Cocamidopropyl betaine

Market Intelligence on Coconut Oil Amide Propyl Betaine

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market: Over the past week, the mainstream transaction price of coconut oil amide propyl betaine (30% content, industrial grade) in the East China region fluctuated between 12,500 and 13,200 CNY/ton, representing a week-on-week increase of approximately 1.8%, primarily driven by rising coconut oil prices. Prices in the South China region are slightly higher, reaching 13,000-13,500 CNY/ton, due to regional supply tightness.
2. International Market: The CFR (Cost and Freight) price in the Southeast Asian market remained stable at 1,850-1,950 USD/ton. Prices in European and American markets increased slightly to 2,100-2,250 USD/ton due to rising logistics costs, but demand performance was sluggish.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
- Domestic capacity utilization remained at 75%-80%. Some manufacturers in Shandong and Zhejiang regions suspended production for maintenance due to environmental inspections, leading to a short-term reduction in supply.
- Import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month, mainly because major Southeast Asian producing countries entered the rainy season, limiting coconut oil output and consequently reducing exports of coconut oil amide propyl betaine.
2. Demand Side:
- The downstream daily chemical industry (shampoos, body washes, etc.) entered the traditional peak consumption season, with order volumes increasing by 8%-10% month-on-month, boosting raw material procurement demand.
- Demand in industrial sectors (textile auxiliaries, oilfield chemicals) remained stable, but the growth rate of new orders slowed down due to macroeconomic impacts.

III. Cost and Profit
1. Raw Material Costs: Coconut oil prices rose by 3.5% week-on-week to 10,200-10,800 CNY/ton, accounting for over 60% of the production cost of coconut oil amide propyl betaine. Sodium hydroxide prices showed minor fluctuations, remaining stable at 3,800-4,200 CNY/ton.
2. Profit Margins: The industry average gross margin has been compressed to 12%-15%. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers have suspended orders due to cost pressures, resulting in a reduction of low-priced goods in the market.

IV. Relevant Policies and Industry Events
1. Stricter domestic environmental policies have led to the exit of non-compliant production capacity, further improving industry concentration.
2. Major Southeast Asian producing countries are planning to increase export tariffs on coconut oil, which may push up subsequent raw material costs.

V. Analysis and Judgment
1. Short-term Drivers: Strong coconut oil prices, phased tightening of domestic supply, and the release of peak-season stocking demand from downstream industries collectively support price increases.
2. Risk Factors: Fluctuations in international oil prices may transmit to the chemical raw material market. Downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials is limited; if demand does not follow suit, the room for further price increases will be restricted.

VI. Price Forecast
1. Next Week: Domestic market prices are expected to remain at high levels with fluctuations, with mainstream transaction prices between 12,800 and 13,500 CNY/ton, and the rate of increase narrowing to less than 1%.
2. Medium-to-Long Term (1-3 Months): If the recovery of Southeast Asian raw material supply is slow, prices may further rise to 14,000 CNY/ton. If downstream resistance intensifies, prices may correct to the 12,000-12,500 CNY/ton range. It is recommended to closely monitor coconut oil price trends and the sustainability of downstream orders.