Diethyl Oxalate

# Ethyl Oxalate Commercial Market Dynamics Intelligence (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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## I. Price Overview

| Dimension | Data |
|------|------|
| SunSirs Benchmark Price (Nov 10) | **12,333.33 CNY/ton** |
| Benchmark Price Fluctuation Over the Past Month | **Zero fluctuation, sustained sideways movement** |
| Annual Price Range | 12,250 – 12,400 CNY/ton |
| Annual Average Price | 12,332.56 CNY/ton |
| Current Price Position | Mid-range of the annual average |

**Notable Divergence in Corporate Quotations (Nov 10):**

| Company | Origin | Quotation (CNY/ton) |
|------|------|--------------|
| Shandong Zhuoyu Chemical | Shandong | 13,340 |
| Shandong Yihe Fine Chemical | Shandong | 10,000 |
| Aite (Zhejiang) Supply Chain | Hubei/Zhejiang | 12,000 |
| Shandong Hongyang Chemical | Shandong | 12,000 |
| Shandong Jiaming Chemical | Shandong | 12,000 |

**Trader Spot Quotations (Shandong Yukang Chemical, Oct 16 – Nov 4):**
- Minimum order of 1 ton: 16,000 – 17,000 CNY/ton
- Minimum order of 8 tons: 15,500 – 16,500 CNY/ton
- Packaging: 200 kg/new plastic drums; shipped from Jinan; monthly sales exceed 100 tons; regular inventory exceeds 30 tons

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## II. Supply and Demand Landscape Assessment

**Supply Side**
- **Fragmented capacity, predominantly flexible co-production:** The industry is dominated by small and medium-sized fine chemical enterprises. Most facilities operate multi-product flexible co-production lines, where a single unit can switch between producing various ester intermediates. Large-scale dedicated capacity is scarce.
- **Adequate supply, normal operating rates:** Operating rates at major domestic production enterprises remain at normal levels, with relatively ample capacity.
- **Rising environmental barriers:** Small-scale facilities failing to meet environmental standards are gradually exiting the market. Industry concentration is slowly increasing, but large-scale capacity expansion is not expected.

**Demand Side**
- **Steady baseline demand with limited growth:** Downstream demand in pharmaceuticals (intermediates for phenobarbital, azathioprine, etc.), pesticides, and dyes remains stable, with procurement driven primarily by essential needs.
- **Lack of growth drivers:** R&D of new pharmaceuticals and development of novel pesticide varieties serve as long-term demand drivers, but no clear breakthroughs are observed in the short term.
- **High price sensitivity:** The product has strong substitutability. Certain synthesis pathways can utilize alternative oxalate esters, limiting downstream acceptance of high prices.

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## III. Cost and Profit Analysis

| Element | Status |
|------|------|
| Raw material: Ethanol | Driven up in Q1 due to Middle East geopolitical conflicts; declined after Q2 |
| Raw material: Oxalic acid | Same trend as ethanol; weak cost pass-through capability |
| Waste liquid treatment | Environmental control thresholds objectively exist, increasing compliance costs |
| Cost pass-through | Weak – ample capacity + limited downstream acceptance make price increases difficult to implement |

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## IV. Qualitative Market Characteristics

**Four Key Terms: Sideways, Game Theory, Neutral, Endurance.**

- Since 2025, prices have oscillated within a narrow range of 12,000 – 13,000 CNY/ton, lacking clear drivers for upward or downward movement.
- In the second half of 2026, the market continues to move sideways at high levels. The game between supply and demand is mild, and industry sentiment remains stable.
- The market lacks speculative trading opportunities; operations are primarily based on just-in-time procurement.
- Industry prosperity has remained in a neutral state for the long term.

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## V. Analytical Judgment

1. **Short Term (1–3 months):** Prices are highly likely to remain sideways within the range of 12,000 – 13,500 CNY/ton. The SunSirs benchmark price has been locked at 12,333.33 CNY/ton for a consecutive month. Although corporate quotations show divergence (10,000 – 13,340 CNY/ton), the overall center of gravity has not changed. With no strong drivers on the raw material side and no concentrated volume increase on the downstream side, the sideways pattern is unlikely to break.

2. **Medium Term (3–6 months):** Two variables require attention: ① Whether further tightening of environmental policies accelerates the elimination of small-scale capacity and increases industry concentration; ② Whether new product launches in downstream pharmaceuticals/pesticides create a phased demand pulse. If neither undergoes substantive change, prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly within the existing range.

3. **Long-term Logic:** The ethyl oxalate sector lacks a story of explosive growth. Investment value lies in stable rigid-demand orders, flexible co-production switching capabilities, and the existing advantages of environmental compliance.

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## VI. Forecast

| Time Dimension | Price Prediction | Core Logic |
|----------|---------|---------|
| Nov – Dec 2026 | 12,000 – 13,000 CNY/ton | Sideways movement continues; no major variables |
| Q1 2027 | 12,000 – 13,500 CNY/ton | Focus on raw material costs and downstream operating rhythms |
| Full Year 2027 | 12,000 – 14,000 CNY/ton | Moderate expansion; possibility of a slow upward shift in the price center |

**Risk Warning:** If Middle East geopolitical tensions escalate again, pushing up raw material costs, or if environmental policies tighten beyond expectations causing a sudden drop in supply, prices may briefly break above the upper range. Conversely, if downstream demand remains weak, prices may test the lower bound of 12,000 CNY/ton. However, overall, this market is not about speed, but endurance.