Diphenyl(2,4,6-trimethylbenzoyl)phosphine oxide

# Recent Market Dynamics Analysis of Photoinitiator TPO

## I. Price Dynamics
- **Current Price**: As of July 25, 2026, the market price for domestic 99% photoinitiator TPO remains stable at 150,000 RMB/ton (approximately 150 RMB/kg), representing a 57.9% increase from 95 RMB/kg on August 11, 2025, placing it at a one-year high.
- **Recent Fluctuations**: Between July and August 2025, prices surged from 88 RMB/kg to 95 RMB/kg, a 26% increase. In 2026, prices have maintained a high-level oscillation, with market quotes ranging from 30 to 400 RMB/kg, while mainstream transaction prices concentrate between 60 and 150 RMB/kg.
- **Historical Comparison**: Following BASF's permanent closure of its photoinitiator production line in February 2025, the global supply gap in the high-end market widened, driving a systematic price increase. The current price center is more than 50% higher than pre-inflation levels.

## II. Supply and Demand Contradiction Analysis

### Supply Side
1. **Capacity Contraction**:
- In 2025, Ningxia Wokailong ceased operations due to environmental issues with no prospect of resumption, while a fire at a subsidiary of Yangfan New Material led to a shutdown for rectification. The industry lost over 15% of its production capacity.
- With BASF exiting the market, the global supply gap for high-end TPO reached 3,000 tons/year, partially filled by domestic enterprises such as Jiuri New Material.
2. **Technical Barriers**:
- The synthesis process for photoinitiators is complex (e.g., the Grignard method poses challenges in solvent recovery and high costs for three-waste treatment), making entry difficult for new players. The industry's CR5 exceeds 60%.
3. **Environmental Pressure**:
- Under China's \"Dual Carbon\" goals, VOCs emission standards have tightened, leading to the exit of some high-pollution capacities and further optimizing effective supply.

### Demand Side
1. **Recovery in Traditional Fields**:
- UV coatings and inks benefit from environmental policies (VOCs reduction) and potential real estate policy stimulus, with demand growing by 8%-10% year-on-year.
2. **Explosion in Emerging Fields**:
- **3D Printing**: Surging demand for TPO in desktop devices, with the global photosensitive resin market expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2023 to 2030, doubling TPO consumption.
- **Semiconductors**: As the localization rate of KrF/ArF photoresists increases (reaching 35% for KrF and breaking through 20% for ArF in 2025), demand for high-end photoresists containing TPO is growing by over 20% annually.
- **New Energy**: Expansion into new scenarios such as photovoltaic encapsulation materials and battery insulation layers adds over 500 tons of new demand in 2026.
3. **Technological Substitution**:
- The popularization of UV-LED curing technology (penetration rate exceeding 60%) aligns TPO highly with 365nm/385nm wavelengths, amplifying structural demand.

## III. Cost Driving Factors
1. **Raw Material Price Increases**:
- The price of key upstream material, 2,4,6-trimethylbenzoyl chloride (TMBCl), surged by 130% in 2025, directly increasing TPO production costs by approximately 25%.
2. **Increased Environmental Costs**:
- Environmental investments in wastewater treatment and exhaust gas recovery have risen from 8% to 15% of production costs, significantly pressuring small and medium-sized enterprises.

## IV. Competitive Landscape
1. **Rise of Domestic Leaders**:
- Jiuri New Material accounts for over 30% of global capacity, achieving an 80% self-sufficiency rate in raw materials through acquisitions like Hongrun Chemical, resulting in gross margins 5-8 percentage points higher than the industry average.
- Yangfan New Material and Qiangli New Material focus on the high-end market, with shipments of TPO-L (liquid model) growing by 40% year-on-year in 2026.
2. **Exit of International Giants**:
- Companies such as BASF and IGM Resins are gradually reducing their traditional photoinitiator businesses to shift towards electronic-grade specialty chemicals, allowing domestic enterprises to capture high-end market share.

## V. Price Trend Forecast
1. **Short-term (Q3-Q4 2026)**:
- With a persistent supply-demand gap (demand growth of 12% vs. supply growth of 8%), prices will remain high at 140-160 RMB/kg, potentially breaking through 180 RMB/kg in extreme cases.
2. **Medium-term (2027-2028)**:
- The commissioning of Jiuri New Material's 28,000-ton new capacity (reaching full production in 2027), combined with Yangfan New Material's 16,000-ton capacity release, will put downward pressure on prices, though premiums for high-end models (such as semiconductor-grade TPO) will persist.
3. **Long-term (2029-2030)**:
- Industry concentration will rise to over 75%, with the price center stabilizing at 120-140 RMB/kg. Green products (low toxicity, halogen-free) will account for over 50% of the share, driving a structural upward shift in the average price.

## VI. Market Trends
1. **Technological Upgrades**:
- The popularization of green processes such as continuous flow micro-reaction and solvent-free synthesis will increase product purity from 98% to 99.5%, meeting the requirements of high-end electronic and medical applications.
2. **Application Expansion**:
- Accelerated R&D of bio-based photoinitiators and degradable models is expected to capture over 15% market share by 2030.
3. **Digital Penetration**:
- AI is being used for production process optimization (e.g., reaction condition prediction) and product performance evaluation, improving industry average production efficiency by 20%-30%.