Hexylene Glycol

Recent Commodity Market Dynamics

1. Price Trends
- Over the past week, the domestic market price of 2-methyl-2,4-pentanediol (MDO) exhibited a narrow-range fluctuation. The mainstream transaction price ranged between 18,000 and 19,500 CNY/ton, with a weekly variation of within ±2%.
- In the international market, prices in the Asia-Pacific region remained relatively stable, with FOB Korea prices ranging from 2,400 to 2,550 USD/ton. European market prices saw a slight increase, with FOB Rotterdam prices ranging from 2,600 to 2,750 USD/ton, representing a rise of approximately 1.5%.

2. Supply Situation
- The operating rate of domestic production enterprises remained around 75% to 80%. Although some enterprises experienced brief shutdowns due to equipment maintenance, the overall supply volume did not decrease significantly.
- On the import side, the volume of arriving cargo remained stable, with port inventory maintained at a moderate level of approximately 3,000 to 3,500 tons.

3. Demand Situation
- Demand from downstream industries such as coatings and inks remained stable. Procurement volumes of 2-methyl-2,4-pentanediol did not show significant increases or decreases, with purchases primarily made on an as-needed basis.
- Some emerging application areas, such as electronic chemicals, have specific demands for 2-methyl-2,4-pentanediol due to higher quality requirements. However, current procurement volumes in these sectors remain relatively small.

4. Cost Factors
- Prices for the main raw material, propylene oxide, have shown minimal fluctuation recently, providing relatively stable cost support.
- Energy costs, including coal and natural gas, have decreased slightly, alleviating cost pressure on production enterprises.

Analysis and Judgment

1. Reasons for Price Fluctuations
- The narrow-range fluctuation in domestic market prices is primarily influenced by supply-demand balance. Although there were enterprise inspections on the supply side, overall supply remained stable. On the demand side, procurement was conducted as needed, resulting in a lack of significant drivers for major price increases or decreases.
- The price increase in the European international market is mainly attributed to production cuts by some local manufacturers, where reduced supply pushed prices up. Prices in the Asia-Pacific region remained stable due to a basic balance between supply and demand.

2. Impact of Supply-Demand Relationship
- The current supply-demand relationship is relatively stable, with supply slightly exceeding demand, but the gap is not large. This makes it difficult for prices to experience significant fluctuations.
- Demand from downstream industries remains stable, and demand growth in emerging application areas is slow, providing limited pull on overall market demand.

3. Role of Cost Factors
- The stability of raw material propylene oxide prices and the decline in energy costs have reduced the cost pressure on production enterprises, thereby limiting the room for price increases to some extent.

Forecasts

1. Short-term Forecast (1-2 Weeks)
- Domestic market prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range, with mainstream transaction prices projected to be between 17,800 and 19,700 CNY/ton.
- International market prices in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to remain stable. European market prices may continue to rise slightly due to ongoing supply tightness, with FOB Rotterdam prices potentially reaching 2,650 to 2,800 USD/ton.

2. Medium-term Forecast (1-3 Months)
- If downstream industries such as coatings and inks enter their traditional peak season, demand is expected to increase, potentially driving a slight rise in domestic market prices, with an estimated increase of 3% to 5%.
- In the international market, as European production enterprises resume operations and supply increases, prices may gradually fall back to a reasonable range. Asia-Pacific prices, influenced by the domestic market, may also experience some volatility.

3. Long-term Forecast (3-6 Months)
- In the long term, with the continuous expansion of emerging application areas, demand for 2-methyl-2,4-pentanediol is expected to gradually increase. The market supply-demand relationship may shift towards a state of supply shortage, thereby pushing prices up.
- However, it is necessary to monitor the price trends of the raw material propylene oxide and changes in energy costs. Significant increases in raw material prices or rising energy costs will provide support for product prices and may even drive them higher.