Allyl methacrylate

I. Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. **Price Trends**
- Domestic Market: The price of allyl methacrylate (AMA) in the domestic market has shown a slight upward fluctuation over the past week. The main transaction price in the East China region rose from 18,500 RMB/ton to 18,800 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 1.62%; in the South China region, the price increased from 18,700 RMB/ton to 19,000 RMB/ton, an increase of about 1.60%.
- International Market: In Asia, the FOB Korea price ranged from $2,350 to $2,400/ton, up by $20–30/ton compared to the previous week; in Europe, the FOB Rotterdam price remained stable at €2,600–2,650/ton.
2. **Supply Situation**
- Domestic Production: The operating rate of domestic producers has remained around 75%. Some enterprises have temporarily suspended operations due to equipment maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in overall market supply. For example, a plant in Shandong plans to undergo 10 days of maintenance, expected to reduce output by approximately 200 tons.
- Imports: The volume of recently arrived shipments has declined, primarily because some international suppliers are facing tight supply conditions and prioritizing other regions, resulting in insufficient replenishment for the domestic market.
3. **Demand Situation**
- Downstream industries show divergent demand performance. The coatings sector maintains stable demand; due to stricter environmental regulations, some companies have increased their usage of allyl methacrylate as a coating additive, leading to a slight growth in demand.
- The adhesives sector has seen increased order volumes driven by seasonal factors, boosting demand for allyl methacrylate.
- The plastic modification industry exhibits relatively stable demand with no significant fluctuations.
4. **Inventory Situation**
- Inventory levels among major domestic traders are at a medium-to-low position, dropping by approximately 8% compared to the previous week. Some traders, anticipating higher future prices, are holding back sales and reducing shipment volumes.
- Producer inventories are also at low levels, with an average inventory duration of 10–12 days.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. **Reasons for Price Increase**
- On the supply side, the reduced operating rates of domestic enterprises and decreased import arrivals have led to a contraction in market supply, which is the primary driver of the price increase.
- On the demand side, growing demand from the coatings and adhesives industries has provided support for prices.
2. **Market Supply-Demand Balance**
- The market is currently in a tight balance between supply and demand. The combination of reduced supply and increased demand creates upward momentum for prices. However, since overall inventory levels are not critically low, the magnitude of the price increase remains limited.
3. **Weight Analysis of Influencing Factors**
- Supply factors have the largest impact on price, accounting for approximately 60%, as the reduction in supply directly alters the market’s supply-demand dynamics.
- Demand factors account for about 30%, providing momentum for price increases but not acting as the dominant driver.
- Other factors, such as inventory levels and market sentiment, account for approximately 10%.

III. Forecast
1. **Short-Term (1–2 Weeks)**
- Prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend. The East China region price may exceed 19,000 RMB/ton, while the South China region price could reach around 19,200 RMB/ton. This is mainly due to the short-term persistence of supply shortages and continued downstream demand support.
2. **Medium-Term (1–2 Months)**
- If domestic enterprises resume normal production after maintenance ends and import supplies increase, market supply will recover, potentially narrowing the price increase or triggering a correction. Prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 18,500–19,000 RMB/ton.
3. **Long-Term (3–6 Months)**
- Price trends will depend on downstream demand developments and the timing of new capacity launches. If downstream demand continues to grow and new capacity delays materialize, prices are likely to remain at elevated levels. Conversely, if demand falls short of expectations or new capacity is brought online simultaneously, prices may face downward pressure.