Di(Propylene Glycol) Tert-Butyl Ether

Market Intelligence on Ethylene Glycol t-Butyl Ether

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market:
- East China: Main transaction prices range from 12,500 to 13,200 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 300 RMB/ton (2.3%) week-on-week.
- South China: Prices range from 12,800 to 13,500 RMB/ton, up 2.5% month-on-month; quotes for some high-end supplies have exceeded 13,800 RMB/ton.
- North China: Prices remain stable at 12,200 to 12,900 RMB/ton, with slight increases in localized areas due to tight supply.

2. International Market:
- Asia (FOB China): Prices have risen to USD 1,650-1,720/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week, driven by increased Chinese domestic demand and export orders.
- Europe (FD Northwest Europe): Prices are stable at EUR 1,850-1,920/ton, with balanced supply and demand and no significant fluctuations.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic Capacity Utilization: Approximately 78%, up 2 percentage points from last week, mainly due to the resumption of operations at some units after maintenance.
- Imports: October imports are expected to reach 12,000 tons, a 15% month-on-month increase, primarily sourced from South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia.
- Inventory Levels: East China port inventories have dropped to 18,000 tons, a 22% decrease from last month's low, indicating a continued tight supply situation.

2. Demand Side:
- Coatings Industry: Accounts for 55% of total demand; winter environmental policies are boosting demand for water-based coatings, thereby increasing consumption of ethylene glycol t-butyl ether.
- Inks and Cleaners: Account for 30% of demand; downstream orders are stable, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs.
- Export Market: October exports are expected to exceed 8,000 tons, a 12% month-on-month increase, with major destinations including India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

III. Costs and Profits
1. Raw Material Prices:
- Ethylene Oxide: Prices remain stable at 7,200-7,400 RMB/ton, providing strong cost support.
- Isobutylene: Prices have risen to 8,800-9,200 RMB/ton, up 1.5% week-on-week, pushing up production costs for ethylene glycol t-butyl ether.

2. Production Profits:
- Average Industry Gross Margin: Approximately 800-1,000 RMB/ton, compressed by 50 RMB/ton from last week, but still within a reasonable range.

IV. Relevant Policies and Events
1. Environmental Policies:
- Many regions in China are advancing \"dual carbon\" goals and restricting the use of high-VOCs solvents, promoting the substitution with water-based coatings, which indirectly benefits the demand for ethylene glycol t-butyl ether.

2. International Trade:
- India has imposed temporary anti-dumping duties on imported solvents, but ethylene glycol t-butyl ether is not on the list, so export orders to India continue to grow.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-Term Drivers:
- Supply: Slow progress in the resumption of domestic units and delayed arrival of imported goods support prices at low inventory levels.
- Demand: The peak season for the coatings industry continues, export orders are growing, and essential demand procurement is active.
- Costs: Firm raw material prices and smooth cost transmission support market quotes.

2. Risk Factors:
- Price volatility risks for raw materials such as ethylene oxide and isobutylene.
- Impact of winter environmental production restrictions on downstream operating rates.
- Transmission of overall chemical sentiment due to international oil price fluctuations.

VI. Forecasts
1. Price Trends:
- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Domestic prices are expected to remain strong, with mainstream prices in East China potentially breaking through 13,500 RMB/ton.
- Medium-term (1 month): As imported goods arrive and domestic capacity is released, the price increase may narrow, but there is limited room for a pullback.

2. Supply and Demand Outlook:
- Supply: Domestic capacity utilization is expected to rise to 82% in November, with imports maintaining high levels, gradually alleviating the tight supply situation.
- Demand: Demand in the coatings industry will continue until year-end, while export orders may slightly decline due to seasonal factors.

3. Operational Recommendations:
- Downstream Users: Focus on essential purchases, avoid chasing highs, and consider building positions in batches to lock in costs.
- Traders: Monitor inventory changes, appropriately lower inventory turnover rates, and guard against the risk of price pullbacks.
- Producers: Optimize raw material procurement strategies, lock in low-cost raw materials, and ensure production profits.