Sulfurized Isobutylene

Sulfurized Isobutylene: Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Dynamics
- According to the Base Price Index published by Business Network (Shengyishe), the price of sulfurized isobutylene is influenced by multiple factors, including account-period costs (adjustment coefficient K), logistics costs, brand-specific price differentials, and regional price differentials (premiums or discounts, denoted as C). Although daily quotation data for sulfurized isobutylene were not available recently, its price trend can be reasonably inferred from the volatility observed in the isobutylene market.
- Regarding the isobutylene market: In December 2026, the Shandong isobutylene market exhibited a pattern of rising first then falling. The monthly average price declined slightly after an initial increase. As of December 31, the Shandong isobutylene monthly average price stood at RMB 7,568 per ton, down RMB 136 per ton (a decline of 1.77%) compared with November’s average. The prevailing transaction price ranged between RMB 7,250–7,600 per ton, representing a decrease of RMB 125 per ton (a sequential decline of 1.66%) versus the level on November 28.

2. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Fluctuations in isobutylene supply directly impacted pricing. In early December 2026, Yuhuang Chemical and Yingke Chemical suspended or reduced operations of their isobutylene units, tightening the fundamental supply-demand balance. From mid-to-late December, Qixiang Tengda’s isobutylene facility gradually resumed operations, shifting the supply-demand balance in eastern Shandong toward surplus. As of December 31, the national average operating load rate of isobutylene production facilities in December stood at 55.04%, up 1.14 percentage points month-on-month; the lowest and highest monthly operating load rates recorded were 49.59% and 64.55%, respectively.
- From a process perspective, MTBE cracking remains one of the key production routes for isobutylene. In June 2026, operational performance varied significantly across different process routes for MTBE-integrated isobutylene production. For instance, in Shandong, the average profit margin for isomerization-based MTBE integrated units was –RMB 125 per ton, placing the entire unit in loss-making status; the average operating load was 44.33%, down 1.87 percentage points month-on-month. For isobutane dehydrogenation-based MTBE integrated units, the average profit margin deteriorated further to –RMB 842 per ton, with an average operating load of 65.37%, down 5.25 percentage points month-on-month. For PO/MTBE co-production units, the average profit margin remained negative at –RMB 239 per ton, while the average operating load improved to 56.20%, up 6.34 percentage points month-on-month.
- Demand Side:
- Isobutylene consumption volume in December 2026 totaled 68,800 tons, up 8.18% month-on-month. Starting mid-December, Zhejiang Xinhui resumed operations of its butyl rubber plant; however, other polyisobutylene producers temporarily halted or reduced output, limiting the overall incremental demand for isobutylene. Consequently, the growth in isobutylene demand post-mid-December lagged behind supply expansion, resulting in an increasingly loose supply-demand structure.
- Lubricant additives represent the largest end-use segment for sulfurized isobutylene, where it serves primarily as an extreme-pressure anti-wear additive in anti-wear hydraulic oils, metalworking fluids, industrial lubricants, and greases. With continued development in high-end manufacturing and new-energy industries, demand for sulfurized isobutylene is expected to rise further.

II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Key Price Drivers
- Supply-Demand Balance: This remains the primary determinant of sulfurized isobutylene pricing. Tight supply conditions tend to push prices upward, whereas oversupply exerts downward pressure. As seen in December 2026, the isobutylene market experienced price fluctuations driven by supply-side volatility—similar dynamics are likely to influence sulfurized isobutylene pricing.
- Raw Material Costs: Isobutylene is a critical raw material for sulfurized isobutylene production. Profitability and operating load rates of isobutylene production facilities directly affect isobutylene pricing, thereby transmitting cost impacts to sulfurized isobutylene. In June 2026, most MTBE-integrated isobutylene production routes operated at a loss, potentially constraining isobutylene supply and exerting upward pressure on its price—this effect may subsequently propagate to sulfurized isobutylene.
- Downstream Industry Demand: Shifts in downstream demand significantly influence sulfurized isobutylene pricing. Growth in high-end manufacturing and new-energy sectors boosts demand for lubricant additives containing sulfurized isobutylene, thereby supporting price increases.

2. Current Market Summary
The sulfurized isobutylene market remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in the isobutylene market’s supply-demand fundamentals and pricing trends. Concurrently, evolving downstream demand patterns also play a pivotal role. Recently, the isobutylene market has displayed broadening supply-demand slackness and softening prices, which is likely to exert downward pressure on sulfurized isobutylene pricing.

III. Outlook and Forecast
1. Short-Term Forecast (1–2 months)
- Price Trend: In the near term, sulfurized isobutylene prices are expected to remain subdued under continued isobutylene market oversupply. With isobutylene consumption projected to decline in January—amid seasonal softness in rubber and plastics demand—the isobutylene market is anticipated to sustain a loose supply-demand balance, potentially driving sulfurized isobutylene prices modestly lower. Ahead of the Spring Festival in February, downstream users may engage in pre-holiday inventory building; however, given that some smaller downstream plants will halt operations during the holiday period, overall demand improvement is expected to remain limited, possibly leading to a slight uptick in sulfurized isobutylene average prices. In March, resumption of operations among downstream isobutylene-consuming plants is anticipated to proceed gradually, offering only marginal demand support; thus, sulfurized isobutylene prices may decline again.
- Supply-Demand Evolution: On the supply side, previously idled or maintenance-affected facilities have largely returned to normal operation, ensuring stable isobutylene feedstock availability for sulfurized isobutylene production. On the demand side, no significant near-term growth is anticipated in downstream sector demand, keeping sulfurized isobutylene demand at relatively low levels.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast (3–6 months and beyond)
- Price Trend: Over the medium-to-longer term, sustained development in high-end manufacturing and new-energy industries is expected to gradually lift demand for sulfurized isobutylene, providing underlying price support. However, if isobutylene supply remains persistently ample and raw material costs decline, upward price momentum for sulfurized isobutylene may be constrained.
- Supply-Demand Evolution: On the supply side, producers may adjust capacity scale and enhance production efficiency in response to market demand, thereby increasing sulfurized isobutylene output. On the demand side, growth in high-end manufacturing and new-energy sectors will drive higher demand for lubricant additives—and thus for sulfurized isobutylene—while technological advancements may broaden its application scope, further expanding market demand.