Dioctyl adipate

Adipic Acid Di-n-octyl Ester (DOA) Market Intelligence Report (July 2026)

I. Market Price Dynamics
1. Latest Quotations
- As of July 7, 2026, the Business Network (Shengyishe) benchmark price indicates a market reference price of RMB 8,000 per metric ton for adipic acid di-n-octyl ester (DOA) (premium grade, purity ≥99%), delivered in Zibo City, Shandong Province.
- Historical price comparison: The average ex-factory price in 2024 was approximately RMB 9,800 per metric ton. In 2025, prices rose modestly by 3.2% due to raw material cost volatility; the current price represents an ~18.4% decline compared to 2024, reflecting adjustment pressures stemming from supply-demand rebalancing.

2. Regional Price Differentials
- In the East China region (e.g., Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces), some manufacturers maintain relatively high listed prices; however, actual transaction prices are 5–8% lower than those in Shandong due to logistics cost variations.
- In South China, limited import supplementation results in pricing broadly aligned with East China, though downstream buyers exhibit stronger bargaining power.

II. Supply-Demand Fundamentals Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Increased Production Concentration: Shandong Langhui (65,000 tons/year) and Jiangsu Jiafeng (58,000 tons/year) collectively account for nearly 70% of national DOA capacity. Leading enterprises have enhanced cost advantages through technological upgrades—such as continuous esterification processes—reducing unit energy consumption by over 12%.
- New Capacity Ramp-up: China’s total DOA output in 2025 is projected at 203,000 tons, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase. However, actual operating rates were affected by volatility in adipic acid prices; several production units temporarily suspended operations in June 2026 due to cost pressure.

2. Demand Side
- Downstream Application Structure:
- PVC soft products (e.g., refrigerator sealing strips, automotive interior components): 76.4%;
- Medical applications (e.g., disposable IV tubing, blood bags): 9.2%;
- Others (coatings, adhesives, etc.): remainder.
- Apparent domestic consumption in 2025 is forecast to exceed 198,000 tons, up 8.1% year-on-year. Nevertheless, high-end segments (e.g., medical-grade DOA) still rely significantly on imports.
- Export Growth: 2025 export volume is expected to reach ~45,000 tons, growing >10% year-on-year, primarily destined for emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and India. However, rising trade barrier risks—including anti-dumping investigations—are increasingly evident.

III. Raw Material Market Impact
1. Adipic Acid Price Trend
- As of July 3, 2026, the benchmark price for adipic acid stood at RMB 7,816.67 per metric ton—down 11.84% from June 1 and down 2.56% from May 1, 2026.
- Cost pass-through effect: Adipic acid accounts for 60–70% of DOA production costs; its recent price decline has alleviated cost pressure on DOA producers. Nonetheless, vigilance remains warranted regarding potential rebounds driven by upstream volatility (e.g., benzene price fluctuations).

2. n-Octanol Market
- n-Octanol pricing is highly sensitive to crude oil prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the first half of 2026 intensified price volatility; however, with new capacity coming online in H2 2026, supply is stabilizing, and prices are projected to settle within RMB 8,500–9,000 per metric ton.

IV. Policy & Industry Trends
1. Environmental Policy Drivers
- The “Action Plan for Emerging Pollutant Control” restricts use of phthalate-based plasticizers, accelerating demand growth for eco-friendly alternatives like DOA—particularly in the medical sector, where penetration has increased markedly.
- Local governments offer incentives for green chemical projects (e.g., Jiangsu Province provides subsidies up to RMB 800 per ton of qualified capacity), catalyzing industry-wide technological upgrading.

2. Technological Innovation Directions
- Leading enterprises are advancing continuous esterification process retrofits targeting a 30% reduction in wastewater discharge and a 12% decrease in unit energy consumption—aligning with China’s dual-carbon goals and reinforcing long-term competitiveness.

V. Market Outlook & Risk Assessment
1. Short-Term Forecast (Q3 2026)
- Price Range: DOA prices are expected to remain stable within RMB 7,800–8,200 per metric ton, supported by stabilization in adipic acid pricing—but upside potential remains limited due to cautious downstream procurement behavior.
- Supply-Demand Balance: Market conditions reflect a fragile equilibrium, as new capacity releases coincide with seasonal demand softness (e.g., reduced PVC product manufacturing during summer months).

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook (2027–2028)
- Demand Drivers: Policy-driven appliance and automotive industry recovery under the “trade-in” initiative will boost demand for PVC soft products, supporting DOA consumption growth of >8% annually.
- Structural Upgrading: Expansion of medical-grade DOA production capacity will raise domestic high-end market share and enhance product value-added.
- Key Risks: Significant raw material price volatility, intensifying international trade friction, and tightening environmental regulations may compress profit margins.

VI. Key Data Summary
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 Forecast | July 2026 Status |
|---------------------|-------------|-------------|----------------|
| Domestic Total Output (thousand tons) | 187 | 203 | — |
| Apparent Domestic Consumption (thousand tons) | 183 | 198 | — |
| Export Volume (thousand tons) | — | 45 | — |
| Adipic Acid Price (RMB/ton) | — | — | 7,816.67 |
| DOA Market Price (RMB/ton) | 9,800 | — | 8,000 |