Petroleum

Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Domestic Market: The price of ordinary medical-grade petroleum jelly is fluctuating in the range of 12,000 to 13,000 yuan per ton, representing an increase of approximately 3% to 5% compared to the same period last month. The price of industrial-grade petroleum jelly is between 9,000 and 10,000 yuan per ton, remaining largely stable with signs of slight upward movement in some local regions.
- International Market: Affected by rising energy costs, petroleum jelly prices in Europe and America are between 1,800 and 2,000 USD per ton, marking a 5% to 8% increase from last month. In some parts of Asia, prices have also risen by 2% to 3% due to increased demand.
2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Capacity: The operating rate of major domestic petroleum jelly producers remains at 75% to 80%. Due to equipment maintenance or raw material supply issues, the output of some enterprises has declined, leading to an overall supply reduction of approximately 5% compared to last month.
- Import Status: Import volumes have increased compared to last month, particularly from Southeast Asia, helping to offset domestic supply gaps. However, import costs have risen due to higher freight rates.
3. Demand Situation
- Pharmaceutical Sector: With the arrival of winter, an increase in skin dryness has led to a noticeable rise in demand for medical-grade petroleum jelly in skincare products and ointments, with order volumes growing by 10% to 15% compared to last month.
- Industrial Sector: Demand for industrial-grade petroleum jelly in lubrication and rust prevention remains stable. However, due to increased orders in some manufacturing enterprises, there has been a slight increase in petroleum jelly procurement.
4. Raw Material Market
- Petroleum jelly is primarily made from mineral oil. Recent frequent fluctuations in international crude oil prices have caused mineral oil prices to oscillate accordingly. While domestic mineral oil supply remains relatively stable, prices have risen by 200 to 300 yuan per ton due to international market influences, exerting pressure on petroleum jelly production costs.

Analysis and Judgment
1. Reasons for Price Increases
- Demand Pull: The growth in winter demand in the pharmaceutical sector, coupled with increased orders in the industrial sector, has driven up overall demand for petroleum jelly, prompting price increases.
- Cost Push: The rise in mineral oil prices has increased production costs for petroleum jelly. To maintain profit margins, companies have collectively raised product prices.
- Supply Reduction: The decline in output from some domestic enterprises has reduced market supply. Coupled with rising demand, this has further exacerbated the upward trend in prices.
2. Market Supply-Demand Balance
- The market is currently in a tight balance. Although import volumes have increased, domestic demand, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, has grown rapidly, resulting in a slightly tight supply situation.

Forecast
1. Price Trend Forecast
- Short-term: Driven by sustained strong demand and cost support, petroleum jelly prices are expected to continue rising. However, the pace of increase may slow down as market supply and demand conditions adjust.
- Long-term: If international crude oil prices remain stable or decline, the price of mineral oil is likely to decrease, alleviating production cost pressures for petroleum jelly. Consequently, prices may gradually stabilize or experience a slight correction.
2. Supply and Demand Forecast
- Supply: As domestic enterprises complete equipment maintenance and resolve raw material supply issues, production is expected to gradually recover, increasing market supply. Import volumes may also adjust based on market demand and pricing.
- Demand: Demand in the pharmaceutical sector is likely to remain high during the winter but may decline as spring approaches. Industrial sector demand will depend on the development of the manufacturing industry and is expected to show steady growth.