Iron Oxide

Iron Oxide Red Product Market Dynamics Intelligence (October 12 – November 12, 2026)

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I. Price Trends

| Product | Specification | Price (CNY/ton) | Date |
|------|------|-------------|------|
| Iron Oxide Red (National Average Price) | — | 6,890 | Nov 2 |
| 759 Iron Oxide Red | Fe?O? ≥99.2% | 3,400 | Nov 2 |
| 757 Iron Oxide Red | Fe?O? ≥99.4% | 3,100 | Nov 2 |
| Iron Oxide Red (Dry Method Z895-B) | 325 mesh | 3,580 | Nov 2 |
| Iron Oxide Red (Wet Method GB130) | 325 mesh | 6,770 | Nov 2 |
| Iron Oxide Red (Wet Method GB101) | 325 mesh | 6,890 | Nov 2 |

- SunSirs released iron oxide red commodity price reports on November 6 and November 10, respectively. The benchmark price model continues to operate, and the market quotation system remains active.
- The national average price in early November was 6,890 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period (0% change). The overall market is in a sideways consolidation phase.
- A significant price gap exists between dry and wet method products: dry method products are approximately 3,100–3,580 CNY/ton, while wet method products are approximately 6,770–6,890 CNY/ton, reflecting the cost and quality stratification of different production processes.

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II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals

**1. Supply Side**
- In 2023, domestic iron oxide red production capacity was 380,000 tons, with output of 305,000 tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of approximately 80%.
- Industry production bases are gradually migrating to western regions to be closer to downstream customers and reduce production factor costs.
- The iron red method for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production is driving new demand for battery-grade iron oxide red. In 2025, LFP shipments via the iron red method were 95,000 tons. In 2026, production is expected to reach 200,000–220,000 tons, with total installed capacity reaching 500,000 tons, creating incremental demand for upstream high-purity iron oxide red.

**2. Demand Side**
- Traditional downstream sectors, including coatings, building materials, plastics, and magnetic materials, account for over 70% of demand. In 2024, the domestic inorganic pigment market size exceeded 38 billion CNY, with annual demand growth for coloring and functional pigments maintaining a rate of over 6%.
- The iron red series accounts for 51% of the iron oxide product mix, making it the largest category.
- Recovery in real estate completions and the advancement of the \"Guaranteed Delivery\" policy provide some support for coating demand, but overall terminal demand remains constrained by economic downturn pressures.

**3. Export Side**
- From January to October 2024, cumulative iron oxide exports were 281,100 tons, with an export value of 1.926 billion CNY. For the full year of 2023, exports were 279,000 tons with a value of 2.168 billion CNY. While export volume saw a slight recovery, the value declined, reflecting downward pressure on unit prices.
- Key export destinations include the United States (19% share), Russia (7%), India (5%), as well as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

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III. Key Value Chain Variables

| Variable | Dynamics |
|------|------|
| Iron Red Method LFP | Entering a phase of scaled-up expansion in 2026, shifting from a \"technical alternative\" to a key choice for new capacity. Battery-grade iron oxide red is becoming a new link in the industry chain. |
| Phosphate Price | Continued rise in the second half of 2025. Phosphate accounts for over 70% of LFP processing costs, highlighting the cost advantage of the iron red method. |
| Environmental Policies | Continuous upgrading, forcing the industry to transition toward green processes and high-end quality control. |
| Raw Materials | Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, such as iron ore, directly impact the production costs of iron oxide red. |

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IV. Analysis and Assessment

**1. Short Term (1–3 Months): Sideways with a Slight Weak Bias**
- The average price in early November remained flat, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Traditional downstream sectors (coatings, building materials) are entering the winter construction off-season, limiting demand-side support.
- Prices for high-end wet method products remain stable in the 6,770–6,890 CNY/ton range, while low-end dry method products are in the 3,100–3,580 CNY/ton range. The price stratification is clear, and significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

**2. Medium Term (3–6 Months): Intensified Structural Divergence**
- The expansion of the iron red method for LFP will drive demand for battery-grade high-purity iron oxide red. The price gap between high-end products and ordinary industrial-grade products is expected to widen further.
- The export market, affected by global economic uncertainty and trade friction, may continue to see a pattern of increasing volume but declining prices.

**3. Long-Term Trend: Dual Drivers of High-End Development and New Energy**
- High-end iron oxide red products compatible with 5.5th/6th generation LFP are expected to enter mass production within 1–2 years.
- Industry concentration will increase, with leading enterprises possessing full-category supply capabilities, stable quality control, and R&D capabilities gaining a larger market share.

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V. Forecast

| Timeframe | Price Forecast | Core Logic |
|----------|---------|---------|
| Nov–Dec 2026 | Mainstream wet method products to fluctuate in the 6,700–7,000 CNY/ton range; dry method products in the 3,000–3,600 CNY/ton range | Winter demand off-season + raw material cost support leading to narrow price fluctuations |
| Q1 2027 | Wet method products may rise slightly to 7,000–7,300 CNY/ton | Capacity release of the iron red method driving high-end product demand, combined with pre-Spring Festival stocking |
| Full Year 2027 | Premiums for high-end battery-grade products to expand; pressure on ordinary industrial-grade products | New energy demand increment vs. weak traditional demand, with structural market trends dominating |

**Risk Warnings**: Significant fluctuations in iron ore raw material prices, slower-than-expected industrialization of the iron red method, continued sluggishness in real estate completions, and changes in export trade policies could all disrupt the above forecasts.