1,3,5-triazine-2,4,6-triamine phosphate

I. Recent Market Dynamics
1. Price Trends
- The domestic market price of melamine polyphosphate (MPOP) has recently shown a stable and slightly rising trend. In some regions, the mainstream transaction prices have increased by approximately 200–300 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. Quotations in the East China region are between 12,500 and 13,500 RMB/ton, while those in the South China region range from 12,800 to 13,800 RMB/ton.
- Internationally, MPOP prices have also seen a slight increase due to rising raw material costs and supply tightness in certain areas. Prices in Southeast Asia have risen by approximately 3%–5%.
2. Supply Situation
- The overall operating rate of domestic producers remains stable, hovering around 75%–80%. Some enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in output due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues, but the overall supply has not changed significantly.
- Import arrivals have been relatively steady recently. However, due to rising international shipping costs, some importers have raised their quotations, providing certain support to domestic market prices.
3. Demand Situation
- Downstream demand has varied. The fireproof materials industry has maintained stable growth in its demand for MPOP. With increasing fire safety requirements in the construction and transportation sectors, related enterprises have increased their procurement volumes of MPOP.
- Demand in the plastic additives industry has slowed slightly. Affected by the off-season in the terminal product market, some plastic manufacturing enterprises have reduced their procurement of MPOP, but overall demand remains at a certain level.
4. Raw Material Market
- The market price of melamine has remained relatively stable recently, with sufficient supply, having a limited impact on MPOP costs.
- The price of polyphosphoric acid has increased, mainly driven by rising prices and tight supply of upstream phosphate rock. This has led to higher production costs for MPOP, becoming one of the factors driving the price increase of MPOP.

II. Analysis and Judgment
1. Price Drivers
- Cost push is the main reason for the recent price increase in MPOP. The rise in polyphosphoric acid prices has increased production costs, forcing enterprises to raise product prices to maintain profit margins.
- Supply and demand dynamics have also influenced prices. Although overall supply remains stable, the growing demand from the fireproof materials industry has partially alleviated supply pressure, providing support for price increases.
2. Market Sentiment
- Traders and production enterprises hold a cautiously optimistic view of the market outlook. On one hand, rising costs and increasing demand provide certain support for prices; on the other hand, there are concerns that further slowdown in downstream demand and intensified market competition may put downward pressure on prices.

III. Forecast
1. Short-term Forecast (1–2 Weeks)
- Price: The market price of MPOP is expected to continue its stable and slightly rising trend, with an increase of approximately 100–200 RMB/ton. This is primarily driven by cost increases and support from demand in the fireproof materials industry.
- Supply: The operating rate of production enterprises will remain stable, and import arrivals are not expected to change significantly, ensuring overall sufficient market supply.
- Demand: Demand in the fireproof materials industry will continue to grow, while demand in the plastic additives industry may remain steady or decline slightly.
2. Medium-term Forecast (1–3 Months)
- Price trends will depend on changes in raw material prices and downstream demand. If polyphosphoric acid prices continue to rise, MPOP prices may follow suit. However, if demand in the plastic additives industry remains weak, it may inhibit price increases. The expected price fluctuation range is between 12,000 and 14,000 RMB/ton.
- Supply: With adjustments in enterprise production plans and changes in import situations, market supply may experience some fluctuations, but overall supply capacity will be sufficient to meet market demand.
- Demand: Demand in the fireproof materials industry is expected to continue growing, while demand in the plastic additives industry may recover somewhat with the arrival of the peak season for terminal products.