Polyisobutylene

Market Dynamics Intelligence on Polyisobutylene (PIB) in Recent Commodity Markets

I. Global Market Overview
1. Market Size and Growth
- The global polyisobutylene (PIB) market size reached $2.45 billion in 2024, and is projected to increase to $2.87 billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.3% from 2025 to 2031. - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest global market, with China leading the growth rate (CAGR 3.5%). It is expected to account for over 20% of the global share by 2031, becoming the second-largest consumer market.
2. Regional Market Performance
- **North America**: The market size was $860 million in 2024, driven primarily by fuel additive demand. Influenced by the energy transition, its market share is projected to decline to 32% by 2031. - **Europe**: Stricter environmental regulations are driving the application of high-molecular-weight PIB in renewable energy sealing fields. The market size was $737 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.1%. - **Asia-Pacific**: China shows significant growth, while Southeast Asia’s PIB demand is growing at an annual rate of over 10% due to infrastructure construction and industrialization.
3. Competitive Landscape
- The global market is highly concentrated, with major suppliers including Germany’s BASF, Japan’s Nippon Petroleum Chemical, South Korea’s Daelim, Brazil’s Braskem, and the US’s TPC Group.

II. China Market Dynamics
1. Supply, Demand, and Trade
- **Production Capacity**: Domestic total capacity is approximately 170,000 tons. Major enterprises include Sinopec Yanchang Petrochemical-BASF, Jilin Petrochemical, and Shandong Hongrui. The industry focuses mainly on low-to-medium molecular weight PIB, while high-molecular-weight PIB relies on imports. - **Imports and Exports**: - In 2024, import volume reached 104,200 tons (YoY +19.1%), with an import value of $197 million (YoY +21.6%); export volume was 17,200 tons (YoY +35.4%), with an export value of $46 million (YoY +35.3%). - From January to November 2025, import volume reached 110,000 tons, with a total import value of 1.492 billion RMB. Main source countries include the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. - **Import Dependency**: The apparent demand is expected to reach approximately 200,000 tons in 2025, resulting in an import dependency rate of about 60%.
2. Application Fields
- **Traditional Fields**: Lubricant additives (280,000 tons), tires (150,000 tons), fuel additives (30,000 tons), and adhesives & sealants (25,000 tons) dominate. - **Emerging Fields**: Demand is growing rapidly in new energy vehicles, electronics, semiconductor packaging, and biomedical applications.
3. Policies and Trends
- **Policy Support**: China has introduced multiple policies encouraging new material R&D, such as the \"Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of High-Tech Industries,\" which explicitly supports the development of the high-performance PIB industry. - **Green Production**: Enterprises are reducing pollution emissions through technological innovation, driving demand for eco-friendly PIB products (e.g., low ash content, long oil change cycle products).

III. Price Dynamics and Cost Analysis
1. Raw Material Price Volatility
- **Isobutylene**: In the first half of 2026, affected by geopolitical risks, the average price in the Shandong market was 9,182 RMB/ton (YoY +3.66%), with maximum fluctuations exceeding 5,000 RMB/ton. Prices are expected to oscillate and decline in the second half of the year due to mitigated geopolitical risks and eased supply-demand contradictions, with an estimated average price of 8,628 RMB/ton (MoM -5.88%). - **MTBE**: The estimated price for the second half of 2026 is 5,733 RMB/ton (MoM -3.84%), indicating reduced pressure on the cost side.
2. PIB Price Trends
- Recent data from Sunshishe (Institute of Commodity Information) indicates that PIB prices are influenced by raw material costs, logistics costs (C), brand premiums, and regional price differentials (premiums/discounts). Specific quotations require adjustment based on real-time data models. - The decline in isobutylene prices in the second half of the year may exert downward pressure on the PIB market. However, high-molecular-weight PIB prices are expected to remain high due to high technical barriers and strong import dependency.

IV. Analysis, Judgment, and Forecast
1. Short-Term (Second Half of 2026)
- **Price Trends**: PIB prices may face pressure due to declining isobutylene costs, but high-molecular-weight product prices will be less affected by supply constraints. - **Demand Structure**: Traditional field demand remains stable, while rapid growth in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and wind power is driving up demand for high-end PIB (e.g., high-activity HRPIB).
2. Medium-Term (2027-2028)
- **Localization Breakthrough**: The commissioning of projects such as Anqing Guanhua (120,000 tons/year) and Shandong Hongrui (200,000 tons/year) will reduce import dependency, but technical breakthroughs in high-molecular-weight PIB are still needed. - **Market Competition**: Domestic enterprises are improving product performance through technological innovation, gradually replacing imports of mid-to-low-end products, while the high-end market remains dominated by international giants.
3. Long-Term (2029-2031)
- **Market Scale**: The global PIB market CAGR is 2.3%, with China’s share rising to over 20%, becoming the core engine of global growth. - **Technological Trends**: Maturity of bio-based isobutylene technology may disrupt the traditional raw material system, and green production processes will become the industry standard.