Allyl methacrylate

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. **Price Trends**
- **Domestic Market**: The price of allyl 4-methylmethacrylate (AMMA) in the domestic market has recently shown a slight upward fluctuation. The mainstream price in the East China region is RMB 28,000–30,000 per metric ton, an increase of approximately RMB 300–500 compared to the previous week. In the South China region, prices range from RMB 28,500–30,500 per metric ton, with a similar increase to that in East China.
- **International Market**: Prices in the Asian region have also risen. The FOB Korea price is USD 3,800–4,000 per metric ton, up by approximately USD 100–200 from the previous period. In the European market, the CIF price is EUR 4,200–4,500 per metric ton, reflecting a slight increase of EUR 50–100.

2. **Supply Situation**
- **Domestic Production**: The overall operating rate of domestic producers remains stable at around 75%–80%. Some enterprises are expected to temporarily reduce their operating rates to 60%–65% over the next two weeks due to scheduled equipment maintenance, affecting approximately 15% of the total domestic production capacity.
- **Imports**: Recent import volumes have decreased, primarily due to maintenance shutdowns at some overseas production facilities, leading to a reduction in supply. Import volumes are projected to decline by 20%–25% compared to the previous month over the next month.

3. **Demand Situation**
- **Downstream Industry Demand**: Demand across downstream industries shows differentiation. The coatings industry has seen stable growth in demand, driven by a recovery in the real estate sector and increased demand for industrial coatings, resulting in a 10%–15% increase in AMMA consumption compared to the previous month.
- **Adhesives Industry**: Demand in the adhesives industry remains stable. However, higher quality requirements for AMMA in high-end adhesives have led some enterprises to increase procurement volumes to meet product upgrade needs.
- **Plastic Modification Industry**: Demand in the plastic modification industry has slightly decreased. Seasonal factors have caused some plastic product production to enter an off-season, reducing AMMA procurement by approximately 8%–10%.

4. **Inventory Situation**
- **Producer Inventory**: Domestic producer inventory levels are at a moderate level, with an average inventory cycle of 15–20 days. Some enterprises have slightly increased inventory due to expectations of price increases, but overall inventory pressure remains manageable.
- **Trader Inventory**: Trader inventory levels have decreased. Recent market purchasing enthusiasm has been high, accelerating the turnover rate for traders. Current inventory levels are down by approximately 15% compared to the previous month.

Analysis and Judgment

1. **Reasons for Price Increases**
- **Supply Side**: Although domestic operating rates have fluctuated, they remain generally stable. However, the reduction in import volumes has led to a decrease in overall market supply, providing support for prices.
- **Demand Side**: Growing demand in the coatings and adhesives industries, particularly the significant increase in the coatings sector, has boosted overall market demand for AMMA, driving prices higher.

2. **Market Supply-Demand Balance**
- The market is currently in a relatively balanced but slightly tight state. Supply has contracted somewhat due to reduced imports and maintenance schedules at some domestic enterprises. On the demand side, growth in the coatings and adhesives sectors has partially offset the decline in the plastic modification sector, resulting in an overall upward trend in demand.

Forecast

1. **Price Trend Forecast**
- **Short-Term (Next 1–2 Weeks)**: Affected by the decline in operating rates at some domestic enterprises and the continued reduction in import volumes, the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease. Prices are expected to continue rising slightly. The domestic market is projected to see an increase of RMB 200–500 per metric ton. International prices are also expected to rise by USD 50–100 per metric ton in Asia and EUR 30–80 per metric ton in Europe.
- **Medium-Term (Next 1–2 Months)**: As overseas production facilities resume operations after maintenance, import volumes are expected to gradually recover. Simultaneously, domestic operating rates will likely rise as maintenance concludes, increasing market supply. If downstream demand does not maintain strong growth, prices may experience a correction, though the magnitude is expected to be limited. Domestic prices are projected to stabilize at RMB 27,500–29,500 per metric ton. International prices are expected to stabilize at USD 3,700–3,900 per metric ton in Asia and EUR 4,100–4,400 per metric ton in Europe.

2. **Supply-Demand Situation Forecast**
- **Supply**: Over the next two months, domestic operating rates are expected to gradually recover to 80%–85%. Import volumes will also increase as overseas facilities restart, leading to a gradual rise in total market supply.
- **Demand**: Demand in the coatings industry is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. The adhesives industry will maintain stable demand. Demand in the plastic modification industry may recover as the peak season approaches. Overall, demand will continue to grow, but the growth rate is likely to be lower than the increase in supply, leading to a gradual easing of the supply-demand relationship.