methyl acetate (pure grade)

Market Intelligence on Acetic Acid Methyl Ester (Acetate Methyl Ester)

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: Mainstream transaction prices range from 7,200 to 7,500 CNY/ton, up by approximately 200 CNY/ton week-on-week, representing a 2.8% increase.
- South China: Mainstream transaction prices range from 7,300 to 7,600 CNY/ton, up by approximately 150 CNY/ton week-on-week, representing a 2.1% increase.
- North China: Mainstream transaction prices range from 7,100 to 7,400 CNY/ton, up by approximately 100 CNY/ton week-on-week, representing a 1.4% increase.
2. International Market:
- Southeast Asia: FOB prices range from 950 to 980 USD/ton, up by approximately 20 USD/ton week-on-week, representing a 2.1% increase.
- Europe and Americas: FOB prices range from 1,200 to 1,250 USD/ton, up by approximately 30 USD/ton week-on-week, representing a 2.5% increase.

II. Supply and Demand Situation
1. Supply Side:
- Operating rates of major domestic production enterprises remain stable at 75%-80%, compared to the previous week.
- Some enterprises have suspended production for maintenance due to environmental inspections, leading to tight local supply.
- Import volumes have slightly increased compared to the previous week, with limited growth, primarily from Southeast Asia.
2. Demand Side:
- Demand from downstream coatings and ink industries remains stable, with procurement volumes increasing by approximately 5% week-on-week.
- Demand in the adhesive industry has shown recovery, with procurement volumes increasing by approximately 8% week-on-week.
- Export demand continues to grow, with primary exports to Southeast Asian and European/American markets.

III. Cost Side
1. Raw Material: Acetic Acid
- Domestic acetic acid market prices range from 3,200 to 3,500 CNY/ton, up by approximately 100 CNY/ton week-on-week, representing a 3.0% increase.
- Acetic acid supply is tight, with some enterprises suspending production for maintenance, driving price increases.
2. Raw Material: Methanol
- Domestic methanol market prices range from 2,400 to 2,600 CNY/ton, up by approximately 50 CNY/ton week-on-week, representing a 2.0% increase.
- Methanol supply is sufficient, but increased demand supports price rises.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Trends
1. Environmental Policies:
- Domestic environmental inspections continue, with some enterprises suspending production for maintenance due to non-compliance, affecting supply.
2. Industry News:
- A major acetic acid methyl ester production enterprise plans to expand capacity, with production expected to start next year, potentially increasing long-term supply.
- The downstream coatings industry has launched new products, which are expected to increase demand for acetic acid methyl ester.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short Term:
- Supply is tight in local areas due to environmental inspections, supporting price increases.
- Demand from downstream industries remains stable, and growing export demand pushes prices up.
- Rising prices of raw materials acetic acid and methanol provide strong cost support.
- Acetic acid methyl ester prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, with an increase of 100-200 CNY/ton.
2. Medium Term:
- As environmental inspections conclude, some suspended enterprises will resume production, potentially increasing supply.
- Downstream industry demand remains stable, and continuously growing export demand supports prices.
- Raw material prices are expected to remain at high levels, providing strong cost support.
- Acetic acid methyl ester prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, with a volatility range of 200-300 CNY/ton.
3. Long Term:
- The implementation of capacity expansion plans by a major enterprise will likely increase long-term supply, exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Downstream industry demand is expected to continue growing, especially with the launch of new products in the coatings industry, supporting prices.
- Raw material prices are expected to remain at high levels, providing strong cost support.
- Acetic acid methyl ester prices are expected to remain at high levels in the long term, but with limited upside potential, and a volatility range of 300-500 CNY/ton.

VI. Forecasts
1. Price Forecast:
- Short term (1 month): Prices in the range of 7,400-7,700 CNY/ton.
- Medium term (3-6 months): Prices in the range of 7,300-7,800 CNY/ton.
- Long term (6-12 months): Prices in the range of 7,200-7,900 CNY/ton.
2. Supply and Demand Forecast:
- Short term: Tight supply with stable demand growth.
- Medium term: Gradual supply increase with stable demand.
- Long term: Increased supply with continuously growing demand.
3. Risk Factors:
- Changes in environmental policies affecting supply.
- Significant fluctuations in raw material prices affecting costs.
- Changes in downstream industry demand affecting overall demand.