Zanyu Technology are expanding into the Middle East and Southeast Asia—for example, establishing a surfactant production base in Indonesia.
2. International Enterprises:
- Market Dominance: Japanese JSR and Korean LG Chem collectively hold ~60% of global market share, sustaining their leadership in premium segments through technological moats.
- Localization Strategies: BASF and Dow Chemical have established R&D centers in China to develop customized AES products.

V. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short Term (1–3 months):
- Price Stability: AES prices are expected to hover around RMB 9,500/ton, reflecting a balance between raw material cost support and seasonal demand softness.
- Regional Divergence: Strong export demand from the Middle East and Southeast Asia will prioritize overseas orders, tightening domestic supply.
2. Medium-to-Long Term (1–3 years):
- Capacity Expansion: Domestic enterprises plan ~200,000 tons/year of new capacity; total national AES capacity may surpass 650,000 tons by 2028, raising risks of oversupply.
- Structural Optimization: Domestic high-end grade self-sufficiency is projected to increase to 60%, intensifying competition and pressuring industry profit margins in commodity-grade segments.

VI. Forecast & Recommendations
1. Price Forecast:
- Q3–Q4 2026: Supported by the traditional “Golden September–Silver October” demand surge, AES prices may rise modestly to ~RMB 9,800/ton.
- 2027: Should newly planned capacity come online as scheduled, prices could retreat to the RMB 9,000–9,200/ton range.
2. Strategic Recommendations for Enterprises:
- Technology-Driven Approach: Accelerate R&D in continuous bulk polymerization to cut energy consumption by >20% and strengthen cost competitiveness.
- Market Diversification: Target emerging markets—including the Middle East and Latin America—through participation in trade fairs such as the Vietnam AES Expo and Dubai Expo.
- Green Transformation: Develop bio-based AES products to meet stringent environmental standards in the EU and North America.
3. Risk Alerts:
- Raw Material Volatility: Fatty alcohol prices are sensitive to palm oil futures; monitor Southeast Asian climate conditions affecting harvest yields.
- Trade Barriers: Compliance costs may rise due to SASO certification (Middle East) and EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM); proactive establishment of regulatory compliance systems is advised.