Hydrogen fluoride

Hydrofluoric Acid (HF) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics
1. Domestic Market Prices
- According to the Business Network (Shengyishe) benchmark price, the HF benchmark price stood at RMB 15,466.67/ton on July 3 and remained stable at RMB 15,467/ton on July 5.
- On July 3, prices for anhydrous HF in the East China region declined to RMB 14,000–14,200/ton; in Shandong Province, the market price for anhydrous HF dropped as low as RMB 13,600–14,300/ton.
- On July 7, industrial-grade HF (HF-55) in Shandong Province was quoted at RMB 6,300/ton, while HF-40 was quoted at RMB 4,400/ton.
- As of July 31, the Business Network HF benchmark price decreased to RMB 10,800/ton, representing a 2.99% decline month-on-month from June.

2. Export Market Prices
- On July 3, the Business Network export benchmark price for HF was RMB 18,133.33/ton, reflecting a notable price premium over the domestic market.

3. Premium Product Prices
- Domestic electronic-grade HF prices show divergence: EL-grade (49% concentration) ranges from RMB 7,000/ton (low-end) to RMB 7,500/ton (high-end).
- G5-grade electronic HF (7N purity, for advanced semiconductor processes) long-term contract (LTC) prices surged by 38%–42% MoM, with an average increase of 40%; the January baseline was RMB 120,000/ton, rising to RMB 168,000/ton in June LTCs. Spot and ultra-high-purity/special-specification grades rose 55%–65% MoM; spot prices were further increased by 20%–30% in late June, with expectations of another 15%–20% rise in July.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Situation
- Domestic anhydrous HF capacity continues to expand, with projected total annual capacity reaching 4.1–4.2 million tons in 2026, up 3%–5% YoY.
- In July, the national hydrogen fluoride market operating rate stood at 50.6%, down 3.1 percentage points MoM, indicating reduced supply.
- Leading enterprises—such as Do-Fluoride Chemicals—maintain high utilization rates for their semiconductor-grade HF production capacity, currently at 40,000 tons/year.

2. Demand Situation
- Although the downstream refrigerant market is in its traditional peak season, weak end-market demand has dampened purchasing enthusiasm; buyers are adopting just-in-time procurement strategies for HF.
- Demand for HF from new-energy sectors is surging: global new-energy vehicle sales are expected to drive HF consumption exceeding 400,000 tons annually; photovoltaic applications require ~150,000 tons of electronic-grade HF annually.
- Semiconductor and advanced packaging industries are witnessing explosive growth in demand for high-purity HF, with annual growth rates of 10%–15%.

III. Cost Factors
1. Fluorspar Prices
- Fluorspar prices remain under upward pressure due to tightened mining quotas, yet prices have trended downward throughout July, weakening cost support for HF.

2. Sulfuric Acid Prices
- Sulfuric acid prices have surged significantly, becoming a primary driver of rising production costs for anhydrous HF—and providing strong cost support for electronic-grade HF pricing.

IV. Market Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Outlook
- Amid raw material price volatility and sluggish downstream demand, the HF market faces near-term pricing pressure; prices are expected to continue declining in July.
- Electronic-grade HF remains relatively resilient, buoyed by robust demand from new-energy and semiconductor sectors—particularly G5-grade products, whose price increases may exceed expectations.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook
- With sustained demand growth from new-energy and semiconductor sectors, the overall HF price floor is expected to gradually shift upward. However, newly commissioned capacities and raw material cost fluctuations may moderate the pace of price increases.
- Supply side: Domestic HF capacity will continue expanding, but supply of high-end products remains tight. Accelerated capacity expansion and vertical integration among leading players will further elevate industry concentration.
- Demand side: New-energy and semiconductor sectors will become the primary growth drivers for HF demand. Traditional applications—e.g., refrigerants—offer limited growth potential, though quota-based management systems will help maintain relatively stable supply-demand dynamics.

V. Forecasts
1. Price Trends
- Short-term (July–September): Anhydrous HF prices are expected to continue falling due to soft demand; electronic-grade HF prices—supported by costs and driven by demand—will keep rising, especially for G5-grade products, where price gains may surpass expectations.
- Medium-to-long-term (Q4 2024 through 2027): As demand from new-energy and semiconductor sectors grows persistently, the HF market’s overall price center is expected to rise gradually. Yet price appreciation may decelerate due to new capacity releases and raw material cost volatility.

2. Market Structure
- The HF market will evolve toward increasing demand for premium products alongside intensifying competition in lower-tier segments. Enterprises must accelerate technological upgrades and product innovation to meet evolving market requirements.

3. Industry Trends
- Persistently high raw material costs and tightening environmental regulations will propel the HF industry toward greener, higher-value development pathways, further consolidating market share among top-tier players.