Diethyl sulfate

Diethyl Sulfate: Recent Market Dynamics Report

I. Price Trends
- Benchmark Price Movement: According to ChemNet (Shengyishe), the benchmark price of diethyl sulfate on June 30, 2026, stood at RMB 13,960.00 per metric ton, representing a 1.69% decline from the beginning-of-month price of RMB 14,200.00/ton on June 1 and a 2.55% drop from RMB 14,325.00/ton on June 24.
- Enterprise Quotation Volatility:
- On June 17, 2026, enterprise quotations in Shandong Province ranged from RMB 12,500/ton (Qingdao Chengxin Hongfeng Chemical Co., Ltd.; 99.8% purity) to RMB 14,800/ton (Shandong Hongyang Chemical Co., Ltd.; 99.8% purity).
- On June 26, 2026, the benchmark price remained stable at RMB 13,960.00/ton; however, actual transaction prices varied—e.g., Shandong Jinyueyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 11,000/ton (99.5% purity, domestic origin).
- On May 13, 2026, select Shandong-based enterprises offered quotations as low as RMB 9,000/ton (minimum order quantity ≥1 ton), though the recommended selling price was RMB 12,000/ton.

II. Supply and Demand
- Supply Side:
- Shandong Province is the primary production hub for diethyl sulfate in China. Multiple enterprises there achieve annual sales volumes exceeding 1,000 tons, with typical inventory levels maintained above 50 tons—ensuring stable supply capacity.
- India-sourced imported products supplement domestic supply, priced between RMB 9,000–12,500/ton, thereby intensifying competitive pressure on domestic offerings.
- Demand Side:
- Globally, diethyl sulfate sales revenue totaled USD 0.04 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach USD 0.05 billion by 2031, reflecting a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%.
- Domestically, demand remains weak in the short term, influenced by tightening environmental regulations and fluctuating downstream demand—particularly from agrochemicals and pharmaceutical intermediates sectors.

III. Regional Price Differentials and Brand Premium
- Regional Price Differentials: Prices in Shandong Province consistently remain below the national benchmark—for example, Qingdao Chengxin Hongfeng Chemical’s quotation of RMB 12,500/ton on June 17 represented a 10.4% discount relative to the benchmark.
- Brand Premium: Imported products (e.g., ISC/Aarti branded items from India) generally command higher prices than domestic equivalents. Meanwhile, certain high-purity domestic grades (e.g., 99.9% purity) approach import-level pricing due to enhanced quality attributes.

IV. Market Sentiment and Transaction Models
- Market Sentiment: Recent price fluctuations have narrowed significantly, with daily price changes frequently registering 0%. Overall market sentiment leans toward cautious observation.
- Transaction Models:
- The benchmark price serves as a reference for settlement, while actual transaction prices are adjusted based on factors including credit terms (K) and logistics costs (C).
- Several enterprises publish real-time quotations via B2B chemical platforms—including Guidechem.com and China Petroleum & Chemical Network—supporting online negotiations and instant inquiry services.

Analysis and Assessment

I. Downward Price Pressure
- Short-Term Factors: Persistent price declines throughout June stem primarily from oversupply and sluggish demand. Prices are expected to remain weak in July, with the benchmark potentially falling to approximately RMB 13,500/ton.
- Long-Term Factors: With only a 5.3% CAGR forecast globally and increasingly stringent environmental policies constraining domestic capacity expansion, significant upward price momentum appears unlikely.

II. Regional and Brand Differentiation
- Regional Differentiation: Shandong Province dominates the low-price segment, leveraging cost advantages such as high self-sufficiency in key raw materials (ethanol and sulfuric acid). In contrast, East and South China regions face relatively higher logistics expenses, supporting comparatively elevated pricing.
- Brand Differentiation: Import brands retain strong footholds in premium segments owing to brand recognition and consistent quality. Domestic producers compete effectively in mid-to-lower-tier markets through superior cost-performance ratios.

III. Supply-Demand Structural Adjustment
- Supply Side: Enterprises are adopting advanced technologies—such as continuous-process manufacturing—to reduce production costs; concurrently, smaller-scale producers are exiting the market, resulting in rising industry concentration.
- Demand Side: Downstream industries—especially agrochemicals—are increasingly demanding high-purity, low-residue diethyl sulfate, catalyzing product upgrading and innovation.

Forecast

I. Price Outlook
- July Forecast: The benchmark price is anticipated to stabilize within the range of RMB 13,500–14,000/ton, with enterprise quotations exhibiting reduced volatility (±5%).
- H2 Outlook: Should downstream demand recover—e.g., during peak-season pesticide exports—prices may rebound modestly to around RMB 14,500/ton. Conversely, sustained oversupply could push prices down to RMB 13,000/ton.

II. Market Opportunities
- Premium Segment: Growing demand for 99.9%-purity products presents an opportunity for manufacturers to capture market share via purity enhancement and optimized packaging (e.g., 250 kg/drum).
- Export Market: Strong potential exists in India and Southeast Asia; competitively priced domestic products can expand export volumes leveraging cost advantages.

III. Risk Alerts
- Policy Risk: Stricter environmental inspections may trigger temporary shutdowns or rectification mandates among certain producers, leading to short-term supply constraints.
- Raw Material Risk: Volatility in ethanol and sulfuric acid prices may transmit upstream cost pressures, undermining diethyl sulfate’s cost stability.