Polyvinyl chloride

PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends
- Spot Prices: In June 2026, domestic PVC market prices continued to decline. At the beginning of June, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 PVC rebounded slightly to RMB 4,810/ton, but trading volume remained limited. As the mid-to-late month approached, the seasonal demand lull became increasingly evident, driving spot prices down steadily to RMB 4,380/ton. As of June 24, the monthly average price for Changzhou SG-5 in June stood at RMB 4,576/ton, down 5.34% month-on-month and 3.60% year-on-year. Since early July, prices have exhibited minor fluctuations: the reference price was RMB 4,305.00/ton on July 1, rose to RMB 4,425.00/ton on July 6, and adjusted to RMB 4,389.00/ton on July 7.
- Futures Prices: On July 3, 2026, the closing price of the PVC front-month futures contract was RMB 4,439.00/ton, with an intraday high of RMB 4,450.00/ton and a low of RMB 4,413.00/ton. Overall, futures prices have been trading in a range-bound, oscillatory pattern throughout July.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side
- Production & Capacity Utilization: In June 2026, both PVC production volume and overall capacity utilization remained at relatively low levels for the year. The industry’s estimated average capacity utilization rate was 69.73%, with calcium carbide-based production at 77.74% (down 1.84 percentage points month-on-month) and ethylene-based production at 50.88% (up 5.17 percentage points month-on-month). Estimated maintenance-related production losses in June totaled 259,500 tons (excluding long-term idled facilities), down 82,800 tons month-on-month. In July, scheduled maintenance activities are gradually winding down, and industry operating rates are expected to rise steadily. Although some upstream producers will conduct routine monthly maintenance—causing temporary output reductions—the net supply increase outweighs these losses. July PVC output is forecast at 1.9516 million tons, resulting in continuously ample market supply.
- Capacity Status: Domestic PVC capacity surpassed 30 million tons in 2025. In 2026, only one new facility—Jiahua Chemical’s 300,000-ton plant in Zhejiang—is scheduled to commence commercial production; thus, large-scale capacity expansion has effectively concluded. New capacity additions are predominantly ethylene-based, contributing to ongoing optimization of the supply structure.
- Demand Side
- Traditional Seasonal Slump: June marks the traditional off-season for PVC demand. Compounded by prolonged weakness in the real estate sector, downstream producers—especially those manufacturing rigid products—have maintained low operating rates. Over 60% of PVC demand originates from piping and window/door profiles, sectors tightly linked to real estate activity. In 2026, core real estate indicators—including investment and newly commenced construction area—continued to decline year-on-year, significantly suppressing PVC demand. Current downstream product manufacturing utilization stands at approximately 41%, with pipe manufacturers operating at around 34% and profile manufacturers at roughly 40%. Most small- and medium-sized product manufacturers are fulfilling only essential, just-in-time orders without advance inventory building.
- Synchronized Weakening of Domestic and External Demand: High temperatures and heavy rainfall across China have hindered on-site construction, further dampening demand for pipes and profiles—and thereby exacerbating the softness in the property-related value chain. End-user order volumes remain scarce, and downstream processors are replenishing stocks only on a minimal, as-needed basis, showing little willingness to accumulate inventory proactively. Overseas markets have also entered their rainy season, leading to persistently weak export order intake. Consequently, neither domestic nor external demand offers sustained support to the market.

III. Inventory Status
Inventory data reflect the current loose supply-demand balance and continue to weigh heavily on pricing. While producer inventories have declined slightly, substantial volumes have shifted to traders and regional distribution warehouses. Nationwide social PVC inventory has remained persistently above 1.2 million tons, with destocking proceeding more slowly than during comparable off-season periods in prior years.

IV. Cost Structure
Calcium carbide-based PVC remains unprofitable, while ethylene-based PVC faces even deeper losses. In theory, such losses should incentivize further production cuts; however, most producers—due to multiple operational and strategic considerations—continue normal operations, preventing any meaningful contraction in market supply. Calcium carbide prices have stabilized, providing modest floor support, yet they are insufficient to reverse the bearish trend.

V. Analysis & Assessment
The core challenge confronting the current PVC market is structural supply-demand imbalance. On the supply side, despite widespread losses, production cutbacks have been insufficient, and output is projected to increase. On the demand side, sluggish real estate activity and seasonal weakness jointly depress both domestic and overseas demand, resulting in low downstream operating rates and scarce order inflows. Persistently elevated inventory continues to suppress market sentiment, while cost factors offer only limited downside protection. The market currently lacks a clear catalyst for upward momentum.

VI. Outlook
In the near term, the PVC market is expected to remain in a weak, range-bound trading pattern. Rising supply amid seasonal demand softness will continue pressuring spot prices. Futures prices—lacking supportive macroeconomic or financial-market catalysts—will likely maintain similar oscillatory behavior, with cautious market participation prevailing. A sustainable, trend-reversing recovery hinges on fundamental improvements, including stabilization and recovery in the real estate sector, tangible breakthroughs in overcoming export trade barriers, and accelerated inventory drawdown. Only upon material improvement in these key fundamentals can the PVC market achieve a structural turnaround.