Diisopropanolamine

# Recent Commodity Market Dynamics, Intelligence, and Forecast for Diisopropanolamine (DIPA)

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## I. Price Trend Intelligence (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

| Time Point | Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | Change vs. Previous Period |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | 17,250.00 | +0.49% (vs. 17,166.67 at the start of the month) |
| Oct 14 – Oct 30 | 17,250.00 | Stable sideways movement |
| Oct 29 | 17,250.00 | +0.49% (vs. Oct 1) |
| Nov 1 – Nov 4 | 17,250.00 | Sustained at high levels |
| Nov 5 – Nov 12 | 17,166.67 | -0.48% (vs. start of the month) |

**Enterprise Quotation Reference (Oct 20)**:
- Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. (85% purity): 17,500 CNY/ton
- Shandong Zhihengda Import & Export Co., Ltd. (≥98.0% purity): Quotation slightly above the benchmark

**Interval Statistics**:
- Average price over the last three months: 17,289.38 CNY/ton
- Highest price over the last three months: 17,500.00 CNY/ton
- Lowest price over the last three months: 17,166.67 CNY/ton

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## II. Market Dynamic Characteristics Assessment

1. **Price Pattern: Sideways Movement at High Levels Followed by a Slight Decline**
In mid-to-late October, the DIPA benchmark price remained firmly anchored at 17,250 CNY/ton, showing no movement for over two weeks, presenting a typical \"high-level sideways\" pattern. Entering November, the price fell from 17,250 CNY/ton to 17,166.67 CNY/ton, a decline of only 0.48%, constituting a mild correction rather than a trend-based drop. This trajectory aligns highly with the industry report's judgment that \"the market will continue to maintain a high-level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with mild gaming between supply and demand sides.\"

2. **Supply-Demand Structure: Balanced but Slightly Tight, Lacking Directional Drivers**
- **Supply Side:** Domestic production capacity is relatively concentrated. Major producers maintain normal operating rates, with limited new capacity additions; no oversupply or shortage has emerged. The industry is primarily based on intermittent fine synthesis, where purification processes and product stability constitute core barriers to entry.
- **Demand Side:** Downstream demand for desulfurization and decarbonization of natural gas and refinery gas remains rigid. Procurement for surfactants and pharmaceutical intermediates is driven mainly by essential needs. Coal chemical tail gas treatment has brought some incremental demand, but no significant volume increase has been observed overall.
- **Raw Material Side:** After upstream propylene oxide and liquid ammonia costs were pushed up by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts in Q1, they declined in Q2. Current raw material prices have stabilized; cost transmission is smooth but limited in scope.

3. **Market Sentiment: Industry Participants Maintain Steadiness, Speculative Trading is Scarce**
Quotation data from October to November shows that enterprise quotes closely align with the benchmark price, with the market lacking significant volatility and speculative trading opportunities. Industry participants operate primarily based on demand-based procurement, with strong wait-and-see sentiment.

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## III. Analytical Judgments

| Dimension | Judgment |
|---|---|
| Short-term Trend | **Oscillating slightly weak, operating within the 17,100–17,300 CNY/ton range** |
| Medium-term Trend | **High-level sideways movement continues; a breakout requires clear signals from the demand side** |
| Industry Prosperity | **Neutral to strong; substantive changes still require catalysts** |
| Risk Points | Further fluctuations in raw materials (propylene oxide/liquid ammonia); stricter environmental policies phasing out small-capacity production |

**Core Logic:** The DIPA industry has entered its maturity phase. Synthesis processes are mature, and the competitive landscape is stable. Leading enterprises secure the majority of the market share through product quality and long-term supply chain lock-ins. Current prices are at the lower end of the three-month range (17,166.67 CNY/ton is close to the three-month low), leaving limited room for downward movement. However, lacking a surge in downstream demand or strong raw material drivers, upward breakout momentum is also insufficient.

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## IV. Forecast Outlook

1. **Next 1 Month (Mid-November – Mid-December):** The DIPA benchmark price is expected to oscillate narrowly within the 17,100–17,300 CNY/ton range. The winter natural gas supply guarantee season may bring a slight increase in desulfurization demand, but it is unlikely to form a trend-based pull. If there are no major fluctuations in the raw material sector, prices will likely remain at current levels.

2. **Next Quarter (Until Q1 2027):** Focus on two variables: first, structural demand increments from the replacement of additives in aging oil and gas facilities; second, the elimination effect of small-capacity production due to continuously tightening environmental controls. If supply-side optimization further improves, the price center may shift slightly upward to 17,300–17,500 CNY/ton. Conversely, if demand remains dull, the current sideways pattern will persist.

3. **Medium-to-Long Term (Full Year 2027):** Industry drivers are shifting from capacity expansion to customized product improvements (low-volatility, high-anti-degradation modified DIPA). Enterprises with technological upgrade capabilities will gain a premium space. Overall industry growth will remain stable, with few opportunities for explosive growth, but prosperity is expected to remain neutral to strong.