1,4-Cyclohexanedimethanol

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence

1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: The mainstream price of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid (CHDC) has recently shown a narrow fluctuation pattern. Prices in the East China region are maintained in the range of 18,000 to 19,000 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 18,200 to 19,200 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation amplitude within ±200 yuan/ton.
- International Market: In Asia, the FOB Korea price is $2,500 to $2,600/ton, and the CFR China price is $2,550 to $2,650/ton, with relatively stable prices and small fluctuations. In the European and American markets, prices in the US are $3,200 to $3,300/ton, and prices in Europe are €3,100 to €3,200/ton. Prices have seen minor adjustments due to local demand and logistics factors.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic production enterprises have maintained stable operating rates, around 75% to 80%. Some enterprises are conducting planned equipment maintenance, but this has not significantly impacted overall supply. Regarding new capacity, there are no major new installations.
- Internationally, production in major areas such as the US and South Korea is normal, with stable supply volumes. However, some enterprises have faced production restrictions due to raw material supply issues, but this has not significantly impacted the global supply landscape.

3. Demand Situation
- Downstream industry demand varies. The polyester industry, as the main consumer of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid, has seen an increase in operating rates recently, leading to increased demand for 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid. Especially in the production of high-end polyester products, the demand for high-quality 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid remains stable.
- Demand in industries such as coatings and adhesives is relatively stable, with less impact from seasonal factors. However, some small enterprises have reduced their purchase volumes of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid due to cost pressures.

4. Cost Factors
- The price of the main raw material, cyclohexane, has remained relatively stable recently. The minor fluctuations in oil prices have had some impact on cyclohexane costs, but the transmission to the cost of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid is not significant.
- Energy costs, including natural gas and electricity, are stable, having minimal impact on production costs.

5. Trade Dynamics
- In domestic trade, market transaction activity is moderate, with traders purchasing according to demand, and inventory levels maintained within reasonable ranges. Some traders have introduced promotional activities to boost sales, but the effect has been limited.
- In international trade, China's import volume remains stable, with main sources from South Korea and the US. Export volumes have fluctuated due to international market demand and trade policies, but overall changes are not significant.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Factors Contributing to Price Stability: On the supply side, domestic enterprises' operating rates are stable, and international supply has not seen major fluctuations, resulting in adequate overall supply. On the demand side, although there is increased demand from the polyester industry, demand from coatings and adhesives industries is stable, and some small enterprises have reduced their purchases, leading to limited overall demand growth. In terms of costs, raw material and energy prices are stable, providing little support for price increases. These factors collectively contribute to the recent narrow fluctuation and relative stability of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid prices.

2. Potential Risks: Uncertainties in the international raw material market, such as significant fluctuations in oil prices, could affect cyclohexane prices and subsequently impact the cost of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid, bringing upward or downward pressure on prices. Additionally, changes in international trade policies, such as tariff adjustments and trade barriers, could affect import and export trade, thereby impacting domestic supply and demand balance and price trends.

Forecast

1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): It is expected that the price of 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid will continue to show narrow fluctuations. Domestic market prices will be between 17,800 and 19,200 yuan/ton, and international market prices in Asia will be between $2,480 and $2,620/ton for FOB Korea, and between $2,530 and $2,670/ton for CFR China. Market supply and demand dynamics remain largely unchanged, with prices supported by costs and demand, making significant price movements unlikely.

2. Medium-term (1-3 months): If the operating rate of the polyester industry continues to rise, further increasing the demand for 1,4-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid, while supply remains unchanged, there may be a slight increase in prices, with domestic market prices potentially rising to 19,000 to 20,000 yuan/ton, and international prices adjusting accordingly. Conversely, if demand growth falls short of expectations, or if supply increases due to enterprise expansion, prices may face downward pressure.

3. Long-term (3-6 months): Attention should be paid to international raw material market dynamics and international trade policy trends. If oil prices rise significantly, driving up costs, or if international trade policies tighten, affecting imports and exports, prices may experience more substantial fluctuations. If the market environment remains stable, prices will fluctuate within a reasonable range, with overall trends depending on long-term changes in supply and demand.