Hydrogen fluoride

Hydrofluoric Acid Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
Price Trends
- As of July 27, 2026, the Business Network (Shengyishe) benchmark price for hydrofluoric acid stands at RMB 15,700.00 per ton, representing a 1.51% increase from the beginning-of-month level (RMB 15,466.67/ton) and a 3.97% rise over the past 90 days. Year-on-year, the domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) market average price was RMB 11,583.33/ton at the start of 2025 and rose to RMB 13,033.33/ton by year-end—a cumulative annual increase of 12.52%. The highest price in 2025 occurred in December (RMB 13,033.33/ton), while the lowest was recorded in August (RMB 10,650/ton), yielding a maximum annual price volatility of approximately 22.38%.

Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- China’s hydrofluoric acid production capacity continues to expand steadily; total national anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) capacity in 2026 is projected to reach 4.1–4.2 million tons/year, reflecting a 3%–5% year-on-year growth. Major production bases are concentrated in Fujian, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Zhejiang provinces—among which Fujian and Inner Mongolia each exceed 600,000 tons/year. As of end-2025, China’s effective AHF capacity (on 100% basis) stood at ~2.25 million tons/year, with actual 2025 output totaling 1.924 million tons (100% basis), sustaining an operating rate of 85.5%, the highest level in the past five years.
- In 2026, the AHF supply side will feature: (i) moderate overall capacity expansion; (ii) accelerated release of high-end capacity; (iii) ongoing constraints from raw material availability and policy regulation; and (iv) sustained mid-to-high operating rates. Although total supply volume will grow, structural differentiation will intensify—with supply of high-value-added products (e.g., electronic-grade HF) remaining relatively tight.
- Demand Side:
- Hydrofluoric acid applications have broadened significantly beyond traditional sectors (refrigerants, fluorinated salts) into emerging areas including photovoltaics (PV), lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF?), fluorinated polymers, and integrated circuits (ICs). For 2026, refrigerant production quotas indicate that total HFC-3rd-generation production quota amounts to 798,000 tons (up 5,963 tons YoY), comprising 394,000 tons for domestic use and 404,000 tons for export. HCFC-2nd-generation phase-out continues: R22 production quota stands at 146,100 tons (down 3,000 tons YoY); R141b has been fully phased out. Overall, refrigerant portfolio undergoes structural adjustment—R32, R134a, and R245fa quotas increase, whereas R143a and R227ea quotas decrease. Quota reallocation flexibility has been raised to up to 30%. The top-six producers’ combined market share (CR6) is ~90%, indicating high concentration. Increased quotas for R32/R134a/R245fa drive corresponding AHF demand.
- New-energy sectors constitute the largest incremental demand source, growing >20% annually. LiPF? and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) serve as core drivers: global new-energy vehicle sales are forecast at 13.3 million units, driving >400,000 tons of AHF consumption; novel lithium salt purification standards now target G4/G5 grade. Global PV installations are expected to surpass 500 GW, with N-type cell penetration exceeding 60%, generating ~150,000 tons of electronic-grade HF demand. Hydrogen fuel cell demand ranges between 8,000–12,000 tons, with high growth anticipated over the next 3–5 years.
- Semiconductor and advanced packaging sectors exhibit explosive demand for ultra-high-purity HF, growing 10%–15% annually. Domestic silicon-based semiconductor demand for G4+ grade HF totals 80,000–100,000 tons; SiC/GaN third-generation semiconductors boost HF demand by 18%–22%; advanced packaging market size exceeds USD 4 billion, with annual demand growth >10%.
- High-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals show steady growth: fluorinated pharmaceuticals/agrochemicals consume 60,000–70,000 tons of AHF (10%–12% YoY growth); specialty fluoropolymers market size reaches USD 4.5 billion, supporting 8%–10% AHF demand growth.
- Display and emerging electronics sectors maintain stable growth: next-generation displays drive 30,000–40,000 tons of electronic-grade HF demand (7%–9% YoY growth); electronic chemical demand continuously supplements incremental volumes.

Cost Structure
- Fluorspar—the core non-renewable strategic mineral feedstock—is subject to tightening mining quotas, constraining downward price movement and sustaining upward or range-bound price trends. Sulfuric acid prices surged significantly, becoming a primary driver of rising AHF costs; sulfuric acid’s cost share in AHF production increased from 30% to over 50%.

II. Analysis & Judgment
Drivers of Price Increase
- Cost Push: Rising prices of key raw materials—fluorspar and sulfuric acid—directly elevate AHF production costs, prompting manufacturers to raise product pricing.
- Demand Pull: Rapid development of emerging sectors—including new energy and semiconductors—has driven sustained AHF demand growth, especially for high-value-added products such as electronic-grade HF. This robust demand uplifts overall market demand, exerting upward pressure on prices via supply-demand dynamics.
- Supply Structure Optimization: While aggregate capacity expands, high-end capacity releases faster than overall growth, resulting in persistent tightness for premium-grade products. Such structural imbalance in supply-demand further supports price increases.

Market Characteristics
- Divergent Supply-Demand Structure: Aggregate supply capacity grows, yet high-end capacity remains insufficient; demand growth varies markedly across application segments—emerging sectors far outpace traditional ones.
- Smooth Price Transmission: Upward cost pressures are efficiently passed through to end-product pricing, reflecting strong market acceptance of AHF price levels and underscoring AHF’s critical role within downstream value chains.
- Rising Industry Concentration: Top-five players (Dofluor, Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co.) collectively hold 54.7% market share, up 2.1 percentage points from 2024—enhancing leading firms’ pricing power and fostering industry stability.

III. Forecast
Price Trend
- AHF price center is expected to continue shifting upward in 2026, though the pace may decelerate relative to 2025. Fluorspar and sulfuric acid prices are projected to remain elevated or rise further, providing firm support for AHF pricing. Robust demand growth from emerging sectors will sustain upward momentum; however, moderate capacity expansion may partially alleviate supply-demand tensions, tempering excessive price hikes.

Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply Side: Total capacity will grow moderately, with accelerated deployment of high-end capacity to meet surging demand for high-value-added products. Meanwhile, tightening environmental and safety regulations will accelerate elimination of outdated capacity, further elevating industry concentration.
- Demand Side: New-energy and semiconductor sectors will maintain high-growth trajectories, serving as principal engines of AHF demand expansion. Traditional applications—such as refrigerants—will remain stable, albeit undergoing structural shifts due to HCFC phase-outs and HFC quota adjustments.

Industry Development Trends
- Technological Upgrading: Enterprises will intensify R&D investment to enhance product purity and quality, overcome technical barriers, and meet stringent requirements of high-end markets—for instance, continuously improving metal impurity control in electronic-grade HF to satisfy advanced-node chip manufacturing specifications.
- Industrial Consolidation: Industry concentration will further increase, with leading enterprises expanding scale via M&A and strategic restructuring to strengthen competitiveness. Closer collaboration among firms—including vertical integration across upstream-downstream value chains—will foster synergistic industrial development.
- Green Development: Environmental and safety standards will keep rising. Companies will prioritize green process R&D and adoption to reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions during production, thereby achieving sustainable development.