Tetrabutyl carbonate

Market Intelligence on Tetrabutyl CarbonateI. Price Trends- **Domestic Market**: Recently, the market price of tetrabutyl carbonate in China has shown narrow fluctuations, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 12,500 to 13,200 RMB/ton. Some high-end quotes have slightly increased due to tight supply, but actual transactions remain limited.- **International Market**: International market prices, driven by butanol raw material costs, have maintained FOB China main port prices at USD 1,600–1,680/ton, up approximately 3% from last month. However, the increase is limited due to weak demand.II. Supply and Demand- **Supply Side**: - The operating rate of major domestic producers remains stable at 75%–80%. Some enterprises have temporarily suspended operations due to environmental inspections, but overall supply has not been significantly affected. - Import volumes decreased by 12% month-on-month, primarily because international suppliers have prioritized orders from Europe and the US, tightening supply to Asia.- **Demand Side**: - Demand from downstream coatings and solvent industries remains stable, but seasonal factors have caused a month-on-month decline of 8%–10% in Q4 order volumes. - Demand from the new energy sector (e.g., lithium battery electrolytes) has grown significantly, but its share remains low (approximately 15%) and has not yet formed a primary support.III. Costs and Profits- **Raw Material Costs**: Butanol prices, influenced by crude oil fluctuations, have recently risen to 8,200–8,500 RMB/ton, increasing the production cost of tetrabutyl carbonate by approximately 500 RMB/ton.- **Profit Margins**: The industry's average gross margin has compressed to 12%–15%. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have paused order acceptance due to cost pressures, reducing the availability of low-priced goods in the market.IV. Inventory and Logistics- **Inventory Levels**: Domestic mainstream manufacturers maintain inventory turnover days at 15–20 days, within a reasonable range. Traders' inventory is low, and replenishment willingness is cautious.- **Logistics Impact**: Haze weather in northern regions has reduced loading and unloading efficiency at some ports, causing delivery delays in the East and South China regions and widening regional price differentials.V. Policy and Industry Trends- **Environmental Policies**: Multiple regions have strengthened VOCs emission controls, driving the downstream coatings industry toward water-based transformation, which may reduce long-term demand for tetrabutyl carbonate.- **Industry Events**: A major enterprise plans to add 50,000 tons/year of production capacity, expected to come online in 2025, strengthening market expectations of long-term oversupply.VI. Analysis and JudgmentVII. Forecast