Diisopropanolamine

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence1. **Price Trends** - Domestic Market: Recently, the price of Diisopropanolamine (DIPA) has shown a stable trend with a slight increase. The mainstream transaction price in the East China region is 12,500 - 13,000 RMB/ton, up by approximately 200 - 300 RMB/ton compared to last week; the price in the South China region is 12,800 - 13,200 RMB/ton, with an increase of about 250 - 350 RMB/ton. - International Market: In the Asian region, the FOB China main port price is 1,750 - 1,850 USD/ton, up by 30 - 50 USD/ton compared to the previous period; in the European market, the CIF Rotterdam port price is 1,900 - 2,000 EUR/ton, with an increase of 20 - 30 EUR/ton.2. **Supply Situation** - Domestic production: The operating rate of domestic production enterprises is maintained at around 75% - 80%. Some enterprises have seen a slight decrease in output due to equipment maintenance plans. For example, a certain enterprise in Shandong plans to conduct equipment maintenance for 10 days next week, which is expected to reduce output by approximately 500 tons. - Imports: The number of arriving ship cargoes has decreased recently, mainly due to delays in international logistics transportation. It is expected that the import volume this month will decrease by 10% - 15% compared to last month.3. **Demand Situation** - Downstream industry demand shows differentiation. Demand for DIPA in the surfactant industry is steadily increasing. With the arrival of the peak production season for summer cleaning products, some enterprises have increased their procurement volume, providing certain support to prices. - Demand in the gas purification field is stable. Procurement volume of DIPA by industries such as oil and natural gas has not changed significantly, with procurement mainly based on actual needs. - Demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry has slightly increased. Some new drug R&D projects have increased their demand for DIPA, but the overall proportion remains relatively small.4. **Cost Aspects** - The price of the main raw material, propylene oxide, has continued to rise recently. Currently, the price of propylene oxide in the East China region is 10,500 - 11,000 RMB/ton, up by 800 - 1,000 RMB/ton compared to last month. The rise in raw material prices has increased the production cost of DIPA, driving up DIPA prices. - In terms of energy costs, prices of energy sources such as coal and natural gas have fluctuated slightly, having a limited impact on DIPA production costs.Analysis and Judgment1. **Reasons for Price Increase** - On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic enterprises has slightly decreased, and import volumes have reduced, tightening the overall market supply and providing support to prices. - On the demand side, the growth in demand from the surfactant industry and the slight increase in demand from the pharmaceutical intermediate industry have driven overall market demand. The tightening supply-demand relationship has prompted price increases. - On the cost side, the rise in the price of the main raw material, propylene oxide, has a significant cost-push effect. To ensure profit margins, production enterprises have raised DIPA prices.2. **Market Contradictions** - Although there is some growth in current demand, demand in the gas purification field remains stable, and the overall demand growth is limited. Meanwhile, the supply side is affected by maintenance and reduced imports, resulting in a relatively large contraction in supply. The market supply-demand balance is in a delicate state. - Fluctuations in raw material prices have a significant impact on DIPA prices. If raw material prices continue to rise, DIPA prices may further increase, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, which may suppress demand growth.Forecast1. **Short-term (1 - 2 weeks)** - Price: It is expected that DIPA prices will continue to maintain a stable and rising trend. The price in the East China region is expected to break through 13,000 RMB/ton, and the price in the South China region may reach 13,200 - 13,500 RMB/ton. International market prices will also follow the domestic market increase, with the FOB China main port price in the Asian region potentially rising to 1,850 - 1,900 USD/ton. - Supply: The operating rate of domestic enterprises is expected to gradually recover after maintenance ends, but the arrival time of imported ship cargoes remains uncertain, and the overall market supply remains tight. - Demand: Demand in the surfactant industry will continue to be strong, demand in the gas purification field will remain stable, and demand growth in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry will be limited. Overall demand will still provide support to prices.2. **Medium-term (1 - 2 months)** - Price: If the price of raw material propylene oxide continues to remain at high levels, DIPA prices may remain at a high level. However, as downstream acceptance of high prices decreases, the magnitude of price increases will gradually narrow. If raw material prices fall, DIPA prices may also adjust accordingly. - Supply: Domestic enterprise production will return to normal, and import volumes are expected to gradually increase, alleviating the tight market supply situation. - Demand: After the peak production season for summer cleaning products, demand for DIPA in the surfactant industry may decrease. Demand in the gas purification field will remain largely unchanged, and overall demand growth momentum will be insufficient.