Cera de parafina

Paraffin Wax Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- The price of 58# semi-refined paraffin wax in major regions ranges from 8,500 to 8,800 CNY/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 2%-3%. Some refineries have slightly raised their quoted prices due to low inventory levels.
- The price of fully refined paraffin wax (60#) has surpassed 9,000 CNY/ton. High-end quotes in the East China region have reached 9,200 CNY/ton, marking a new year-to-date high.
- Prices for cracked paraffin wax (low melting point) have increased by 5% driven by demand, currently quoted at 7,800-8,000 CNY/ton.

2. International Market:
- FOB prices in Southeast Asia have risen to USD 1,250-1,300/ton, an 8% increase compared to the previous month, primarily due to reduced Chinese exports and tight supply in the Middle East.
- CIF prices in Europe remain stable at USD 1,350-1,400/ton, but procurement volumes are suppressed on the demand side due to high energy costs.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic refinery operating rates are maintained at around 75%. Sinopec-affiliated refineries have reduced supply by approximately 10% due to maintenance schedules.
- Import volumes have decreased by 15% month-on-month, mainly influenced by international price inversion and exchange rate fluctuations.
- Inventory levels: Major port inventories have dropped to 120,000 tons, a 23% decrease year-on-year, representing a low level for the past three years.

2. Demand Side:
- Candle Industry: Demand is being released during the traditional peak season, with procurement volumes from small and medium-sized enterprises increasing by 20% month-on-month.
- Packaging Materials: Demand for food-grade paraffin wax remains stable, but growth has slowed to 5% due to competition from plastic substitutes.
- Rubber Additives: The recovery in operating rates in the tire industry has driven a 12% increase in demand for high-melting-point paraffin wax.
- Export Markets: Order volumes in Southeast Asia have increased by 30% year-on-year, primarily due to local supply shortages.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Costs:
- Crude oil prices are fluctuating between USD 80-85/barrel, providing strong support for paraffin wax costs.
- The price of Fischer-Tropsch wax (a substitute) has risen to 9,500 CNY/ton, narrowing the price gap with petroleum-based paraffin wax. Consequently, some high-end demand has shifted to Fischer-Tropsch wax.

2. Refinery Profits:
- The theoretical profit margin has compressed to 300-500 CNY/ton, a 15% decrease month-on-month, as raw material costs are rising faster than product prices.

IV. Relevant Policies and Events
1. Domestic environmental protection policies have become stricter, leading to production halts and rectifications for some small refineries, strengthening expectations of supply-side contraction.
2. The preliminary ruling of India's anti-dumping investigation on imported paraffin wax has been announced. Chinese export companies face tariffs of 10%-15%, which will temporarily affect the flow of goods in the Southeast Asian market.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term Driving Factors:
- Supply Side: Refinery maintenance and low inventory levels support prices, but import replenishment may alleviate the tight situation.
- Demand Side: The overlap of export orders and traditional peak season demand forms short-term upward momentum for prices.
- Cost Side: High-level operation of crude oil prices continues to provide cost support.

2. Risk Points:
- India's anti-dumping policy may lead to price differentiation in the Southeast Asian market.
- Environmental production restrictions in the autumn and winter seasons may further compress supply.
- The expansion of Fischer-Tropsch wax production capacity may have a substitution effect on the petroleum-based paraffin wax market.

VI. Forecast
1. Price Trends:
- Domestic Market: The price of 58# semi-refined paraffin wax may fluctuate in the range of 8,600-8,900 CNY/ton, while fully refined paraffin wax is expected to break through 9,300 CNY/ton.
- International Market: FOB prices in Southeast Asia may rise to USD 1,350/ton, while prices in the European market face pressure due to weak demand.

2. Supply and Demand Outlook:
- In October, domestic refinery operating rates may recover to 80%. However, inventory rebuilding takes time, so the tight supply situation is expected to continue until November.
- Export Markets: Demand in Southeast Asia remains robust, but India's tariff policy may cause some orders to shift to the Middle East.

3. Strategic Recommendations:
- Traders: It is advisable to appropriately increase inventory of cracked paraffin wax to mitigate the risk of price fluctuations in high-melting-point paraffin wax.
- Downstream Enterprises: It is recommended to sign long-term agreements to lock in costs or increase the proportion of Fischer-Tropsch wax substitutes.