Pluronic F-127

Recent Market Intelligence Report on Polyether Polyols

I. Price Trends
- Recent Price Volatility: In the first half of 2026, the market price of polyether polyols exhibited a pattern of rising followed by falling. In Q1, prices surged rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts, with the highest soft foam polyether price reaching RMB 14,700/ton in early April and the lowest at RMB 8,000/ton in early February—resulting in a peak-to-trough spread of RMB 6,700/ton. In Q2, market fundamentals reasserted dominance: multiple new production facilities commenced operations, increasing supply pressure; concurrently, the cancellation of export tax rebates further weighed on prices, triggering a broad and sustained decline.
- Current Quotations: According to Data from Shengyishe (Business Society), as of July 21, 2026, spot quotations for polyether polyols reflect a benchmark price used for transaction settlement. However, actual transaction prices vary based on adjustment coefficients (e.g., financing costs associated with payment terms) and premiums/discounts (e.g., logistics expenses, brand differentials, and regional price variations).

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Capacity Expansion: As of June 2026, China’s total polyether polyol production capacity reached 10.8425 million tons, up 7.75% quarter-on-quarter. In H1 2026, newly commissioned capacity totaled 480,000 tons, including: Changhua Chemical’s 80,000-ton CO?-based polyether facility; Guangxi Tongkun’s 150,000-ton polyether plant; and Guangxi Huayi’s 250,000-ton polyether facility.
- Output Growth: Production volume increased by 24.9% year-on-year in H1 2026, with integrated large-scale producers maintaining steady output growth.
- Demand Side:
- Domestic Demand: Overall domestic consumption remained modest during H1, impacted by the extended Spring Festival holiday and temporary export bottlenecks. Nevertheless, end-use sectors—including construction and automotive—continued to show growing demand for polyether polyols.
- Export Performance: Cumulative exports from January to May totaled 1.3867 million tons, up 27% year-on-year. However, following implementation of the export tax rebate cancellation policy, export costs rose significantly, and export growth is expected to moderate in H2.

III. Key Market Drivers
- Policy Factors: The cancellation of export tax rebates triggered a surge in pre-policy-export activity in Q1, providing short-term price support. However, this front-loaded demand later dampened overseas absorption capacity, contributing to Q2’s price correction.
- Cost Factors: Geopolitical tensions in March elevated upstream raw material prices, fueling the initial rally; subsequently, propylene oxide (PO) prices weakened continuously from April through June, exerting persistent downward pressure on polyether pricing.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Continuous commissioning of new capacity throughout H1 led to overall supply surplus. Meanwhile, downstream sponge demand remained seasonally weak, and high prices suppressed purchasing enthusiasm—further widening the supply-demand gap.

IV. Market Outlook & Analysis
- Short-Term Outlook: Soft foam polyether prices are expected to stabilize and bottom out in H2, with a modest rebound likely in Q3 and possible range-bound or slightly declining trends in Q4. While PO prices may provide limited cost-support for soft foam polyether, their supportive effect is anticipated to be relatively weak.
- Long-Term Trend: Additional new capacity remains scheduled for commissioning, sustaining upward pressure on domestic supply. End-market demand is unlikely to undergo fundamental improvement; exports will continue serving as a critical outlet to alleviate domestic oversupply—but export growth may decelerate amid rising overseas production capacity and evolving trade environments. The imbalance of oversupply over demand is poised to re-emerge, further compressing industry profitability.

V. Forecasts
- Price Range: Soft foam polyether prices in Shandong Province are projected to trade within RMB 7,500–9,200/ton in H2 2026, with the majority of trading activity centered around RMB 8,000–9,000/ton. Based on seasonal patterns, the peak price is most likely to occur in September–October, while the trough may appear in December.
- Market Opportunities: The polyether industry remains in a technology-upgrading phase. Consumption upgrades could drive higher penetration of premium-value-added product categories. Enterprises should closely monitor downstream restocking rhythms, adjustments in factory operating rates, and coordinated production cuts among PO producers. Only when effective resonance emerges between supply and demand sides can a sustainable price recovery be achieved.