N-methyl-N-phenylguanidine

1. **Price Trends**
- Recent nitric acid market prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend. The average ex-factory price of 98% concentration nitric acid in major domestic regions has increased by approximately 3% to 5% compared to the previous week, with some regions seeing an increase of up to 8%.
- Price disparities across different regions have widened. The ex-factory price in the East China region is relatively high, ranging from 2,200 to 2,300 yuan per ton; in the North China region, it ranges from 2,000 to 2,100 yuan per ton; and in the South China region, it ranges from 2,150 to 2,250 yuan per ton.

2. **Supply Situation**
- Some nitric acid production enterprises have recently scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to a decrease in market supply. For example, a large-scale nitric acid production enterprise in Shandong is undergoing maintenance due to equipment failure, with an estimated duration of 10 to 15 days, affecting daily production by approximately 500 tons.
- The price of the raw material liquid ammonia is running at high levels, increasing cost pressure for nitric acid production enterprises. Some enterprises have reduced their production load to control costs, further decreasing market supply.

3. **Demand Situation**
- The operating rates of downstream industries such as aniline and nitrobenzene have increased, boosting demand for nitric acid. The operating rate of the aniline industry has risen from 70% last week to around 75%, while the operating rate of the nitrobenzene industry has increased from 65% to 70%, driving up nitric acid consumption.
- Demand for nitric acid downstream products, such as ammonium nitrate calcium, in the agricultural sector is at its peak, indirectly boosting nitric acid demand.

4. **Inventory Situation**
- Inventory levels at nitric acid production enterprises are generally low, with some enterprises holding only enough inventory to sustain 3 to 5 days of production and sales. Traders' inventories are also relatively low, and their willingness to restock is strong.

Analysis and Judgment
1. **Supply Side**: Production load reductions due to enterprise maintenance and cost pressure have led to a sustained tight market supply. It is difficult for supply to increase significantly in the short term, providing strong support for nitric acid prices.
2. **Demand Side**: Increased operating rates in downstream industries and peak-season demand in the agricultural sector have led to a growing trend in nitric acid demand, with a notable pull effect from the demand side.
3. **Cost Side**: High prices for the raw material liquid ammonia keep production costs for nitric acid enterprises at elevated levels. Cost-push factors will also help maintain nitric acid prices at high levels.

Forecast
1. **Short-term (1 - 2 weeks)**: Under the dual effects of tight supply and growing demand, nitric acid prices are expected to continue rising, with an estimated increase of 2% to 5%.
2. **Medium-term (1 - 2 months)**: If downstream industry operating rates remain high and agricultural demand continues to be robust, nitric acid prices will continue to rise, although the rate of increase may slow due to market acceptance of high prices. If some maintenance enterprises resume production and supply increases, the price increase may be somewhat suppressed.
3. **Long-term (2 - 3 months)**: As the agricultural peak season ends, nitric acid demand may decline. Meanwhile, if the price of the raw material liquid ammonia falls, reducing production costs for nitric acid enterprises, prices may see a certain degree of correction. However, if new changes occur on the supply side, such as more enterprise maintenance or environmental policies affecting production, the extent of the price correction may be limited.