N-(2-Hydroxyethyl)-N-Methyl-4-Toluidine

Recent Commodity Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of N-methyl-N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-p-toluidine fluctuated in the range of 28,000 to 30,000 RMB/ton, representing an increase of approximately 3% compared to the same period last week and an 8% increase compared to the same period last month. Prices vary slightly by region; the East China region has relatively higher prices, ranging from 29,000 to 30,000 RMB/ton, while the North China region ranges from 28,000 to 29,000 RMB/ton.
- International Market: Prices for this product in the international market also show an upward trend. Prices in Europe and the US are in the range of 4,200 to 4,500 USD/ton, up 2.5% from the previous week; prices in other Asian regions (excluding China) are in the range of 3,800 to 4,000 USD/ton, with an increase of approximately 3%.
2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Production: The operating rate of major domestic production enterprises remains at approximately 75% to 80%. Some enterprises have seen a decrease in output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues. Specifically, Company A, facing tight supply of the raw material p-toluidine, has reduced its operating rate to 70%, resulting in a market supply reduction of approximately 10%.
- Import Situation: Recent import volumes have increased, but due to rising international logistics costs and export restriction policies in some countries, the arrival time of imports has been delayed, and actual port arrivals have not met expectations. Last week's import volume was approximately 200 tons, a 15% increase from the previous week, but 20% less than the planned arrival volume.
3. Demand Situation
- Downstream Industries: Demand in downstream industries such as dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates is robust. The dye industry has entered its traditional production peak season, leading to a significant increase in demand for N-methyl-N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-p-toluidine, accounting for approximately 60% of total demand; demand in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry is steadily growing, accounting for approximately 30%.
- Order Situation: Downstream enterprises have sufficient orders, with some scheduling orders through next month. To ensure production, downstream enterprises are actively procuring raw materials, driving active market transactions.
4. Cost Aspects
- Raw Material Prices: The price of the main raw material, p-toluidine, has continued to rise, with a 12% increase over the past month. The current market price is in the range of 18,000 to 19,000 RMB/ton. The price of another raw material, ethylene oxide, has also risen, increasing by 5% compared to the previous week, which has increased the production cost of N-methyl-N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-p-toluidine.
- Energy Costs: Recent significant fluctuations in energy prices such as coal and natural gas have had a certain impact on the energy costs of production enterprises, further compressing their profit margins.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Reasons for Price Increases
- Supply Side: The decrease in operating rates of domestic production enterprises and delays in import arrivals have led to reduced market supply, which is one of the main factors driving price increases.
- Demand Side: Robust demand from downstream industries and sufficient orders have led enterprises to actively procure raw materials, pushing market prices up.
- Cost Side: Rising raw material prices and fluctuations in energy costs have increased production costs. To maintain profits, enterprises have raised their product prices.
2. Market Transaction Status
- Market transactions are active, with high procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises and smooth shipments by traders. However, due to continuous price increases, some downstream enterprises are in a wait-and-see mode, waiting for a price pullback before making further purchases.

Forecast
1. Price Trends
- Short-term: Affected by tight supply and robust demand, the price of N-methyl-N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-p-toluidine is expected to continue its upward trend, with an estimated increase of 2% to 3%.
- Medium-term: As the operating rates of domestic production enterprises gradually recover and import arrivals increase, market supply will be alleviated to some extent. The rate of price increases will gradually narrow, but overall prices will remain at a relatively high level.
2. Market Supply and Demand
- Supply: Over the next two weeks, the operating rates of domestic production enterprises are expected to rise to 80% to 85%, and import arrivals will also gradually increase, improving market supply.
- Demand: Demand in downstream industries will remain robust. However, as prices continue to rise, some downstream enterprises may adjust their production plans and reduce procurement volumes, potentially slowing the rate of demand growth.